How Trump’s Plan to Label Some Drug Cartels ‘Terrorists’ Would Work

President Trump’s call for the State Department to start the process of designating certain cartels as global terrorists and foreign terrorist organizations could give his administration more power to impose economic penalties, travel restrictions and potentially even take military action inside foreign nations.

In the executive order he issued on Monday, Mr. Trump named two gangs in particular that operate inside the United States: the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua and the El Salvadoran MS-13. Using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the government could take additional steps to disrupt the financial networks of the gangs.

While MS-13 has been active in the country for decades, Tren de Aragua has had a growing presence in the country in recent years, coinciding with an influx of Venezuelans coming to the United States for refuge.

It is up to the State Department to decide which organizations to tag as foreign terrorist organizations, a decision it makes after consulting with other agencies in the federal government, which can take months. Mr. Trump’s order gave just 14 days for State to make a recommendation.

The department typically gives the label to groups with ideological objectives, while drug cartels and gangs have financial motivations.

Previously, Mr. Trump has indicated he wants to declare certain Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, as a way to apply maximum pressure on the country to rein in its dangerous drug trade. On Monday, as he signed the executive order in the Oval Office, he said Mexico will probably be unhappy with this step.

Mr. Trump sought to slap the designation on the cartels during his first term, but was ultimately dissuaded by Mexican officials who pledged to cooperate with the United States on fighting them. Similar proposals have been introduced in Congress.

Analysts say the U.S. government already has many of these tools available for use against cartels, which is why some caution that the designation is not necessary and could bring more violence.

Here’s what is expected if the State Department makes the designation.

It would send a message to the world.

Attaching the label to cartels would send a message to the rest of the world that the United States is serious about defeating them.

Those who support the designation often point to violence against Americans to justify the classification. But military action against the cartels could lead to more organized attacks on Americans, including inside the United States.

“Drug cartels could easily turn into real terrorist organizations,” Brian Michael Jenkins, a terrorism expert at the Rand Organization, has said.

As it is now, drug cartels have not carried out politically motivated attacks on Americans or American interests. They are not targeting American embassies or U.S. vessels in the Gulf of Mexico, for example.

“Where violence occurs, it’s usually a byproduct of some of the financial dealings related to the criminality associated with the movement of drugs,” said Jason Blazakis, the former director of the State Department’s counterterror finance and designations office. He was referring to violence against Americans committed by Mexican drug cartels.

Prosecutors could use criminal charges that cast a wide net.

Once an organization is labeled a terrorist group, it is against the law for people in the United States to knowingly provide support to it. Given the drug distribution system across the country — from kingpins to corner drug slingers and buyers — this could significantly broaden the number of people facing serious repercussions, potentially ensnaring people whose connections to the cartel are tenuous.

The charge of material support to terrorism carries up to a 20-year prison sentence and in some cases life in prison if the support results in death. It is not clear what this would mean for dealers in the United States whose clients die from overdoses.

U.S.-Mexico trade and diplomacy could sour.

Mexico is one of America’s largest trading partners. Fracturing the relationship between the two countries could have significant economic repercussions, including on millions of American jobs.

Mexico also has been integral to helping to control illegal crossings into the United States. If Mexico ended those efforts, it could lead to an increase in unlawful migration at a time when a top priority of the new administration is to reduce those flows.

“The impact on diplomatic relations would be severe,” said Mr. Blazakis, now a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, Calif.