Figures show how Nigel Farage’s Reform could be biggest party as Labour crumbles

Bombshell figures have shown how Reform UK could be the biggest party in the House of Commons as support for Labour crumbles.

The analysis by ElectoralCalculus is based on Labour and the Conservatives at about 25-30% of the vote share in terms of how people intend to cast their ballot.

Reform UK was steadily behind them at 22% as 2024 came to an end. This represented a 7% increase from the 15% Nigel Farage’s party attained in July.

If the party continues to gain support, this could result in more seats in the House of Commons.

ElectoralCalculus says that with 28% of the public’s vote, just 6% more than their current support, Reform would become the largest party with just under 200 seats.

In this scenario, Reform UK could govern in a coalition with the Conservatives, likely with Nigel Farage as the Prime Minister and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch as a Deputy Prime Minister, experts suggest.

ElectoralCalculus also stated: “If their vote share increases to 31%, Reform would get an overall Commons majority. In this case, Reform could govern on their own and Nigel Farage would be Prime Minister and able to choose his cabinet freely.

“This would represent an exceptional scenario, as it would be the first time in over a century when neither of the two British mainstream parties, Labour or the Conservatives, would be in power.

“While these projections could be achievable, given their opponents’ weaknesses, there is no guarantee that Reform can get there. But there is a unique opportunity for Reform, as the main two parties have not been so vulnerable since the Labour party displaced the old Liberal party in 1922.”

Reform UK’s Chairman, Zia Yusuf, said of the analysis on X: “Bad news for those who think Reform can’t win the next election because of First Past the Post.

“We are now entering extremely steep point of the seat return curve. Unprecedented.”