Week 4 AFC predictions: Struggling Bengals crater, but these AFC North RBs won’t

Change can come in a flash in the NFL. 

Look no further than Cincinnati, where the Joe Burrow-powered Bengals are 0-3, and Miami (1-2), where the loss of QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) has rocked the franchise. 

Will Cincinnati finally turn the corner on the road at Carolina, where former Bengals QB Andy Dalton will start? Could the Dolphins turn to another QB to replace Tagovailoa?

Ahead of Week 4 games, Yardbarker NFL writers offer a prediction for every AFC team.

BUFFALO BILLS (3-0) | QB Josh Allen enjoys a 300-yard, three-TD performance | Allen solidified himself as the early MVP front-runner during Buffalo’s Week 3 drubbing of Jacksonville, throwing for 263 yards and four touchdowns before being replaced by Mitch Trubisky early in the fourth quarter. The two-time Pro Bowler should not only carry that momentum into a pivotal road clash with Baltimore, but he should also be even more productive. The Ravens have allowed the most passing yards this season (946).

MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-2) | Tyler Huntley starts at QB, throws two touchdown passes | After watching fill-in starter Skylar Thompson leave a 24-3 road loss to the Seahawks in Week 3 with a rib injury, the Dolphins could be forced to start their third different QB. Thompson’s backup, Tim Boyle, also struggled mightily against Seattle, so Miami should turn to the recently acquired Huntley, who is positioned to have a productive outing at home against the struggling Titans thanks to Miami’s stellar receiving corps.

NEW YORK JETS (2-1) | QB Aaron Rodgers takes a slight step back | Rodgers turned back the clock during in a Week 3 home win over the Patriots, throwing for 281 yards and two touchdowns, but the four-time MVP shouldn’t have as much success at home against a formidable Broncos pass defense. Considering Denver has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (150.33) so far this season, expect Rodgers to pass for less than 190 yards, just as he did in Weeks 1 and 2.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-2) | Offensive line’s struggles continue | After allowing just one sack in the opener, the offensive line has allowed 10 sacks over the past two games, the fourth most among teams during that span. Although DT Javon Hargrave is out with a likely season-ending triceps injury, the 49ers’ rush should have little trouble at home collecting five sacks against New England in what feels like a get-right game for San Francisco. — Colum Dell

AFC West

DENVER BRONCOS (1-2) | CB Patrick Surtain II holds Jets WR Garrett Wilson to 50 receiving yards or less | Per Pro Football Focus, Surtain has only allowed six receptions for 63 yards and no TDs in three games. He will shut down Wilson — who has averaged a career-low 10 yards per reception through three games — in Sunday’s road matchup against New York (2-1). 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (3-0) | TE Travis Kelce catches his first touchdown | Through three games, Kelce only has eight receptions for 69 yards, but he will rebound in Sunday’s road game against the Chargers. On Tuesday, ESPN’s Kris Rhim reported the league upheld its one-game suspension for Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. for repeatedly violating player safety rules. James’ absence will allow Kelce to exploit L.A.’s shorthanded secondary. 

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (1-2) | QB Gardner Minshew II throws for two TDs | Per NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, Vegas is sticking with Minshew as its starter, despite Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce recently suggesting backup QB Aidan O’Connell may replace him. Minshew will show why he deserves to keep his job in Sunday’s home game vs. Cleveland (1-2), which ranks 20th in the league in points allowed (22.3). 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (2-1) | Offense fails to score 20 points for second consecutive game | On Monday, Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh confirmed X-rays were negative for the ankle of starting QB Justin Herbert, whom he expects to undergo an MRI. Whether Herbert plays or not, L.A. will struggle at home against the Chiefs, who have held the Chargers to 17 points or less in their past two games. — Clark Dalton

AFC North

BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-2) | CB Nate Wiggins records first INT | The defense is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game (50) in the league. That means it will likely be up to quarterback Josh Allen’s passing to win the game for the Bills (3-0). Allen, who has seven TD passes and zero interceptions this season, will welcome that challenge, but it will give Wiggins more opportunities to make his first career interception against Buffalo, which lacks a clear No. 1 wide receiver.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-3) | Fall to 0-4 as defensive struggles continue | The Bengals are 0-3 for the first time in the Joe Burrow era, but it’s not because of him (746 yards passing, five TDs and zero interceptions). Carolina (1-2) seems rejuvenated at QB with Andy Dalton, who put up 36 points on a good Raiders defense in Week 3. The former Bengal could score even more at home against Cincinnati’s struggling defense, which allowed 38 points to a young Commanders team in Week 3. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-2) | RB Jerome Ford doubles average yards per game | The Browns (1-2) had a lot of confidence in Ford after he rushed for 813 yards and four touchdowns in relief for the injured Nick Chubb last season. Through three games, however, he is averaging roughly 48 rushing yards per game. That should change this week at the Raiders (1-2), who are allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game (152.7) in the league.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-0) | RB Najee Harris has 150-yard outing | Harris hasn’t rushed for more than 70 yards in a game this season, but he has a great chance to more than double that total in Week 4 on the road against the Colts (1-2). Indianapolis is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (179) and has already allowed two 150-yard rushers this season (Houston’s Joe Mixon with 159 and Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs with 151). Harris could have even more opportunities if hobbled running back Jaylen Warren, who was “pulled from the game” last week, is unable to play. — Aaron Becker

AFC South

HOUSTON TEXANS (2-1) | QB C.J. Stroud bounces back, posts first 300-yard outing of 2024 season | The Texans’ opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3), rank 30th (252.3 YPG) against the pass, setting Stroud up nicely for a rebound after a lackluster outing (20-of-31, 215 yards, one touchdown, two turnovers) against the Minnesota Vikings during a 34-7 loss in Week 3. The second-year QB is 5-1 after a defeat, averaging 303.3 YPG and a 65.5 completion percentage. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1-2)  | RB Jonathan Taylor’s 100-yard streak ends | After recording only 48 yards on 16 carries in Week 1, Taylor has surpassed the century mark in back-to-back games, averaging 106.5 yards and six yards a carry. However, Taylor and the Colts will have trouble on the ground at home against the undefeated Steelers (3-0), who’ve allowed opponents to rush for only 71.3 yards per game, second fewest in the NFL behind the Baltimore Ravens (50).

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (0-3) | QB Trevor Lawrence gets benched | Following a 47-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills on “Monday Night Football,” head coach Doug Pederson told reporters “everything’s on the table” regarding personnel changes. That includes Lawrence. On the road against the Texans, Pederson’s patience will finally run out with the former No. 1 pick, who has lost nine consecutive starts and has a 52.8 completion percentage (30th), the lowest of his four-year career through the first three games of a season.

TENNESSEE TITANS (0-3) | Another turnover-fest for Will Levis | The Titans have the worst turnover differential in the NFL (-7) in large part because of Levis, who has eight giveaweays. On Monday on the road at Miami, the second-round pick will add to this total of 16 turnovers in only 12 NFL games. — Mike Santa Barbara