Predicting the landing spots for MLB’s top-10 free-agent hitters

As is the case in most years, the MLB offseason isn’t off to an exciting start, but with several high-profile free agents available, the action should pick up soon.

Although the Juan Soto sweepstakes is the biggest storyline of the free-agency period, there are plenty of other talented hitters on the market who may also be on the move. With that in mind, here are our predictions for where the top-10 free-agent hitters will land:

Outfielder Juan Soto

Prediction: The 26-year-old stays in New York but with Mets on record-setting deal

For the second consecutive offseason, one free agent stands above the rest. We haven’t seen a younger and more talented player hit free agency since Alex Rodriguez became available in 2000. Soto, who is widely expected to sign one of the richest deals in MLB history, met with the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers over the last week.

While his defense and base-running raise questions about whether he’s worth a record-setting contract, Soto’s bat, as well as his resume, more than compensate for those flaws. The 2019 World Series champion ranks sixth all time in home runs among players under 26 (201) and first in walks (769), drawing 101 more free passes than the next-closest player, Mickey Mantle. Additionally, Soto is coming off an outstanding season for the American League champion Yankees, his first with the team, hitting a career-high 41 homers.

Multiple insiders believe Soto will re-sign with the Yankees or join the crosstown Mets, with money being the biggest motivator behind his eventual decision. If those reports are accurate, it’s hard to imagine Mets billionaire owner Steve Cohen, who is reportedly willing to bid $50 million more than any other team for Soto’s services, not signing the four-time All-Star. 

After all, Cohen didn’t shy away from overpaying for RHPs Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in the twilight of their careers. One can only imagine how much money Cohen is willing to give a generational talent who’s entering his prime. 

Shortstop Willy Adames

Prediction: Signs with San Francisco Giants 

The next shortstop set to cash in on a nine-figure deal, Adames will be the most sought free-agent infielder following his stellar 2024 season. In 161 games for the National League Central champion Brewers, Adames hit 32 home runs with 112 RBI — both career highs — and had 4.8 fWAR, the ninth best in the NL. (Per FanGraphs, fWar is a stat that estimates a player’s value to his team by combining all aspects of his performance into one number.)

Because of his reported willingness to move to third base, Adames has no shortage of suitors. Still, it’s unclear how much of a factor a position change will play in his decision, and if all offers are comparable, perhaps he’ll go where he can play shortstop. What can be said for certain is that San Francisco could benefit from adding a shortstop and has the motivation to sign a star talent.

The Giants have repeatedly been left at the altar by top free agents in recent years. They’ve lost out on Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani and had a $350 million deal with Carlos Correa nixed over a failed physical, but their aggressiveness shouldn’t change under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey. Ultimately, San Francisco will make Adames its next shortstop, a position it received just 1.8 WAR from last season, the seventh worst among teams. 

Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez 

Prediction: Re-signs with Los Angeles Dodgers 

Hernandez failed to sign the multiyear contract he was seeking during the last free-agency cycle and opted to join the Dodgers on a one-year deal. He should have no trouble securing a long-term deal this offseason, as Hernandez turned in the best season of his career for the World Series champion Dodgers, slashing .272/.339/.501 with 33 homers and 99 RBI.

Per The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Fabian Ardaya, at least five teams have expressed interest in Hernandez. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Boston Red Sox, a team Hernandez likely would’ve signed with last winter had they offered him a three-year deal, sparking a bidding war. But in the end, the two-time All-Star will re-sign with Los Angeles, just as he has been hoping for since the offseason began. 

First baseman Pete Alonso

Prediction: Re-signs with New York Mets 

“The Polar Bear” bet on himself last season after turning down a seven-year, $158 million contract extension from the Mets in 2023, but the decision didn’t exactly go as planned. Alonso posted a career-worst OPS (.788) and hit 34 homers and drove in 88 runs, his lowest marks in each category in a 162-game season.

Nevertheless, Alonso bounced back in the postseason, hitting .273 with four home runs. Of course, no homer was more notable than Alonso’s go-ahead ninth-inning blast to help the Mets win a winner-take-all Game 3 of the wild-card series against the Brewers. He could be declining, but since Alonso has unquestionably solidified himself as an all-time great Met, Cohen will do everything in his power to keep the four-time All-Star. 

First baseman Christian Walker 

Prediction: Signs with New York Yankees 

One of MLB’s more underrated talents for the past few seasons, Walker might be a more desirable option for teams eyeing a first baseman than Alonso. When healthy, Walker is one of the most consistent hitters in baseball and arguably the best fielding first baseman, ranking first at the position in Outs Above Average in each of the past three seasons. An oblique injury hurt his 2024 offensive stats, but Walker still hit 26 homers and posted a .803 OPS in 130 games with Arizona.

