Premier League predictions, expert picks: Ange Postecogolu begins crucial Tottenham run at Manchester City

The Premier League table might tell you otherwise, but Tottenham’s start to the new season has been really rather impressive. You just need to observe it through the right lens. No team in England’s top flight has more non-penalty expected goals (npxG) than Ange Postecoglou’s, their 21.69 hovering very close to the two npxG per game mark that is the sign of a truly elite attack.

You don’t need even moderately advanced metrics to see the impressive side of Spurs. Just look at the goal difference of plus 10 from 11 games. On average they have been a goal better than their opponents so far this season. By that stat they even better Saturday’s opponents, Manchester City.

No wonder. When they have beaten teams they have beaten them. Manchester United were pulverized at Old Trafford, paying the price for too a high line without sufficient ball pressure that similarly did for Aston Villa. When Spurs run into a team that aren’t up to scratch it can get dicey. West Ham and Everton can attest as much. At both ends of the pitch they are marking quite the case to be the league’s great entertainers.

You would imagine then, that a team who had already accrued four wins by a margin of three plus goals would be riding high in the table, bound to take on the Premier League champions with at least serious hopes of being in their vicinity come the end of the season. Instead, it seems eminently plausible that when Tottenham take to the field at the Etihad Stadium — often a happy hunting ground even in bad times — they will do so sat in the bottom half of the Premier League table. Five wins, five defeats and a draw from their 11 games, 10th place in the league. That is enough to put pressure on any big six manager, particularly when he faces a trying run of games in the weeks ahead.

Still, Postecoglou seems to believe in where his team find themselves. “We’re definitely a better side than some of our results show,” he said in his pre-match press conference. “That’s what you’re looking at, to progress as a football team. Within that context a lot of our players have developed more, but within that context our results haven’t reflected that which is a major part of what you do. 

“You want to prove your standing in the game and our results haven’t reflected that. I am still very, very bullish and excited about our progress as a team. We’ve just got to push on from where we are now to get that consistency that will reflect in more positive results.”

Unfortunately for Tottenham, they are as consistent in getting nothing from marginal encounters as they are winning big when they are on top. Games where their xG has been less than their opponents by 0.03 (Arsenal), 0.04 (Crystal Palace) and 0.07 (Ipswich) have resulted in zero points. There is an almighty dose of football-ing in Spurs’ early season results.

Equally, not all of that comes from the opposition getting lucky. Sammie Szmodics’ overhead kick might have been a once in a season — once in a lifetime if you’re feeling harsh — strike, but if Brennan Johnson had put his head on the ball he would never have got a chance. Basic errors at the back post have handed goals to Brighton and Palace. The talent of Cristian Romero is not up for dispute. Whether he has the temperament of the best anchoring defenders in the Premier League — Virgil van Dijk, William Saliba, Ruben Dias — might not be for much longer either.

Spurs would rather have Romero than not, but Postecoglou has said the Argentine “won’t be right” after coming off at half time in his country’s 2-1 defeat to Paraguay. Micky van de Ven is not expected to return from his hamstring injury until next month. Tottenham have got something at the Etihad in similar circumstances before, Ben Davies and Emerson Royal holding fort against Erling Haaland’s artillery strikes in a 3-3 draw. You would not gamble on them doing so again. After all Radu Dragusin and Davies were just torn to shreds by Galatasaray.

Even when the starting center backs return, there is work to do.  Their 0.124 xG per shot allowed is the fifth worst mark in the Premier League. Tottenham might not give up a lot of shots, but when they do allow an opponent through, often either because their press has been passed through or they have given the ball away while attempting to build from the back, they let them into favorable spots.

These inauspicious signs matter just as much as the impressive xG given what is around the corner for Spurs. It could be reasonably argued that they have just one favorable Premier League fixture between now and Christmas. Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, even Fulham will expect to puncture more holes in the leaky backline. The Premier League table is sufficiently concentrated that a win over Ipswich before the international break would have had Spurs third, a more accurate reflection of their performances. Handing a pretty ordinary opponent their first Premier League win in two decades might just be an even more accurate reflection of Tottenham’s, well, you know, Spursy-ness.

That is Postecoglou’s task to address, one better reflected in league tables and trophy cabinets than xG. The latter gives Tottenham reason to go into this pivotal run of games knowing it can serve a mustering point for the remainder of the season. Spurs have the look of a team capable of matching the best in the league. If they don’t prove that to be the case over the next few weeks, however, then questions will be asked of their manager.

Scroll down for our predicted score in this and every other one of this weekend’s Premier League games:

Saturday, November 23
Leicester 1, Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2, Nottingham Forest 1
Aston Villa 2, Crystal Palace 0
Bournemouth 2, Brighton 2
Everton 0, Brentford 0
Fulham 1, Wolves 2
Manchester City 3, Tottenham 1

Sunday, November 24
Southampton 0, Liverpool 3
Ipswich 0, Manchester United 1

Monday, November 25
Newcastle 1, West Ham 0