Three early NBA season trends that won’t continue

The NBA season is underway, and we are starting to see some trends that nobody thought were coming. Although the season is still very young, some players and teams are performing outside of our expectations. Here are some early-season trends that we don’t expect to continue.

The Sixers and Bucks at the bottom of the East

The Sixers and the Bucks have been the two biggest disappointments so far this season. The Bucks are 2-6, and the Sixers are 1-6, and both teams were expected to contend for a top spot in the Eastern Conference this season. For the Sixers, the problem has been injuries. Joel Embiid and Paul George both missed the start of the season recovering from injuries and now Tyrese Maxey is expected to miss time with a hamstring injury. When the Sixers finally get healthy, expect them to make a push back into the playoff picture. 

The Bucks’ situation is a bit more precarious. Although they, too, are missing a key piece to injury (Khris Middleton has yet to play as he recovers from ankle injuries), there seems to be more wrong with the core of the Bucks. The Bucks have yet to figure out how the combination of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard can excel, and Doc Rivers hasn’t been able to inspire the team to play solid defense. The upside for the Bucks is that according to Power Rankings Guru, they’ve had the 6th hardest schedule to start the year and the 28th hardest strength of schedule remaining. As their team continues to gel and their schedule eases up, expect the Bucks to make a surge up the standings. 

Anthony Edwards leading the league in three-pointers made

Last season, Anthony Edwards made 2.4 three-pointers per game on 6.7 attempts (35.7%). This year, he is shooting over 11 threes a game and is making over five of them. This has him sitting at the top of the list for three-pointers made this season. Edwards has put an emphasis on improving his three-point shot and increasing his volume. That being said, although his attempts will likely stay high, his three-point shooting percentage will come down. Right now, he is shooting 46.1% from distance, almost 10% better than he shot last season. A jump that drastic is certainly possible for an improving superstar like Edwards, but it is very unlikely. 

Victor Wembanyama’s regression

Victor Wembanyama lit the NBA on fire last season as one of the most highly anticipated prospects of all time. As a rookie, he averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 3.6 blocks per game and won the Rookie of the Year Award. This season, Wemby’s stats are down almost across the board. Some of this can be attributed to a declining usage rate. Jeremy Sochan was handling the ball more than last season, and newly acquired Chris Paul has taken over some of the offensive production. Sochan is now out recovering from a broken hand, so some of his offensive share will go back to Wemby. On top of that, Wemby is only shooting 22.6% from three this season, down from last year’s 32.5%. As his touches and three-point percentage go up, so will the questions about Wembanyama in year two. 

With such a small sample size it’s unlikely that all of these trends will continue. The Sixers and Bucks might not contend at the top of the East as expected, but they certainly won’t finish the season at the bottom of the standings. Edwards is showing a new dimension to his game, but his excellent 3-point percentage likely won’t persist. Wembanyama has been a victim of the sophomore slump so far, but his statistical regression shouldn’t last much longer. We aren’t putting too much weight on these early-season outliers, and neither should you.