Rebuilding Man City: What players should Pep Guardiola recruit to return his squad to the top of Europe?

Manchester City need a lot. It feels somewhat baffling to be saying this about the first ever side to win the English top division four years in a row, their seasons routinely running to the 60-ish game mark, but Pep Guardiola’s squad has long looked a little light, bodies-wise. Only with the injury crisis of this season has it been apparent just how much gambling there has been on fitness and form by the powers that be at the Etihad Stadium.

City’s first teamers are too young or too old. Their squad is generously stocked in some areas — there are a lot of center backs masquerading in other positions in the defensive line — and then perversely light in others. Seriously, who leads the line if Erling Haaland gets injured or even needs a break?

The last few weeks have seen even Guardiola — a man who said in 2023 that he would rather not be manager than run out a 25-man squad — acknowledge that he should have built a deeper squad. Even his players are crying out for competition, he admitted last month. “In winter time, it’s not easy but everybody is aware,” said Guardiola. “I think even the players ask that we add some players please.”

The winter window isn’t the only thing quelling City’s business in January. Sources within the game note that the impending conclusion of the Premier League’s case against its champions threatens to quell the interest of some potential targets, who will want certainty over the long-term future of the club.

Still for the purposes of this exercise let’s park the unknowables about what might happen if the league comes down hard on City. Instead, let’s look at some of the many holes in this squad and assess how they might be fixed, using near unlimited wealth both because it makes for more fun and, well, this is a team that is owned by a member of the Abu Dhabi royal family. We’ll start with the easiest replacement of them all:

1. The De Bruyne replacement

You might think this ought to be beyond incoming sporting director Hugo Viana. How do you find the next Kevin De Bruyne, the greatest player ever to don a sky blue jersey? You’re going to need someone who can routinely deliver double figures in goals and assists, an outlet and ball carrier who is stronger than you might think, both physically and mentally, really just a guy who can be the focal point of an entire elite offense. Might I introduce you to Florian Wirtz?

It doesn’t get more can’t miss than Wirtz, a 21-year-old who has already been the star man in the Bayer Leverkusen side that no German opponent could beat last season. The German international is secure in possession, capable of finding his way through a press that City’s opponents have been ever more willing to deploy of late, and he also leads his own team’s off-ball work. The formation might be different, but Xabi Alonso’s side play with comparable precision and patience to City. There is no such thing as a can’t miss transfer, particularly when a player is moving from abroad. If there were, it might be signing Wirtz.

Of course the same is true for every elite club in Europe. Most, if not all, will position themselves for Wirtz’s signature when he does eventually depart Leverkusen. It could be that the one that appoints Alonso, whose bond with his playmaker is known to run deep, wins the day. And if City were to miss out on Wirtz, there’s not a lot else obviously out there. Maybe his compatriot Jamal Musiala feels he has won enough at Bayern Munich? That seems a long shot when he recently expressed hope to sign a new deal with the Bavarians.

After that, this goes from one of the surest things in the rebuild to the hardest to puzzle out. Even in his diminished form, De Bruyne ranks third in Europe’s top five leagues for shot creating actions. Last season he put up a combined 0.7 expected goals and expected assists (xG+xA). You could make a case for Dejan Kulusevski at great cost. Maybe on another timeline Cole Palmer has developed into someone with a little more ball-carrying and is the homemade replacement for De Bruyne. He certainly isn’t the only player that City could really do with getting back.

2. A versatile forward

Last summer, Julian Alvarez wanted a new challenge. They got great money for the Argentine and didn’t have to satiate the needs of a forward who wouldn’t have long been happy in Haaland’s shadow. How they could do with him back though. In 2023-24 Alvarez understudied both roles in the Haaland-De Bruyne tandem. When both were playing he could operate from wide, getting a volume of quality shots that has eluded the likes of Jeremy Doku and Savinho. That didn’t seem quite as necessary last season during Phil Foden’s heater from outside the box. Now, with Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic the only non-Haaland players with over two Premier League goals, it feels like a necessity.

City find themselves linked with Omar Marmoush, a compelling option given his form for Eintracht Frankfurt, 13 goals and seven assists in 15 Bundesliga games this season. You could see him fitting in well under Guardiola, who can be more willing than credited to use the front two that Marmoush has excelled in this season. Hugely impressive as the Egyptian’s recent run of games is, though, the first question every club will be asking this January is why he already has more shot creating actions this season than last, why his creativity in particular has skyrocketed? As he approaches his 26th birthday, is this Marmoush fulfilling his potential or hitting a hot streak?

