Why several standout QB’s teams are struggling while others are off to surprising starts

Every NFL season begins with uncertainties, but the first few weeks of the 2024 campaign have shown the fine line between starting 2-0 and 0-2 while proving how exceptionally unpredictable the start of this season has been.

The Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Rams are a combined 0-8 entering Week 3. The quarterbacks leading those teams, including Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford, have a combined 12 playoff victories, seven Pro Bowl selections, three All-Pro nods, two Comeback Player of the Year awards, two MVPs and a Lombardi Trophy.

Conversely, the Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are undefeated at 8-0. The signal-callers leading these squads — Sam Darnold, Derek Carr, Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield — are far less accomplished, boasting five Pro Bowls and one playoff win between them over 28 collective seasons.

How are four of the NFL’s best quarterbacks still winless while a pack of misfits and castoffs are thriving? There isn’t a simple answer, but several potential reasons stick out.

Darnold, Carr, Fields and Mayfield have a combined 72.9 completion percentage over the first two weeks, compared to a 63.6 completion percentage for Jackson, Burrow, Lawrence and Stafford. Meanwhile, the surprising group has scored 10 more total touchdowns (16 to six) than the usual standouts while committing the same number of interceptions (four).

One side has had the better of the play statistically and in the win column, but they’ve had the benefit of taking on weaker defenses.

Six of the eight teams faced by Darnold, Carr, Fields and Mayfield rank among the bottom half in total defense, including the New York Giants (26th), Carolina Panthers (25th), Washington Commanders (21st), San Francisco 49ers (20th), Dallas Cowboys (19th) and Atlanta Falcons (17th). 

Jackson, Burrow, Lawrence and Stafford have gone up against five top-15 defenses: the Detroit Lions (14th), Arizona Cardinals (13th), Cleveland Browns (12th), New England Patriots (11th) and Miami Dolphins (4th).

Likewise, Carr and Fields have solid defenses to back them up, with the Saints (seventh) and Steelers (fifth) each slotted among the top 10 units in football. However, it’s been the opposite for Stafford and Lawrence, as the Rams (32nd) and Jaguars (22nd) are at the bottom.

Out of the four quarterbacks sitting without a win, Stafford may be the one hit with the worst fortune. The 16-year-veteran is only the 17th QB since 1970 to throw for at least 533 yards while recording a 69.7 completion percentage or better over the first two weeks of the season and have their team start 0-2, per Stathead.

The surprising directions for eight of the league’s quarterbacks show that matchups and luck can impact results. That point has even more truth, especially early in the season when the pecking order throughout the league is still shaking out.