Tesla robotaxi event comes after a decade of unfulfilled promises from Elon Musk

With Tesla’s hotly anticipated robotaxi event hours away, investors will soon get a glance at what CEO Elon Musk has called the CyberCab.

After a decade of unfulfilled promises to deliver autonomous vehicles, capable of traveling reasonable distances safely without a human at the wheel, there’s a hefty dose of skepticism about what Tesla can do technologically, and when its robotaxi might actually hit the market.

The robotaxi day, or “We, Robot,” event is scheduled to begin at 7:00 p.m. Pacific time at a Warner Bros. studio in Burbank, California and will be livestreamed via X.

Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA, cautioned in a preview on Oct. 4, that conditions at a closed course on a movie studio lot could make a Tesla robotaxi look more advanced than it would be in normal traffic and on public roads. CFRA has a hold rating on the stock.

Tesla shares dipped about 1% on Thursday to $238.77. They’re now down almost 4% for the year and more than 40% below their record reached in 2021.

The event comes a week after Tesla reported third-quarter deliveries of 462,890, lifting the number to 1.35 million for the year so far. For all of last year, Tesla reported deliveries of 1.81 million.

Bullish analysts at firms including Wedbush, ARK and RBC Capital Markets expressed optimism in their reports about the company’s ability to keep growing sales long-term, while delivering higher-tech products, including a long-delayed autonomous vehicle, humanoid robotics and other AI-driven products and services.

Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Wednesday, that he’ll be at the event and expects to test the robotaxi.

Munster, a long-time Tesla bull, said he thinks the company will roll out robotaxis in some cities by the end of 2025. He’s also expecting Tesla to announce plans to produce an affordable EV, possibly just a stripped down version of its Model 3, and an electric van.

He said that while he expects the stock to be down after the event, it could “make new highs” over the next two years as deliveries start to accelerate.

Tesla was once seen as a pioneer in autonomous vehicle development, but has never managed to deliver or demonstrate robotaxi technology. The company is now considered a laggard.

Alphabet’s Waymo in the U.S., and a number of Chinese firms, are all operating commercial robotaxi services today.

Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report on Wednesday that if Tesla can launch a “level 4” robotaxi, meaning it can operate without a driver at the wheel, using its current “suite of hardware and software,” it would result in a cost-per-mile advantage relative to peers.

In addition to missed deadlines, Tesla has had safety issues with the its driver assistance systems, which are currently marketed as the standard Autopilot and premium Full Self-Driving (Supervised) options.

Missy Cummings, a professor at George Mason University and director of the Mason Autonomy and Robotics Center, said Tesla leaders should be able to say how they’re solving a problem known as “phantom braking,” which refers to instances when vehicles equipped with ADAS apply their brakes unexpectedly, even while driving at highway speeds, with no visible obstacles around them.

Tesla’s phantom braking problems are the subject of an ongoing investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Cummings, who previously served as a senior safety advisor to the regulator, told CNBC, “If they can’t solve phantom braking for a level 2 car, they can’t solve it for level 4 or 5 vehicle.” Level 2 vehicles include driver assistance systems.

According to data tracked by NHTSA starting in 2021, there have been 1,399 crashes in which Tesla driver assistance systems were engaged within 30 seconds of the crash, and 31 of these collisions resulted in reported fatalities.

Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Guidehouse Insights, said Musk or other Tesla executives should be able to say exactly how they plan for their vehicles to operate in different weather, such as fog, rain, snow, and lighting, or in dark tunnels.

He also wants Tesla executives to say whether they will accept full liability for the operation of these vehicles, which he calls “table stakes for a true robotaxi without human controls.”

Finally, Abuelsamid wants to know if Tesla plans to own and operate its robotaxis or lease or sell them to consumers and fleet operators.

“Many companies have made progress on the automated driving technology side,” Abuelsamid said. “But they’ve faltered when it came to figuring out a business model that could be profitable. Tesla has a lot of challenges to overcome and I want to know how all the pieces fall into place.”

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