Which 2024 Hits Might Follow Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars’ ‘Die With a Smile’ to No. 1 in 2025?

We have our first new Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 of 2025 — and it’s with a song that was already on the chart for 18 weeks in 2024.

With the seasonal glut of holiday songs vacating the chart in this post-Christmas tracking week, Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars‘ “Die With a Smile” jumps from No. 17 to No. 1 on the Hot 100, seizing the top spot for the first time after previously peaking at No. 2 multiple times in 2024. The song gives Gaga her sixth No. 1 on the chart, and Mars (who also ranks at No. 5 this week with the ROSÉ team up “APT.”) his ninth.

How surprised are we that the song finally claimed the top spot after such a long run? And what might be the next leftover 2024 hit to succeed it on top? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. “Die With a Smile” finally hits No. 1 on the Hot 100 in the first post-holidays week of 2025 after being held to a ceiling of No. 2 on the chart in 2024. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you that the song was finally able to get over the top?

Rania Aniftos: Maybe a 1. With the holiday songs dropping off the charts, and no new hits to claim the top spot, “Die With a Smile” was an easy contender to take over the Hot 100 given how often it plays everywhere, from department stores and restaurants to radio stations and every Spotify playlist.

Katie Atkinson: 8. When “Die” peaked at No. 2 in early December, I was certain that it had fallen victim to the inevitable avalanche of holiday hits coming to the Hot 100 top 10. But at the same time, with its biggest non-Christmas challenger being Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” — which had seemingly run its course with a record-typing 19th week atop the chart — the path cleared for the determined duet. I really shouldn’t be that surprised, though: I’ve been championing this song (on the Billboard Pop Shop Podcast and to any friends and family who will listen) since the summer, because while I liked the song when it first came out, I grew to love it even more in the months after, showing just how powerful its appeal was.

Kyle Denis: 4. For “Smile,” it was always a matter of when, not if, it would reach the top spot. Before Kendrick Lamar’s GNX chart bomb and the Mariah Carey-led holiday music takeover, “Smile” logged four straight weeks at No. 2 behind Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” — and the gap between the two was getting steadily shrinking. 

We haven’t gotten a major pop single in 2025 yet (for what it’s worth, neither Lil Baby’s nor Bad Bunny’s albums appear to be launching a breakout hit), and “Smile” was due for a turn at the top. If we look at the most recent Hot 100 top 10: “Birds of A Feather,” “Espresso,” “Lose Control” and “I Had Some Help” are all older than “Smile” and have had their time in the sun, while rising hits like “APT,” “That’s So True” and “Luther” need a bit more time to catch up to “Smile” in terms of chart points. 

Jason Lipshutz: A 6. It’s surprising whenever any autumn hit is able to power through the holiday season and come out on top to start the new year, but by November, “Die With a Smile” clearly seemed like the song that could make it happen in early 2025, if any could. Amidst the Mariah, Brenda and Wham!, Bruno and Gaga held strong near the top of the chart in December, setting themselves up to swoop in once the holiday music subsided and scoop up another No. 1 each. Once it was clear that “Die With a Smile” had real legs as a months-long hit, reaching the top of the Hot 100 was always a possibility for the duet.

Andrew Unterberger: An 8. Once it failed to edge out Shaboozey in what ended up being the historic 19th week atop the Hot 100 for “A Bar Song” — and then got buried under the avalanche of Kendrick Lamar debuts and Christmas recurrents — I thought for sure “Smile” had missed its last best chance. But it held strong, nothing else swooped in from the wings, and it gets to be a very nice kickoff to what’s sure to big a big 2025 for both artists.

2. Between Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga, which of the two artists do you think the song means more to?

Rania Aniftos: Gaga! She’s been off the music game for a moment, shifting her focus to her makeup brand and film roles, so the accomplishment probably provides a sense of validation while she’s working on her new album.

