Toronto, Philadelphia and D.C. battle it out for MLS East’s final playoff position

But which team is most likely to qualify? And which team is most likely to put together a deep playoff run from the final seed?

Toronto FC

Current position: 9th

Games played: 33

Record: 11W 18L 4D

At first glance, Toronto appears to be in pole position to make the playoffs: it’s sitting pretty in the final qualification slot with more wins than its competitors. But don’t let the table fool you. Toronto has a game in hand over Philadelphia and D.C., which means it has just one game left to play, while the others have two. Toronto can earn a maximum of three points between now and the end of the season; Philadelphia and D.C. can earn a maximum of six.

And who is Toronto’s last remaining game against? Why, Supporters’ Shield winner Inter Miami, of course. Miami is a few wins away from clinching MLS’s all-time regular-season points record and will be hungry to take down Toronto at home. Plus, Toronto will compete without the help of Federico Bernardeschi, who received his third red card last weekend against the New York Red Bulls.

It’s hard to see Toronto pulling through to hang onto its playoff place. With a -20 goal differential, an absent superstar and a match against the best team in the league, Toronto is widely expected to drop out of playoff contention this weekend.

Philadelphia Union

Current Position: 10th

Games Played: 32

Record: 9W 13L 10D

Poor Philadelphia has suffered some of the worst luck of anyone during this MLS season. Fans and pundits feel that the team really doesn’t belong this far down the table, and the stats back that up. Philadelphia has a goal difference of +9 this season, while Toronto and D.C., its two playoff challengers, are at -20 and -16, respectively.

These final two games could turn around Philadelphia’s season and secure a place in the playoffs — and anything could happen from there. Philadelphia shrugged aside its underwhelming MLS form to storm to the semifinals in this summer’s Leagues Cup; after all, it’s known as a give-no-quarter ‘tournament’ team. But before Philadelphia can get there, it has to battle through two of MLS East’s toughest teams: the Columbus Crew, hopping mad after losing the Shield to Miami, and FC Cincinnati, on the hunt for the number two seed in the East.

It won’t be easy, but Philadelphia’s path to the postseason is far more achievable than Toronto’s. If it can limit damage against Columbus and Cincinnati, it could leapfrog Toronto and block D.C. from the final playoff spot. And if it does, Philadelphia is the best-equipped team of the three to pull together a deep postseason run from the final seed.

D.C. United

Current position: 11th

Games played: 32

Record: 9W 13L 10D

Coming in hot with an identical record to Philadelphia, D.C. is the lowest-ranked team of the three but the most likely one to pull through and qualify for the playoffs. Why? There are two reasons: its run-in and its talisman striker, Christian Benteke.

There’s no question that D.C. has the easiest matches of anyone. At the same time, Toronto plays the top seed in the East, and Philadelphia plays the second and third; D.C. will be battling against New England and Charlotte, who are 14th and 7th, respectively. Both games are winnable. D.C. enters them after a confidence-building last-second victory over Nashville SC.

And while D.C. may be 11th in the standings, its striker Christian Benteke is running away with the MLS Golden Boot. He’s scored 22 goals in the league so far — three more than LAFC’s Denis Bouanga in second — and he’ll be keen to score more.

Can D.C. make the playoffs? It’s in the best position to do so out of everyone in contention. Can it make a deep playoff run like Philadelphia, though? Probably not. Benteke is a legend, but D.C. has struggled against fast-moving teams like Inter Miami… and Inter Miami is precisely who it will face in the first round of the postseason.

Toronto, Philadelphia and D.C. return to MLS action this Saturday, Oct. 5.