Saudi Pro League’s plans: Inside Jhon Duran’s transfer and if Mohamed Salah and Vinicius Jr. could be next

The photographers were primed. The video crew was ready. Al-Nassr had gotten their man and they knew it. So certain were they that the deal would be ready to be announced, two members of their media team had departed Riyadh to document its final hours.

The slight hitch? They were heading to Leverkusen, where Victor Boniface was waiting to finalize a contract that would have made him one of the best-paid footballers on the planet. In the meantime, there had been a change of plans. Al-Nassr would be signing Jhon Duran of Aston Villa instead.

This was a matter of some surprise to senior figures close to Al-Nassr. Throughout the first weeks of the January window, their first choice had been Bayer Leverkusen’s Boniface. Had that fallen apart then Duran was a more than adequate alternative. Now they have him, there are few complaints about the quality of a player who averaged a goal every 102 minutes in the Premier League.

There are, however, concerns about how their business has been conducted by owners PIF, according to sources with knowledge of Al-Nassr’s thinking. Ultimately it was the sovereign wealth fund who had the final call on the deal, per sources, and who opted for Duran when almost everything had been agreed for Boniface, the man Al-Nassr viewed as their primary target.

PIF’s view

It should be noted that PIF sources have indicated a different view of things. They, it would appear, had viewed Boniface as the alternative, their swift progression in talks with Leverkusen a means of drawing Villa to the table. 

It was widely expected that the Midlands side would sell one of the big two forwards and at the time that PIF’s interest in Duran intensified dialogue was underway about a possible sale of Ollie Watkins to Arsenal. An $80 million offer for their second-choice center forward rather changed the calculus at Villa Park.

Even as the offer went in and the medical was booked, there were those within the Al-Nassr hierarchy who still expected Boniface to get the nod. PIF has previously proven itself willing to push concurrent deals at the same time, for instance initiating talks for Al-Ittihad to sign Leandro Trossard last summer while also lining up Ajax’s Steven Bergwijn. Deals tend not to progress as far as the Boniface-Duran tandem did however.

That left Al-Nassr in something of a bind with those close to the club fearing the damage that will have been done to their reputation by leaving Boniface in the lurch at the 11th hour, disrupting Leverkusen before a major Champions League match. Xabi Alonso described the situation as “a bit strange, uncomfortable” and though the player himself has spoken of his commitment to the German champions it remains to be seen whether the transfer that nearly was harms relations between Leverkusen, Al-Nassr and Boniface.

Though the Nigeria international may have been the man Al-Nassr wanted, it would be wrong to suggest they are disappointed with Duran. The Colombian was one of the most coveted strikers on the European market and fits in with PIF’s priorities to snare some of the game’s best young talent. At 21 years of age, it is possible that Duran could be performing at a high level when the World Cup arrives in Saudi Arabia in 2034.

Speculation over Duran’s conduct at Villa Park is not concerning the Al-Nassr top brass, who are understood to be confident in Cristiano Ronaldo setting expectations in the dressing room for their new young striker.

They will also be hoping that Duran’s addition can fire them back towards the top of the Saudi Pro League. For all that a situation where four clubs share one owner breeds skepticism and concern, it should be noted that the bulk of PIF’s January spending was directed to Al-Ahli (who added Galeno from Porto for $46.7 million) and Al-Nassr. They trail the league’s joint-leaders by 11 and eight points respectively. Al-Hilal and Al-Ittihad’s additions were altogether smaller in scale.

The same may not be true come this summer. After a relatively slow summer of 2024 — reflecting the cooling down of the transfer market globally — there are signs of a big push for additions to the Pro League, and in particular the PIF four, over the summer. Two names stand out.

Mohamed Salah remains a target

When Al-Hilal and Al-Ittihad submitted to their owners a list of their top three targets in the summer of 2023, both had Mohamed Salah’s name on them. Interest has not faded ever since, come the summer, he will be a free agent. Saudi sports minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki al-Faisal said last month it would be “a pleasure and a privilege” to have him in the Pro League. If he wants to come, he can expect a salary comparable to that of Ronaldo and Karim Benzema.

If, however, is the operative word. Sources with knowledge of PIF’s thinking believe that any move for Salah is “far from advanced.” There are doubts within the league as to whether the 32-year-old, the leading contender for the Ballon d’Or, is ready to leave the European game yet. Salah’s every public statement speaks to a strong desire to stay with Liverpool, there would be a reluctance to see a big money offer used as leverage to extract the best terms from their current club.

What about Vinicius?

Vinicius Junior is the other major name on the Saudi radar. The annual salary package could peak at around the $200 million Ronaldo earns at Al-Nassr with Al-Hilal viewed as the likeliest landing point for the Brazilian forward. Reports in Spain over the last year have suggested that Vinicius would consider any offer that came in the summer.

Below the superstar level, there is still interest in Mateo Kovacic that had to be put on ice after Rodri’s season-ending injury in September. Casemiro also came under consideration in January. With a year to run on his contract at Manchester United, he may prove to be attainable even if he is not a top target.

If the Duran and Boniface saga is anything to go on, however, then this summer will deliver unpredictable twists to the last minute.