Why Alex Bowman is dark horse to win NASCAR Cup Series championship

Calling Alex Bowman a legitimate threat to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship would’ve been laughable as little as three weeks ago. 

Sure, he scored 12 top-10s in the first 21 races, including a win in Chicago that clinched a playoff berth. But he failed to finish inside the top 15 over the final five races of the regular season. 

Going into the playoff opener at Atlanta on Sept. 8, Bowman hadn’t scored a top-15 since Pocono on July 14 and had very little momentum to speak of. 

That all changed in Hampton, Ga., where Bowman finished fifth to open his playoff run. An 18th-place run at Watkins Glen wasn’t spectacular, but 12 stage points ensured he had a sizable cushion to the cut line at Bristol. 

As it turned out, Bowman wouldn’t need to utilize his cushion, qualifying first, finishing ninth and scoring 41 points to easily advance to the second round of the playoffs. 

Momentum has suddenly come in bunches for the No. 48 team and there’s a good reason for Bowman to be confident heading into the Round of 12. A round comprised of Kansas, Talladega and the Charlotte Roval — three of the wackiest tracks on the schedule — inspires confidence in few teams, but Bowman is a rare exception. 

Bowman finished seventh at Kansas in the spring and he hasn’t finished worse than 11th at the facility since the fall of 2021. An even better stat? Bowman’s worst finish at Kansas since joining Hendrick Motorsports is 18th. He has nine top-10s at the 1.5-mile track in 17 starts. 

As it is for every driver in the field, Talladega has been hit or miss for Bowman. However, he finished fifth at the track in April and has three top-13 finishes in his last four races at the Alabama behemoth. 

Bowman’s ace in the hole, however, will be the Charlotte Roval on Oct. 12. The road course-oval hybrid is one of the newest tracks on the circuit, but Bowman has figured it out. In five starts, he boasts two top-fives, five top-10s and an average finish of 6.4. Nothing is ever guaranteed in NASCAR, but if Bowman enters the Round of 12 cutoff race at a deficit, he’ll likely make things interesting at the cut line. 

To win the championship, though, advancing to the Round of 8 isn’t enough. The penultimate round of the playoffs consists of Las Vegas, Homestead and Martinsville. Bowman boasts victories at both Las Vegas and Martinsville, though he’s had difficulty at Homestead, only finishing inside the top 10 twice in eight starts. 

And Bowman’s home track of Phoenix has been none too kind to the Tucson, Ariz., native over the years. Bowman only has one top-10 at NASCAR’s championship venue since joining Hendrick full-time in 2018, but if he makes it to the Championship Four, anything is possible. 

With momentum behind him and a strong array of tracks awaiting the No. 48 team in the Round of 12, don’t be surprised if Bowman is still standing when the circuit heads to Las Vegas —or if he enters Phoenix with a chance to win his first title.