Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR at Homestead

The NASCAR Cup Series rolls on to Homestead-Miami Speedway, with only three races remaining in the 2024 season. Just as was the case at Las Vegas last Sunday, Homestead offers a chance for one of the eight remaining playoff drivers to lock their way into the championship round at Phoenix International Raceway on Nov. 10.

Homestead actually hosted NASCAR’s championship weekend up through 2019, but no longer does. Now the individual event is no longer forced to take a backseat to the title race. With that in mind, here are three drivers to watch — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — for Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 400.

Favorite: Kyle Larson (+330, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

Some weeks, you don’t want to pick the favorite because they just don’t offer enough value. Others, you simply can’t overthink it. This is one of those “others.” It might be the closest thing to a slam-dunk you’ll get all year. Larson has only won once in his career at Homestead, in 2022, but he was likely on his way to a repeat a season ago before a late crash entering pit road took him out.

Homestead is a venue that fits perfectly into Larson’s wheelhouse, as he can effortlessly rim-ride around the top of the track to gain speed down the straightaways. He’s in a solid points position to advance to the championship as it stands, but a win would ease any pressure at Martinsville a week from Sunday and you can bet on it happening. Even at those unappealing +330 odds, Larson is the guy.

Contender: Tyler Reddick (+650)

Like Larson, Reddick just has a knack for Homestead, where he’s finished in the top five in three of his four starts. Unlike Larson, he’s on the outside looking in when it comes to the fight to make the Championship Four after a wreck at Las Vegas in which his car flipped over in the infield grass. Reddick figures to be extra motivated this week and Homestead might represent his best shot to advance to Phoenix.

Given Larson’s status as the heavy favorite, anyone else in the field is better value than you would usually get. Reddick is listed with the third-best odds at +650. If you’re taking the field against Larson, the 28-year-old is probably your best bet.

Dark horse: Brad Keselowski (+2200)

Keselowski has been dreadful for the past several months, with his runner-up finish at Talladega serving as his only top-10 finish since the playoffs started. However, ever since joining Roush-Fenway-Keselowski Racing in 2022 as driver and co-owner, he has been awesome at Homestead. Keselowski finished fifth in 2022 and had a fast car last season, leading 16 laps and running in the top-five most of the race before issues dropped him to 28th.

If Keselowski is going to make any more noise this season, this would be the place for it. He’s been eliminated from the playoffs since the opening round, but he could still play spoiler as he looks to improve upon his 14th-place points standings position. Keselowski’s +2200 odds look very enticing.

Avoid: Denny Hamlin (+900)

Hamlin these past few seasons has been inseparable from the narrative of whether or not he will ever win a Cup Series championship. In his defense, he has been on the wrong side of some bad luck that has cost him chances in past years. This season, though, it’s just been a straight-up disappearing act from him and the No. 11 team during the playoffs. The NASCAR veteran has managed to earn enough points to stay alive thus far, but has not shown winning or contending speed at all.

With Larson, Reddick and Christopher Bell all penciled in as the favorites for Homestead, Hamlin should not be expected as much of a factor. He’s won there three times, but only one of those victories has come in the past decade. That win is, in fact, his only top-five finish at Homestead since his previous victory. If he’s going to have a shot at that elusive title this year, it will come down to Martinsville.