Nigel Farage ‘could become PM’ as pollster outlines horror scenario for Starmer

An expert has said that Nigel Farage could be Prime Minister after the next General Election as Reform UK surges in the polls.

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, talked about the latest number earlier today, suggesting a scenario in which Mr Farage could be installed as Prime Minister.

The pollster presented a graph on GB News today, stating that Reform had “gained a lot of votes” over the last six months, and these were “mostly from Labour”.

At the moment, Reform sits on 21.9 per cent, with both Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch’s parties on 26 per cent.

He said: “The graph here is showing is the number of seats that Reform will win, under our predictions, against the vote share they get.

“But the interesting thing is that, at the moment, they’re on 15 per cent support and just five seats. If they get up to 25 per cent support in the polls, they get about 100 seats.”

“So, depending how many people support them, the more support they get, the more seats they get.

If an election were held tomorrow, the pollster suggested that the party could attain “40 or so” seats.

Mr Baxter then presented a scenario in which Mr Farage could become Prime Minister.

He said: “But the the really interesting thing for the year ahead is, if they do a bit better than 25 [per cent], if they can push through that, they might or they might not, but if they get up to 28 per cent, it’s only slightly more than that, then they’re actually the largest party in the House of Commons, and Nigel Farage might be the Prime Minister with Conservative support.”

This only requires another 6% of support in the polls from where the party finds itself now, he added.

Mr Baxter also discussed data about the popularity of party leaders.

Some people think that Mr Farage is “Prince Charming”, he said, as the Reform UK leader has the largest amount of positive views from the public (30%), according to polling.

Sir Keir Starmer is “The Grinch” according to many, with more than 50% negative polling.

A Reform UK source told Express.co.uk earlier this week: “The 2025 local elections – assuming they are not cancelled! – are a huge opportunity for Reform UK to cement our position as a truly national contender for power.

“Of course we’re looking to consolidate our position in the areas we made our breakthrough in the General Election, all of which are currently scheduled to have council elections next year.

“But polling and council by-elections show our message is gaining traction far beyond these. We’re coming for the Tories in the south and we’re coming for Labour in the north.

“We’ve already established hundreds of local branches, and we’re well on the way to covering every constituency. Now we’re rolling out the tools and materials to the branches so they can deliver winning campaigns right across the country.”