Earlier this month, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the Yankees are among the teams planning “to aggressively pursue Walker,” which isn’t surprising because Anthony Rizzo hit free agency. Walker would surely be an upgrade over Rizzo, and as a right-handed hitter, he’d give New York needed help against left-handed pitching. If the Yankees don’t re-sign Soto as we’re predicting, Walker will be just one of the team’s many noteworthy additions. 

Third baseman Alex Bregman 

Prediction: Signs with Philadelphia Phillies 

With the leadership and postseason experience he provides, Bregman should be a hot commodity this offseason, especially after posting a strong 134 wRC+ in the second half of last season. (Per MLB.com, wRC+ takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for important external factors — like ballpark or era.)

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic believes the two-time World Series champion is seeking a deal worth nearly $350 million over 11 years. In all likelihood, Bregman won’t receive a contract of that magnitude, but the Phillies will be eager to spend big on him.

In 2024, Philadelphia again fell short in the postseason, getting eliminated by the Mets in the NLDS, and must take some massive swings to keep its championship window open. The first major roster shake-up for the Phillies will be moving third baseman Alec Bohm, who is on the trade block after going 1-for-13 against the Mets in the playoffs. 

It shouldn’t be difficult to find a trade partner for Bohm, and to adequately replace the All-Star, the Phillies will sign the longtime Astro to a $200 million contract with the additional resources provided by their new investors. 

Outfielder Anthony Santander 

Prediction: Signs with Cleveland Guardians 

Santander, 30, will likely be the fall-back plan for clubs that fail to land Soto, though “he’s drawing interest from lower-revenue teams as well,” according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The switch-hitter set a career-high with 44 home runs for Baltimore in 2024, and over the past four seasons, only 11 players have hit more homers than Santander’s 123. Even so, Passan believes Santander won’t command a $100M deal because of his unimpressive lifetime .307 on-base percentage.

Cleveland enjoyed a successful first season under American League Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt, winning the AL Central and reaching the ALCS. However, to become a legitimate World Series contender, its lineup, which scored the fifth-fewest runs after the All-Star break, desperately needs the pop Santander can provide. As a result, look for the Guardians to make an uncharacteristic splash in free agency and sign the Venezuela native to a three-year, $70M deal. 

Outfielder Jurickson Profar 

Prediction: Re-signs with San Diego Padres 

The former top-ranked prospect finally reached stardom in his age-31 season after re-joining San Diego on a one-year deal last winter. In addition to setting a career highs in homers (24), Profar, who earned his first All-Star nod in 2024, posted the seventh-highest on-base percentage in the majors (.380).

Even though signing Profar to a multiyear deal could be considered a risk because of the turbulent start of his career, San Diego won’t squander the opportunity to retain one of its best hitters. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projects Profar to sign a three-year, $45M deal, which would be a reasonable price for the Padres. 

Second baseman Gleyber Torres 

Prediction: Signs with Seattle Mariners 

It appears Torres’ time with the Yankees has come to an end after the team decided not to extend him the qualifying offer, likely knowing he would’ve accepted it. 2024 was a mixed bag for Torres, who led MLB second basemen in errors (18) and posted the second-worst OPS of his career (.709).

Despite his regular-season struggles, Torres emerged as one of New York’s most impactful hitters in October, slashing .241/.348/.397 with two homers and eight RBI. Because of his resurgent postseason, coupled with a lack of intriguing alternatives, teams will overlook Torres’ defensive shortcomings and consider him the top free-agent second baseman.

After holding a 10-game lead in the AL West standings during mid-June, the Mariners spiraled en route to an 85-77 finish and missed the postseason. Seattle’s woeful offense was a driving force behind its collapse and since Jorge Polanco is a free agent, the team would benefit from adding a power-hitting second baseman. 2025’s results could decide whether the Mariners will move forward with their current core, so expect them to splurge on Torres, signing him to a three-year deal. 

Infielder Ha-Seong Kim 

Prediction: Signs with New York Yankees 

Since Torres is leaving the Bronx, the Yankees must get creative in searching for a replacement. Although New York could choose Jazz Chisholm Jr. or Oswaldo Cabrera to fill the void, Kim will prove to be too valuable to pass on in free agency.

Kim has been a league-average hitter since debuting for San Diego in 2021, posting a 101 wRC+, but has established himself as one of the top defensive infielders in baseball. The 2023 Gold Glove Award winner not only has the versatility to play second base, third base and shortstop. He is also a dynamic base runner. Over the past two seasons, Kim ranks 15th in MLB in stolen bases (60).

Kim’s skill set makes him an ideal fit for a Yankees team that finished third in the American League in errors last season (93) and stole 88 bases, the seventh fewest in the majors. And because he underwent shoulder surgery in October, putting his availability for the start of the 2025 season in question, the Yankees could land him on a bargain of a contract.