With Donald Trump’s inauguration imminent, the Chagos deal appears to be on ice

Once again the fate of a group of islands in the Indian Ocean is focusing minds in Westminster.

“There’s no point denying it’s a mess”, a backbench Labour MP tells me, as the latest twist in the Chagos deal unfolds.

On a day when we expected the Mauritian government to rubber stamp the plans to take over sovereignty of the archipelago from the UK, any agreement appears to be on ice.

The prime minister’s spokesperson said it is “perfectly reasonable for the US administration to consider the detail”.

Translation: the deal could not get over the line before Donald Trump’s inauguration and its future might now be in the balance.

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While Joe Biden was supportive of the deal, those close to Mr Trump suggest he may not feel the same. But it’s not clear how far his own views would take him.

The agreement for the UK to hand over the islands – but maintain a 99-year lease for Diego Garcia military base – was first announced in October, but weeks later the new Mauritian prime minister said he had reservations about the agreement.

Since then every twist and turn has sparked political debate here.

“Why does the PM think the British people should pay to surrender something that is already ours?” Kemi Badenoch shot across the despatch box today.

Her PMQs performance may have been somewhat scattergun, but does make a key point: the cost of the Chagos deal to the British taxpayers is unknown. It could cost billions of pounds.

But this isn’t just about money. Conservative and Reform MPs are pushing on the question of sovereignty and national security.

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There is also the not-insignificant point of what all this means for Chagosians, some of whom have criticised the deal saying they were not consulted.

One thing is for sure. There is little chance of a deal now before Mr Trump’s return to office.

How far an unpredictable man is willing to go to undo the deal is anyone’s guess.

Decades of uncertainty over the future of the Chagos islands isn’t over yet.