Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR’s return to Las Vegas

The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs roll onto the Round of Eight this weekend, with the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on tap for Sunday afternoon. It’s the Cup Series’ second trip to Sin City in 2024, and in the spring, Kyle Larson earned a dominant victory in the Pennzoil 400. 

Unsurprisingly, Larson is the odds-on favorite once again, but is he the one to put your money on? Here are three drivers to watch — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — as well as one to avoid in the city where all bets are off.

Favorite: Christopher Bell (+300, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

It’s just too tempting to take Larson this week; he’s the winner of the past two Cup Series races in Vegas and listed at +300 on the odds sheet. He’s coming off of one of his trademark curbstompings at the Charlotte Roval a week ago and will probably be in dominant form once again, but with how unpredictable many of this season’s races have been, there’s no guarantee he’ll win.

With the playoffs narrowed down to eight drivers and a shot to advance to the championship round on the line, this feels like the type of race that could see some late chaos. In that case, Bell at +300 might be your best bet, as he’s shown plenty of speed on intermediates this season and generally is good at preserving his equipment to the finish line.

Contender: Tyler Reddick (+900)

When Larson led 181 of 267 laps in the spring race at Vegas earlier this season, the only driver who seriously challenged him all day was Reddick. The driver of the No. 45 finished second that day and was hot on Larson’s tail towards the end, but simply ran out of laps.

After a resilient drive last week to keep his title hopes alive, Reddick will look to make life easier for himself these next two weeks by clinching his spot in the championship round. At +900, his odds are only fifth-highest, and that feels like solid value for the regular-season champion.

Dark horse: Alex Bowman (+2800)

It seems like the oddsmakers are one step ahead this week, as the two drivers originally considered for this slot — Joey Logano and Kyle Busch — are listed at +1000 and +1400, respectively. That’s not quite steep enough to be considered in dark-horse territory, so that leaves Bowman, whose title hopes last week ended in heartbreaking fashion when he was disqualified for failing post-race inspection at the Charlotte Roval.

Still, Bowman has been one of the best drivers in the series throughout the playoffs, and he’s had success as Vegas in the past, winning in the spring of 2022. He could be out to make a statement and crash the title contenders’ party this week, in which case those +2800 odds are great value.

Avoid: Chase Elliott (+1200)

Elliott has been a model of consistency this season, seeming to run inside the top-10 just about everywhere even despite rarely having winning speed. For that reason, he’s one of eight drivers still alive in the championship hunt, but this weekend will be a tough test for the No. 9 team. Las Vegas has been one of Elliott’s worst tracks since the introduction of the NextGen car in 2022, with a best finish of ninth in four starts.

That doesn’t bode well for NASCAR’s most popular driver, who remains eighth on the odds sheet at +1200. He should have solid opportunities at Homestead and especially Martinsville to race his way into the championship round, but do not spend your money on Elliott this weekend.