Katie Atkinson: Even though it’s a duet, “Die With a Smile” has felt more like a Bruno Mars song (featuring Lady Gaga) to me than an equal billing. But looking at the two stars’ other concurrent releases – ROSÉ’s “APT.” for Mars and Gaga’s “Disease” – “APT.” has had the much stronger start, peaking at No. 5 compared to No. 27 for the LG7 lead single, so it looks like Gaga gets the bigger boost from what feels like a Bruno-led production. (And in fact, Gaga told the Los Angeles Times last month that “Die” will be on LG7, so it obviously means a lot to her: “It’s a huge part of my album. It was like this missing piece.”)

Kyle Denis: Probably Gaga. Between the tepid response to Joker 2, Harlequin and “Disease,” it must feel nice to get a win somewhere this year. 

Jason Lipshutz: Gaga, for sure. “Die With a Smile” may announce Mars’ grand return following multiple years without a song released under his own name, but he’s already collected another top 10 hit since its release, with the ROSÉ team-up “APT.” Gaga, meanwhile, launched her next solo era with “Disease,” an electro-pop single that stalled on the Hot 100. Both artists’ respective legacies have long been secure, but from a modern commercial standpoint, “Die With a Smile” extends Gaga’s run as a hitmaker with more gravity than it does for Mars.

Andrew Unterberger: It means more about Bruno Mars, but it means more to Lady Gaga.

3. Gaga’s releases the past six months have been a little all over the place, between the big country-coded rock balladry of “Smile,” the traditional pop vocal project Harlequin and the Classic Gaga sound of “Disease.” Do you think “Smile” likely tells us anything about where she’s going next, or are the differing sounds of her two subsequent releases a sign that it was more of a one-off?

Rania Aniftos: I’m actually pretty confused with how different her releases have been lately. “Die With a Smile” feels like it could fit in her Joanne era, which makes me think that it won’t be indicative of her upcoming album. “Disease” is more in line with what I picture for her. Pop and visually and sonically creative with a dark edge. Maybe the older, more angsty sister of The Fame Monster.

Katie Atkinson: I think what likely started as a one-off will end up influencing what Gaga does next more than even she expected. If “Disease” was the original first impression from LG7, it seems that “Die” is the more lasting one, as far as pop fans are concerned. It remains to be seen whether we’ll hear that album in February, as was originally said in a Vogue interview, or whether some extra tinkering might have been done to weave her hit duet into the fabric of her next album.

Kyle Denis: I think we probably need to take all these releases as a collective indicator of what’s sure to be a sonically adventurous project. In a Q&A before the screening of her Gaga Chromatica Ball tour, Gaga said that her new music is “nothing like anything that I’ve ever made before. I love to break genre and I love to explore music. There’s something really beautiful about knowing that you will be loved no matter what you do.” 

If “Hold My Hand” (her 2022 Oscar-nominated Top Gun: Maverick power ballad), “Sweet Sounds of Heaven” (her 2023 Rolling Stones collab), “Smile” and the electroclash influences of “Disease” are anything to go by, I’m expecting LG8 to be the most rock-oriented Gaga album yet. 

Jason Lipshutz: It’s the million-dollar question: will the next Gaga album sound closer to “Disease,” which the superstar hinted at when releasing the lead single, or will it be sonically re-shuffled now that “Die With a Smile” — which will indeed appear on its track list, per Gaga — has become an unexpected smash? I’d guess that we land somewhere in the middle, with the next project veering away from the Chromatica electro-pop sound to some extent but still serving as a suitable home for a song like “Disease.” Maybe that makes the album a little less cohesive than expected, but with a few more chances taken — usually a good thing for Gaga.

Andrew Unterberger: I dunno. It’s impossible to triangulate these three Gaga releases and their wildly varying levels of commercial success and determine coherent musical project that could result from all of it. We’re really just gonna have to wait and see on this one.

