Pep Guardiola’s Man City blow 3-0 lead with 15 minutes to go in UCL: The problem isn’t just Rodri missing

Manchester City’s winless streak grew to six games on Tuesday and in surprising fashion, blowing a 3-0 lead to tie 3-3 with Feyenoord in the UEFA Champions League. In the process, City became the first team in UCL history to fail to win a match after leading by three goals in the 75th minute, per Opta.  

Though they did not look exactly like their vintage selves by the 75th minute, City put in the work to boast a 3-0 lead. The scoreline reflected their dominance, taking 14 shots and putting seven on target while limiting Feyenoord to two shots on frame at that point. Erling Haaland was poised to be the story of the game with his brace, making him the fastest player to reach 50-goal involvements in the history of the Champions League.

Anis Hadj-Moussa’s 76th-minute goal, though, was far more than a consolation for Feyenoord. It was both the spark that allowed the visitors to score two more times in the span of 13 minutes courtesy of Santiago Gimenez and David Hancko, as well as a reminder of how much things have come off the rails for City.

One can easily trace City’s downward spiral back to September when Ballon d’Or winner Rodri tore his ACL. It had long been clear that the midfielder was the glue binding Pep Guardiola’s tactical strategy together, and it was also obvious that the team would miss him as they looked for a fifth successive Premier League title and their first Champions League title since 2023. Two months since his injury and six games into the longest winless run in Guardiola’s career, though, it is also apparent that their woes are not entirely attached to Rodri’s absence.

City have become somewhat wasteful in front of goal this season, trending in the wrong direction in a variety of ways this season. While their expected goals average is holding steady at 2.2 per game, they averaged more goals (2.6) last season than they are this time around (2.0) despite taking fewer shots per game (18.7 to 20.2). Their decreased production in attack has made the margins of their victory tighter, diminishing the high-scoring tendencies that have made them such a dominant side over the last decade and change.

Guardiola’s side are also surprisingly reliant on Haaland, whose 15 goals make up 38% of City’s goals so far this season. His 38 goals last season only accounted for 26% of City’s goals, and he was far from the only one putting up big numbers last season. PFA Player of the Year Phil Foden scored 27 times across all competitions, while Julian Alvarez scored 19 times before moving to Atletico Madrid over the summer. While Haaland is scoring at a similar pace as last season, Foden has just three goals in all competitions so far this campaign and City did little to replace Alvarez.

City’s slowdown in attack has been worsened by their decreasing defensive ability in recent weeks. They have conceded 18 goals during their six-game winless run, seven of which came in the last few days alone if you include their 4-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday. They have come off sloppy individual errors that have begun to add up – City now average 1.4 goals against per game, a significant increase from the 0.9 goals against they posted last season, which also included a month-long spell with injury for first-choice goalkeeper Ederson.

Rodri may undeniably be City’s best player, but it feels unreasonable to attribute their regression solely to his absence, even if it plays a major part. Considering the squad composition and the apparent refusal to refresh the squad in the summer, it felt like this season was going to be a last dance of sorts for Guardiola’s dominant but aging side. The bet to extend the glory days by one more year, though, is that this particular version of City may have been closer to the end than originally anticipated.

Guardiola being Guardiola, there’s still a chance he can find tactical solutions to get out of this mess. They may be eight points behind Liverpool in the title race, but that’s not exactly irreversible at this stage of the season, and they are still in a strong position to advance to the next round in the Champions League. City being City, they can also arguably lure whichever players they want to Manchester if they feel that’s the quickest fix.

Whatever the solutions may be, though, they are slowly running out of time to find them. Sunday’s clash at Liverpool will offer another progress report on the state of City, but their six-game winless run proves that Guardiola’s side struggle in all kinds of games, not only the big ones. This poor run of form is as obvious a sign as any that Guardiola’s City, as we know them, just might not work anymore, signaling the end of an era.