Predicting When Oilers’ McDavid Will Hit 2,000 Points – The Hockey Writers Edmonton Oilers Latest News, Analysis & More

Everybody knew Connor McDavid was going to be an elite talent in the NHL, but even his biggest supporters couldn’t have imagined him accomplishing what he has. The Edmonton Oilers forward often finds himself on the butt end of jokes for not having won a Stanley Cup, but those who are being serious with themselves understand that he is already one of the best to ever lace them up.

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McDavid added to his already historic legacy earlier this week, recording the 1,000th point of his career. He did so despite having only suited up in 659 games to date, and as such, became the fourth fastest in league history to accomplish the feat. The only three to have done so quicker are Mike Bossy (656), Mario Lemieux (513) and Wayne Gretzky (424).

Hitting 1,000 points is a historic milestone which often is enough to have players get Hall of Fame consideration. Of course, McDavid is already undoubtedly a Hall of Fame player, given that he hit the mark at just 27 years old. Based on his extreme passion for the game, we could very well see him play into his 40s, which subsequently means we could see him hit an even more ridiculous milestone later in his career. That being, of course, becoming just the second player, joining Gretzky, as the only one to record 2,000 career points.

McDavid’s Chase to 2,000

Though playing until you’re 40 in today’s day and age in the NHL isn’t common, players like McDavid seemed to be wired a little differently. Let’s pretend for the sake of this debate that he does indeed play until he’s 40.

McDavid is set to turn 28 in January, meaning that he will be 39 or 40 in what we are presuming to be his final NHL season. That would mean he would play an additional 12 seasons after the 2024-25 campaign has wrapped up. He hasn’t missed much time at all throughout his career aside from his rookie season, but let’s say he averages 75 games per season moving forward. That would be an additional 900 games, plus an extra 61 for the remainder of this season (we will also project 75 for this current season).

Should he hit that exact total of games played, he’d have an astounding 1,620 in his career. That would currently have him in the top 15 of all time, which may seem like a stretch, but with the effort he puts in to take care of his body, it is a real possibility.

With 1,003 points in 660 games, McDavid is averaging roughly 1.52 points per game throughout his storied career. If he were to keep up that same pace, he would end his career with a staggering 2,459 points. Now, of course, the odds of that actually coming to fruition are next to zero. You can never bet against McDavid, but father time hits everyone eventually, meaning that his ridiculous point-per-game pace will slow down at some point before his career is said and done.

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Even when that happens, however, there’s no reason not to believe he can’t be upwards of a point-per-game player similar to what Sidney Crosby continues to be into his late 30s. Let’s say McDavid has four more seasons (this one included) at a pace of 120 points. That alone puts him at 1,462 in his career, and he’d be only 31 years old.

That would mean McDavid is entering his 31/32 age season being 538 points from 2,000. Should he be able to put up two additional 100-point seasons, which is very possible given what he’s proven capable of, he’d be just 338 away. By then, he would still have approximately seven seasons left, which, if we continue with his 75 games-per-season pace, would still have him playing another 525 games. Though he would no longer be in his prime by that point, registering 338 points over that lengthy span is certainly possible, if not likely.

McDavid Will Get There if Healthy

Though those final 538 points are by no means a walk in the park, McDavid has proven he’s no ordinary player. In fact, in the eyes of many, he’s the greatest to ever lace up the skates. Should health continue to remain on his side, it seems as though it’s not a matter of if he’ll hit 2,000 career points, but when.