Potential landing spots for Japanese ace Roki Sasaki

Since Nov. 9, the speculation by Major League Baseball executives, media and fans have grown each day on where former Chiba Lotte Marines pitcher Roki Sasaki will be playing in the 2025 season.

Since he is an international amateur free agent under the age of 25, he will have to sign a minor league contract by rule if he signs on Dec. 15 because he is still considered an amateur player by the MLB. It is more than likely Sasaki will wait to sign on Jan. 15 to forgo playing in the minor leagues and get an increase in salary. According to Ben Badler of Baseball America, the most an MLB club can spend to sign Sasaki would be $7.56 million.

The posting system

Sasaki is still waiting for an official post date from Chiba. In the NPB posting system, any player in the league that wants to become an international free agent before playing nine years in the league can request to be posted for MLB teams by his Japanese club. Under the current rules that were instituted in 2018-19, the release fee that the Lotte Marines would be 20 percent of the total guaranteed value of $25 million or less. All 30 MLB teams have 45 days to negotiate with a player after he is posted. Chiba is set to post him this winter, according to MLB.com’s Thomas Harrigan.

Best landing spots

Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are fresh off winning the 2024 World Series and signed both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter. They have a long history of signing Japanese players dating back to Hideo Nomo in 1995. The signing of Ohtani and Yamamoto coupled with their history of Japanese baseball players in their franchise has made them a beloved team in Japan. Ohtani and Yamamoto are also former World Baseball Classic teammates of Sasaki back in 2023.

The Dodgers have also shown a personal interest in
signing him. In October before the MLB postseason started, Dodgers president Andrew Friedman and vice president of player personnel Galen Carr traveled to Japan to see Sasaki pitch in person.

Financially, the Dodgers are also in a great position to sign Sasaki. They have over $2.5 million remaining in their 2024 international bonus pool, which is the highest in the league, per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo. For the 2025
international bonus pool, they have over $5.1 million available in their
coffers.

San Diego Padres: During
the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Sasaki formed a close friendship with Yu Darvish, who has been with the Padres since 2021. Darvish mentored Sasaki as Team Japan would win their third WBC title. He has been known in the MLB as a well-known advisor to Japanese baseball players that want to make the move in playing in the United States. Per Mayo, the Padres only have $2,200 available to spend in the 2024 international bonus pool but have available over $6.2 million available in their 2025 international bonus pool.

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have scouted his games in Japan as they are trying to upgrade their pitching staff. Last season, the starting pitching staff combined for a 3.77 earned run average, the 10th best in the MLB. Sasaki has the potential to improve on those numbers. Per Mayo, they have $237,200 to spend in the 2024 international bonus pool and over $6.2 million in the 2025 pool.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies have in Sasaki, according to Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer, which is a surprise. They have scouted Sasaki in Japan, and they wooed but were unsuccessful in their signing of Yamamoto last year. They
are trying to upgrade their pitching staff and have $42,200 available in the
2024 international bonus pool and over $6.2 million for 2025, per Mayo.