New swing-state polling puts Trump in the White House

The latest swath of battleground surveys suggests Donald Trump will return to the White House — and swing-state voters will pave the way.

Emerson College polling conducted between Sept. 15 and 18 in seven electoral battlegrounds finds the former president leads in five and would get 281 electoral votes if this map holds up, pushing him over the winning threshold of 270 with room to spare.

Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia (50% to 47%), Arizona and Wisconsin (49% to 48% in both states), Nevada (48.4% to 47.7%), and Pennsylvania (48% to 47%), giving him 62 electoral votes total from the battlegrounds.

Harris is ahead in North Carolina (49% to 48%) and Michigan (49% to 47%), good for 31 votes from that pair of swing states.

Per Emerson’s executive director, Spencer Kimball, this is actually a static race with marginal movement since the last round of polling before the presidential debate.

“In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump lost a point, and Harris gained a point. Trump’s support stayed the same in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Harris’ support decreased by a point in Michigan and Nevada, and stayed the same in Wisconsin. In Georgia, Trump gained 3 points and Harris lost 2,” Kimball said Thursday, contextualizing the numbers.

It’s not all good news here for Republicans, though.

Despite voters saying they’re backing Trump, majorities in each state think Harris will win, with 53% of North Carolinians, 52% of Michiganders, 51% each in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and 50% of Nevada voters believing the Democrats will hold the White House no matter how they personally vote.

As other polling has shown, Trump’s appeal atop the ticket isn’t helping down the ballot, where Republicans lag behind their party’s standard bearer in major races in every state.

In Arizona, Kari Lake runs 7 points behind Trump, trailing Democrat Ruben Gallego 42% to 49% in the race for the Senate.

Mike Rogers is also 5 points behind Trump’s pace in the Michigan Senate race: Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads 47% to 42%.

Trump’s whisker-thin Nevada lead isn’t saving Sam Brown in the Senate race either; he’s on track to lose to Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen, 41% to 48%.

North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson has lagged in every poll against Democrat Josh Stein, and that’s the case here too, as he trails 40% to 48%.

Likewise, Republican Senate candidates David McCormick of Pennsylvania and Eric Hovde of Wisconsin are also running behind Trump’s pace.

McCormick trails incumbent Democrat Bob Casey 42% to 47%, while Hovde trails Tammy Baldwin 46% to 49%.