Usyk vs Fury 2: How will Tyson Fury change approach in rematch live on Sky Sports Box Office?

Tyson Fury has never been hit so frequently as he was by Oleksandr Usyk – and punch stats show he is facing a daunting task to gain revenge in the rematch.

Fury’s perfect record and WBC title reign were ended by Usyk in their first fight in May as the Brit was badly hurt and beaten on points by the Ukrainian in their undisputed world heavyweight title showdown in Saudi Arabia.

This Saturday, live on Sky Sports Box Office, Fury will attempt to deliver another rematch triumph, as he did against Deontay Wilder in February 2020.

Using Compubox stats, we delve into how Fury approached his bout against Usyk and examine his rematch with Wilder for clues as to how he must adapt.

When Fury lost a split decision to Usyk, stats reveal the Brit was outpunched for the first time since his punch stats were published in late 2018 – with Usyk landing 170 punches, compared to Fury’s 157.

Additionally, Usyk and Otto Wallin are the only fighters on record to register higher punch accuracies than Fury during a fight against him.

The chart below plots how many punches both fighters landed by round in May and shows how they were evenly matched until Fury became more dominant in the fifth and sixth – before Usyk raised the intensity and Fury dropped off, culminating in a ninth-round standing count for Fury, just before the bell.

The chart below shows how many accurate ‘power punches’ Fury landed by round – defined by Compubox as any punch that is not a jab, including hooks, crosses, uppercuts and body shots – compared with his career average.

The results suggest Usyk’s growing intensity during the fight was bolstered by Fury exceeding his typical exertions in the earlier rounds before losing steam and underperforming his average punch power in the latter rounds.

Indeed, Fury faced far more accurate power punches than his career average, notably during those pivotal, latter rounds – peaking in the ninth, when the bell saved Fury.

So, what must Fury do to outbox the Ukrainian later this month? For that, we can revisit Fury’s most recent rematch against Wilder in 2020 – one year after judges delivered a split draw in Los Angeles.

How did Fury bounce back from Wilder?

The first encounter with Wilder produced one of the most stunning recoveries in boxing history when Fury was floored in the last round and appeared motionless on the canvas, before rising to his feet.

The punch stats below reveal how, in terms of the sheer quantity of punches thrown, Wilder outpunched Fury – but the Brit outboxed the American in every other department.

Fury landed more punches in every round bar three – the seventh, ninth and 12th. However, a similar trend to the Usyk fight emerges, where Fury appears dominant in the first six rounds before his opponent gains momentum.

What did Fury change when the two faced each other again in Nevada? First and foremost, he outpunched Wilder across the board – including the sheer volume of punches thrown.

But, most notably, Fury upped the ante during the earlier rounds before claiming a seventh-round stoppage win.

Fury landed considerably more punches during those opening rounds and landed 18 punches in the fifth, before another 17 in the sixth. As a result, Wilder failed to land more than five in a round after the second.

Arguably, the chart below highlights Fury’s approach best: The Gypsy King threw only four ‘power punches’ at Wilder during the fifth in 2018 – one year later, he threw 40 in the same round.

The chart shows a spike in sustained intensity at the fourth round.

How will Fury adapt to beat Usyk when the pair resume their rivalry for their rematch?

Fury responded to Wilder with greater intensity from the fourth. However, the Brit still surpassed his averages for punches thrown, punches landed and power punches thrown in the fourth and fifth against Usyk – and still suffered his first professional defeat.

And, here lies the dilemma. Does Fury raise the early intensity more – to match the levels of Wilder II – or does he hold that energy and intensity for the final rounds, when Usyk capitalised in May?

The early signs in fight week are that Fury will weigh in heavier than he did for the first bout, an approach that could suggest he will look to unleash early power on Usyk.

Asked about his expected weight gain by Sky Sports on Monday, Fury replied: “I will knock him out, for sure.”

Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury’s huge heavyweight rematch will be live on Saturday December 21 on Sky Sports Box Office. Book Usyk v Fury 2 now!