What betting industry’s over/under win totals tell us about NBA season

NBA training camps will open Oct. 1, so get ready to read loads of optimistic articles and posts about how team X is poised for a great season if certain players continue to develop and stay healthy.

How does one determine what’s hype and what’s not? Fear not, because there’s a tool to help us see the big picture: over/under win totals from the sports betting industrial complex. Sportsbooks utilize advanced prediction models and insider information to sift through the nonsense.

Tapping into DraftKings, which lists projected win totals in descending order, let’s examine how this season could play out:

Takeaway 1: The industry projects parity like never before, especially in the Western Conference. 

Per DraftKings, 20 of the 30 NBA teams — 12 in the West — will have win totals above 40. It is almost mathematically impossible for 12 teams to win 40-plus games in a conference. In fact, it has never happened. And there’s only been one instance in which 11 teams in a conference won 40 or more games (last season in the West). 

In other words, history tells us that at least one — but most likely a handful of those 12 Western Conference teams — will finish under 40 wins. Conversely, a couple of teams should easily outpace their win total projection as a result.

So much could go wrong for any top-heavy team that could prevent it from hitting its over, even if that team’s ceiling is fairly high. An ill-timed injury to a key player or a tough midseason road trip could throw an entire season into flux and alter the way that team approaches the trade deadline and final months of the season. 

Teams that are heavily dependent upon older or often-injured players (Bucks, Suns, Heat, Lakers, Warriors and Clippers) should scare you into wagering elsewhere (or betting the under).

On the other hand, bet the over on teams that have great depth, strong defenses and adaptive coaches because those teams typically have a higher floor in the regular season and win most of the games they are supposed to win. These teams rarely practice the art of load management or mail in the second night of a back-to-back, which could account for a couple of extra wins in a season in which stacking wins will be paramount. 

Best bets: The Thunder (56.5) and Knicks (52.5) totals seem low given their depth of talent, defensive potential and night-to-night intensity. Take the over there.

Takeaway 2: Vegas apparently is not factoring in the “failing for Cooper Flagg” tanking movement that will take full force during the second half of the season. 

As of Sept. 20, the teams projected for the four lowest win totals in the NBA are the Nets (19.5), Wizards (21.5), Blazers (22.5) and Pistons (25.5). Last season, six teams won 25 or fewer games. The biggest losers were the Pistons (only 14 wins), Wizards (15) and Blazers (21).

Brooklyn won 32 games last season, but in the offseason, traded its best player (Mikal Bridges) to the New York Knicks, re-acquiring the rights to its 2025 first-round pick in the deal. The Nets know they’re going to stink this season. 

Don’t forget that Duke’s Flagg, the crown jewel of the 2025 NBA Draft, looks to be a generational prospect. Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper of Rutgers, French pro Nolan Traore and Baylor’s V.J. Edgecombe are projected to be potential franchise players, too. 

Most of the league’s bottom-feeders own the rights to their first-round picks in 2025, so you can expect them to brazenly tank during the second half while the rest of the league dukes it out for playoff positioning.

Best bets: Bet the under on Nets, Wizards, Blazers and Pistons.

Takeaway 3: The betting industry expects San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama to make one heck of a leap.

Per DraftKings, the Spurs, who won 22 games last season, are projected for 36.5 wins. Sure, they added old man Chris Paul, 39, and rookie Stephon Castle, but are the Spurs really going to improve by at least 15 games in Wemby’s second year? That would be a historical anomaly to improve by that many games in Year 2, even for a once-in-a-lifetime player such as Wembanyama

In 2004-05, LeBron James’ Cavaliers only improved by seven wins over his rookie season, when Cleveland won 35 games. In his second season, Kevin Durant’s 2008-09 Oklahoma City Thunder won 23 games, only three more than during his rookie season. Luka Doncic’s Mavericks won 33 games during his rookie season and 43 the following season, but that was after Dallas added Kristaps Porzingis. 

In most cases, the jump in wins typically happens in the third season for prodigies such as Wemby. 

Best bet: Smash the under.

Bonus bet | “The Curse of Russell Westbrook”: Hit the under on the win total for the Denver Nuggets (51.5). Westbrook hasn’t played on a team that has won more than 51games since 2015-16, his final season with KD in Oklahoma City.