In Italy, Ademola Lookman appears to be a tempting option, the Atalanta forward looking like he will push beyond the 20 goals plus assists mark he has flirted with in each of the last two Serie A campaigns. There is something about the way that Gian Piero Gasperini ekes everything out of any forward who comes through Bergamo, but Guardiola isn’t too shabby with forwards either.

Before we move on, a left field option. Luis Diaz will soon be into the final two years of a contract that pays far less than the going rate for a starter at Liverpool. Under Arne Slot this season he has proven he can operate centrally as well as from wide. You could pair him with Haaland or usurp one of Doku and Savinho. Pulling teeth might be a more pleasurable experience than negotiating with City’s great rival of the last decade, but Diaz might be worth it.

3. More midfield help

Both from Guardiola’s public comments, and indications around City, midfield additions look to be among the most likely this month. It is the most immediate need in Rodri’s absence, as so many of the problems in this team stem back to the absence of the world’s best player, setting the table in attack and sweeping away the scraps that are thrown at the defense. Just look at the spike in opponent expected goals, calculated on a rolling five game average, after the Ballon d’Or winner suffers his ACL injury in September.

Of course, the challenge with recruiting to replace an injured player is what happens when they come back? Knee operations aren’t the career enders they once were but a 29 year old in one of the most physically and tactically demanding positions in football? Don’t take it for granted that Rodri will be what he was. Certainly City need to be looking at a player who can fill in in the short term, possibly beyond this season while also fitting into a midfield alongside Rodri.

There are two targets who City seem to have landed on, both of whom would surely do the job for them quite effectively. Martin Zubimendi showed just what an effective alternate he can be for Rodri in the second half of the Euro 2024 final. No qualms there, but perhaps Bruno Guimaraes is a slightly more tempting option. Even not accounting for his outstanding displays in the Premier League, the Brazil international has a quality that is ideal for City. He is horrible to play against, both when the ball is in play and out. He gets fouled a lot. He winds the opposition up no end. The secret ingredient of this footballing superpower has long been how infuriating they are. Guimaraes would take that to new heights (or should that be depths). Oh, and paying big money for him would make it easier for Newcastle to resist Arsenal’s interest in Alexander Isak. Win, win.

4. Defenders

The other position that Guardiola has hinted at strengthening is the rearguard, racked by injuries, but not necessarily short on total numbers given that there are seven to play across the back four. In theory, one more might be helpful, but on the surface level it hardly seems the most pressing concern.

Then again, the City backline has begun to look a little same-y, a group that leant too far into the four center backs approach that got Guardiola his first Champions League title. Since then, City have looked for a little more variety from their full backs and options in that regard are limited. With John Stones injured the best option to go from defense into midfield is often Rico Lewis, who might generously be termed a project.

More pressing might be finding a replacement for Kyle Walker. The position itself need not be a right back because the England international’s great superpower is (or was?) his recovery pace. Break through the press, charm your way past Rodri and City opponents still weren’t away. Walker would apply the afterburners and reel in even the fastest strikers. 

That pure pace is perhaps why City have been linked with their academy graduate Jeremie Frimpong, who certainly would have the recovery base. However, he has spent the last two seasons and change operating as more wing than back. Since the start of the 2022-23 Bundesliga season the Dutch international has 429 touches in the opposition box. He has 75 in his own. He’s at 105 shots, 29 interceptions. Can any suitor really be sure he is enough of a defender?

In terms of a solid defender who can sweep up in behind, there may be no better option out there than Micky van de Ven, at least assuming that William Saliba doesn’t do an Abebayor/Nasri/Clichy/Toure. The risk in signing the Tottenham center back is duplicating Josko Gvardiol’s qualities as a left sided center back. Perhaps given the Croatian’s development since he arrived from RB Leipzig, however, it wouldn’t be the worst idea to commit to him full time as a left back. If not Van de Ven, Maxence Lacroix has excelled for Crystal Palace in recent weeks. 

On the opposite flank if Walker is ageing out Lewis probably needs some help. It is encouraging to see a 20-year-old defender being afforded opportunities at an elite side, but it might be sub-optimal both for City and the player that he has their fourth most Premier League minutes this season. Lutsharel Geertruida at RB Leipzig seems a very Guardiola-y option, the sort who could cover the right side of central defense as well as inverting at full back. Elsewhere in the Bundesliga, Yan Couto is at least getting minutes with Borussia Dortmund and would offer a more orthodox, attacking option down the flank. Crucially as well, he is actually on City’s books. Given all the business they have to do, finding what they can among those already in the setup is not a bad idea.