Tesla set to report Q3 deliveries ahead of robotaxi event

Tesla is set to report third-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers on Wednesday. 

Analysts are expecting Elon Musk‘s automaker to report about 463,310 deliveries, according to estimates compiled by FactSet StreetAccount. That would include about 435,900 of Tesla’s Model 3 sedans and Model Y SUVs.

Tesla reported deliveries of 435,059 and production of 430,488 vehicles for the same period a year ago, before it was selling the Cybertruck. More recently, Tesla reported deliveries of 443,956 and production of 410,831 vehicles for the second quarter of 2024.

If Tesla meets analysts’ expectations that would represent a 6.5% year-over-year increase for deliveries after declines in the first and second quarters of 2024.

Deliveries are not defined in Tesla’s financial disclosures, but they are the closest approximation to units sold reported by the company.

In the third quarter, as it did earlier this year, Tesla continued to offer a variety of incentives and financing plans to drive sales volumes, particularly in the largest market for EVs in the world, mainland China.

Tesla hasn’t given specific guidance for the full year of deliveries in 2024, but the company has said it expects a lower delivery growth rate this year versus last. Wells Fargo, pointing to this lack of guidance, said in a note that it’s expecting 1.63 million full-year deliveries for Tesla and third-quarter deliveries at around 440,000, below consensus.

Goldman Sachs last week said it expects Tesla deliveries and production “to come in-line with consensus, largely driven by the strength in the China market.” Goldman Sachs recommended buying call options ahead of the Wednesday report.

Robotaxi day in focus

Shares in the EV maker are up more than 20% over the past month, in anticipation that deliveries could improve year over year and sequentially in the third quarter, and ahead of the company’s robotaxi day on Oct. 10.

Tesla plans to host investors and fans at its “We, Robot” marketing event at a Warner Bros. Discovery movie studio in Los Angeles.

The automaker is expected to show off the design of a “dedicated robotaxi,” which Musk has referred to previously as the CyberCab. Tesla may also provide updates on its humanoid robotics project “Optimus” and other automotive and AI-driven products and services.

Tesla EV sales and revenue fell in the first half of 2024, and the company still has yet to deliver a self-driving system that can function as a robotaxi without a human driver at the wheel ready to steer or brake at any time. Tesla also renamed its premium driver assistance option to Full Self-Driving Supervised, tacking on a disclaimer-style term at the end.

Meanwhile, several rivals in the autonomous vehicle industry have begun producing robotaxis, and operating commercial robotaxi services. Rivals include Alphabet-owned Waymo in the U.S., and Pony.ai and Baidu in China. Amazon-owned Zoox is preparing a launch of a commercial robotaxi service in the U.S. as well.

Tesla brand erosion

Some customer interest in buying Tesla vehicles has been chilled by the brand’s strong association with Musk. 

The company’s favorability among both liberal and conservative consumers fell in July, according to CivicScience. Tesla favorability dropped with Democrats to 18% in July, down from 39% in January, and it declined among Republicans to 22%, down from 36% in January. 

Musk — who also leads SpaceX, X and xAI — has long shared provocative posts on social media, but in recent years, he’s become less filtered and more vociferous online about his right-wing political beliefs.

In July, he publicly endorsed former President Donald Trump, and he frequently posts screeds on X concerning illegal immigration, election fraud, crime, violence and other flashpoint issues.

He has shared political misinformation and deepfakes with his massive online following on X, according to reports by The Associated Press, CNN, NBC News, The New York Times and others. Before Musk acquired Twitter, now known as X, his feed focused more on Tesla and SpaceX, according to an analysis by The Washington Post.

Among the posts Musk recently spread on X were false claims that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating people’s pets. The Springfield Police Division, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and other local groups have all said the claims were baseless.

It remains to be seen whether left-leaning customers’ view of Musk will weigh on deliveries this year. Pew Research has found that Democrats have a much more favorable view of battery-electric vehicles and are more likely to buy them than Republicans in the U.S.