World Test Championship final 2025: Who will face South Africa at Lord’s? Australia and India the favourites

South Africa have qualified for June’s World Test Championship final at Lord’s – but who will the Proteas play next summer?

Australia and India – who are currently playing each other – are the frontrunners although Sri Lanka still retain slender hopes, but England are out of contention due to too many defeats and over-rate indiscretions across the two-year cycle.

South Africa booked their spot in the final with a nervy two-wicket win over Pakistan at Centurion as Kagiso Rabada and Marco Jansen steered their side to a target of 148 after a collapse of four wickets for three runs from 96-4 at SuperSport Park.

What does each side need?

Australia

Remaining matches = one at home to India; two in Sri Lanka

Reigning champions Australia will reach their second-straight World Test Championship final if they win their final Test against India in Sydney.

If that series – which Australia lead 2-1 after four games after victory at the MCG – ends 2-2, then the Baggy Greens will need to win one of their two matches versus Sri Lanka in early 2025.

India

Remaining matches = one in Australia

India need to win their final Test against Australia to have a chance of reaching Lord’s, but even a 2-2 draw would leave them relying on Sri Lanka winning their series at home to Australia in January.

Sri Lanka

Remaining matches = two at home to Australia

While Sri Lanka were more competitive in defeat in the second Test to South Africa, going down by 109 runs, that result, coupled with their embarrassing loss in the series-opener in Durban – a game in which they were rolled for their lowest Test score of 42 – means they are all but out of contention.

They now need Australia and India to draw at the SCG and then to sweep the Baggy Greens in their two-Test series at home in January.

How does the points system work?

Each of the nine sides – Australia, Bangladesh, England, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka and West Indies – play six series (three at home and three away).

With the teams not playing an equal number of matches, the table is determined by percentage of points won, with the 12 points awarded for a win getting you 100 per cent, the six for a tie 50 per cent and the four for a draw 33.3 per cent.

If you lose a game, you leave with nothing.

Teams can lose points for over-rate infringements, as England and Australia did during The 2023 Ashes and, most recently, the series-opening Test against New Zealand.

England were deducted a whopping 19 points in total for slow over-rates in the first, second, fourth and fifth Tests of last year’s Ashes, while their indiscretion in Christchurch cost them a further three – taking their total to a staggering 22 overall.