4. While “Die With a Smile” hits No. 1, Mars’ other big collab of late 2024, the ROSÉ teamup “APT.,” also reaches the top five for the first time. Which of the two songs do you think will ultimately be the more significant or defining hit of this Bruno mini-era?

Rania Aniftos: Another tough question, because they’re so different and both collaborations felt so natural to him as an artist. With how much love the K-pop fans have shown Bruno thanks to “APT.,” I could see him having fun with more team-ups within that genre. He’s also so deeply funny, and fans love seeing him lean into his playful side, as we saw when Silk Sonic swept the Grammys and the rest of pop culture in 2023. 

Katie Atkinson: It has to be “Die With a Smile” because, again, it feels more like a Bruno song to me, whereas the spotlight is firmly on the arrival of ROSÉ with “APT.” Mars has offered up a veteran boost to the promising BLACKPINK breakout star, but he’s playing in her sandbox with that one, while “Die” is a patented ultra-romantic Mars moment.

Kyle Denis: I’m inclined to say “APT” because it pushes Bruno in a more interesting sonic direction than “Smile” and helps him be a part of history: ROSÉ is now the first female K-pop soloist to reach the Hot 100’s top 10 and top five. When all is said and done, however, my money is on “Smile” being the bigger hit by the numbers. 

Jason Lipshutz: “Die With a Smile” is the bigger hit across metrics, but do not underestimate the significance of the first Hot 100 top 10 hit from any member of BLACKPINK, a multi-lingual global smash that helped unlock a new listenership to a member of one of the biggest K-pop groups in history. Maybe “Die With a Smile” becomes a new-school karaoke standard, school-dance jam and radio mainstay, but I believe “APT.” will ultimately have the bigger cultural footprint.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s a little hard for me to imagine “Die With a Smile” ultimately being a particularly significant song to the career or legacy of either Lady Gaga or Bruno Mars, but obviously “APT.” is a major moment in the career of ROSÉ — and, depending on how things go from here, could potentially also end up being a pretty significant turning point for all of top 40. For that reason I feel like “APT.” is apt to be the better-remembered of the two songs in general.

5. Which song that has been active on the Hot 100 in 2024 but not yet reached the top spot do you think has the best shot of following “Smile” to No. 1?

Rania Aniftos: Justice for “APT.”! I know it took a while for some music lovers to warm up to the sound, but you can’t deny it’s one of the catchiest songs of the last six months. Additionally, I’d love to see Rosé get a No. 1 spot as a solo artist.

Katie Atkinson: My heart says that “APT.” has the juice to work its way to No. 1, but I’m also seeing that Gracie Abrams’ biggest hit yet “That’s So True” doesn’t have a music video to this point. If she could create a buzzy enough video moment (I’m imagining her movie-star boyfriend Paul Mescal playing a role, à la Sabrina Carpenter enlisting then-partner Barry Keoghan for her first Hot 100 No. 1, “Please Please Please”), she could definitely take advantage of a sleepy January.

Kyle Denis: Provided she pulls off yet another Grammy sweep, Billie could finally take “Birds” to No. 1. Kendrick Lamar could achieve something similar with “Luther” — or another GNX cut – following his own potential Grammy sweep, his Super Bowl halftime show, or both. Given their familiarity, I’d give either of those two songs the edge over “APT.” and “That’s So True.” I also have my eye on Lola Young’s “Messy,” which is a bit further down the chart at No. 25. 

Jason Lipshutz: Gracie Abrams’ “That’s So True” ended 2024 with a ton of momentum, becoming the singer-songwriter’s first top 10 hit in the same month that she helped Taylor Swift close out the Eras tour and made her Saturday Night Live debut. We’ll see how much more juice the song has over the next few weeks, but “That’s So True” could very easily keep climbing from its peak and challenge for No. 1.

Andrew Unterberger: To me, it’s a question of which radio embraces more between “APT.” and “That’s So True.” Given that one of the two performers on the former is perhaps the most consistent pop radio force of the last 15 years, my money’s on that one.