Predicting which NBA rookie-scale extensions will age best

1. Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors | Five-year max

The maximum five-year rookie-scale extension for a player from the 2021 draft is worth $224M for five years. Players who make two All-NBA teams or start two All-Star games during that span (or win MVP), can earn a raise up to $269M.

Barnes has a real chance to earn that raise after making his first All-Star team last season at age 22. He notched career highs of 19.9 points per game, 8.2 rebounds and five assists while showing he could be a primary offensive option, after Toronto traded Pascal Siakam. He also showed he could be a back-line defender, with 1.5 blocks to go with his 1.3 steals.

2. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons | Five-year max

The No. 1 overall pick from the 2021 draft returned from a sophomore season lost to injury with a strong 2023-24 season. Cunningham averaged 22.7 points and 7.5 assists and showed huge improvement in his shooting. He made 35.5% of his threes and 44.9% of his field goals, impressive on a Detroit Pistons team that had no other shooting threats most of the season. Like Barnes, Cunningham would absolutely get a max deal if he hit restricted free agency next year.

3. Trey Murphy, New Orleans Pelicans | Four years, $112M

Murphy is one of the very best young shooters in the NBA. A career 39.2% shooter from deep, Murphy was good for three triples a night last season, some from well behind the arc. He’s 6-foot-8 with long arms and a high release point, making his shot very hard to block. Plus, he’s a solid defender who virtually never turns the ball over. Even if he doesn’t improve as a ball handler, Murphy is a very valuable player who looks likely to replace impending Brandon Ingram in the Pelicans’ starting lineup.

4. Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets | Five years, $185M

Sengun had a breakthrough season in 2023-24, averaging 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and five assists, before an ankle injury ended his season a month early. He didn’t turn 22 until this summer, but showed a diverse offensive skill set that earned him the nickname “Baby Jokic,” with his inside game demanding double teams.

There was an excellent chance Sengun would get a max next summer, so Houston gave up a chance at big cap space next summer to lock down their young big. In turn, Sengun took $40M less than his max, but received a player option for his fifth year. Win-win for both sides, especially as Sengun can hit free agency again at age 26.

5. Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic | Five-year max

Wagner had a disastrous season in terms of three-point shooting, dropping to 28% shooting from deep, but he was very good at virtually everything else. The 6-foot-10 forward was incredible at getting to the hoop, taking 31.5% of his shots within three feet of the basket. Wagner was a big part of Orlando’s elite defense, contesting a high percentage of shots while forcing opponents away from the hoop.

As for the threes, it may simply be that Wagner was exhausted, after playing all but 15 games in his three-year career and spending summers hitting the court for Germany’s national team. With his free-throw shooting still excellent (85%), it’s likely Wagner gets back to his above-average jump shot.

6. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks | Five years, $150M

In his age-22 season, Jalen Johnson played his way into the Hawks’ starting lineup and quickly became one of their most important players. Johnson tripled his assist numbers from 1.2 to 3.6 per game, nearly tripled his scoring from 5.6 to 16 points per game and grabbed 8.7 rebounds per game, along with 1.2 steals. He’s very versatile on defense, able to guard point guards and power forwards, and got his three-point shooting above 35 percent. Plus, Johnson loves dunking on his opponents.

7. Moses Moody, Golden State Warriors | Three years, $37.5M

Moody is the least-accomplished player to get a rookie extension this year, which is why it’s also the lowest one in terms of years and money. Originally listed at $39M, $1.5M of this deal comes in the form of incentives. The concern is that Moody still hasn’t grabbed a regular spot in the Warriors rotation, though he did lead the team in scoring during the preseason. Essentially, Moody is solid in many areas without having an outstanding skill, but a slight uptick in shooting percentage or quicker decision-making makes him a clear asset. At worst, this contract could prove extremely useful in future trades.

8. Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic | Five years, $150M

Suggs is one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, making the All-Defensive second team last year. He avoided the injuries that derailed his first two seasons and bumped his three-point shooting up to nearly 40%, partly due to taking far more from the corners. But it’s somewhat dangerous to give big money to a shooting guard who doesn’t create offense for himself or his teammates — Suggs averages 3.2 assists for his career along with 2.1 turnovers.

The upside for Orlando is that Suggs’ contract declines in value each year, but it’s a lot to pay for defense, even when it’s very good.

9. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers | Five-year max

Mobley is another example of paying big money for defense, in this case a full five-year max. He is an elite and versatile defender who is able to guard on the perimeter while still blocking 1.4 shots per game. But Mobley’s offense remains mostly theoretical. His usage on offense is low, he hasn’t shown off much passing skill and while his three-point percentage rose to 37% last season, he only took 70 total threes — and and fewer than 10 shots per game in general. Mobley might take a leap offensively if given more opportunities, but right now, Cleveland is making an expensive bet on a great deal of offensive improvement that may never come.

10. Jalen Green, Houston Rockets | Three years, $105.3M

This may be the most difficult deal to evaluate, because it seems designed for Green to be traded. It’s a three-year deal with a player option on the final year (worth $36M), plus a 10 percent trade kicker. If Green can play like he did after the All-Star break, when he averaged 22.8 points and shot 36.8% from deep, this deal looks good. If he continues to play like he has over the rest of his career — where his defense has been outright bad, his assist rate mediocre and his shooting erratic — it looks rough.

Mainly, this feels like a compromise deal where the Rockets get some contract certainty, and if Houston decides to move Green somewhere he doesn’t want to be, he gets a raise and the ability to opt out. But it’s a lot of money for a player who has been mostly bad for three seasons.

11. Corey Kispert, Washington Wizards | Four years, $54M

The saving grace in this deal is that the fourth year is a team option. But overall it’s a very Wizards move to give a big contract to a player with one plus skill: Three-point shooting. Kispert has made 38.7% of his threes for his career, taking five per game. But he’s not a good defender, he doesn’t get rebounds, nor does he create offense for others, and he’ll be 26 when the extension starts.

It’s reminiscent of when the Wizards gave Davis Bertans, another three-point specialist, $69M over four years and it immediately became one of the NBA’s worst contracts. But the Wizards never learn. That’s why they’re the Wizards.