Republican Mike Lawler holds slim lead over Democrat Mondaire Jones in key NY House race: poll

Freshman GOP Rep. Mike Lawler holds a narrow advantage over former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones in the lower Hudson Valley’s battleground 17th District, according to a survey of likely voters conducted by Jones’ campaign.

In a three-way ballot test, Lawler leads Jones, 46%-43%, with Working Families Party candidate Anthony Frascone at 5% and the remainder undecided.

In a head-to-head race, Lawler leads Jones by just two points, 47%-45%, with another 7% undecided.

Jones pollster GBAO said the former congressman had cut into Lawler’s lead from early August, when a prior survey showed the Republican incumbent led Jones by 7 points — 47%-40% — with Frascone at 6% and the rest undecided.

Over the past few weeks, Jones and Democrats have blanketed the airwaves with ads slamming Lawler over abortion, which they hope will turn voters against the congressman.

The GBAO survey, first reported by Politico, has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.4 percentage points, which makes the race a toss-up, according to Jones’ pollster.

The polling memo also trumpeted that Lawler’s popularity had dropped by five percentage points in recent weeks, but still had him above water with 44% of voters viewing him favorably and 39% viewing him unfavorably — while leaving Jones’ Q rating unstated.

“Lawler’s record, now under scrutiny, has moved the race to within the margin of error, but Democrats will need to continue the heavy investment we’ve seen over the last two weeks to keep the momentum going and put Jones in the lead,” the memo said.

Lawler’s campaign scoffed at the claims.

“Despite a massive spending advantage thanks to far-left special interests – and in a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 80,000 voters – Mondaire still can’t cook a poll that shows him ahead,” said campaign spokesman Chris Russell.

“The fact that he omitted his image ratings tells you how unpopular he is and how much voters know about his radical and extreme record – and that’s before we begin our biggest ad spend,” Russell added. “Make no mistake, this is a terrible result for the DCCC [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee] and demonstrates what an awful candidate Mondaire Jones is and how strong of a position Mike Lawler is in heading towards Election Day.”

The 17th district takes in the lower Hudson Valley and includes Rockland County, parts of Westchester and Putnam County.

Jones is seeking a comeback to Congress after two years in the political wilderness.

Following redistricting in 2022, Jones decided to relocate and ran for the House seat in the 10th District, covering lower Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn. He lost in the Democratic primary to now-Rep. Dan Goldman.

Jones shifted back to the 17th District this year to take on Lawler, who defeated ex-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, then chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm.

The poll surveyed 500 likely general election voters in the 17th District Aug. 8-12 and Sept. 15-18.