Oilers’ Evan Bouchard: Defensive Liability or Mastermind? – The Hockey Writers Edmonton Oilers Latest News, Analysis & More

Evan Bouchard has been one of the most interesting cases of a player that the fanbase either loves or hates depending on who you ask. The Edmonton Oilers’ youngster has proven himself to be an offensive mastermind alongside the likes of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and has found a way to establish himself as one of the smartest offensive-minded defenders the NHL has seen in a long time, with some even drawing comparisons to Colorado Avalanche superstar Cale Makar.

Related: Oilers & Lighting Almost Made Blockbuster Draisaitl-for-Kucherov Trade in 2019

The one question that follows him around is whether or not he is a smart defender who plays the game well in his own zone, and the answer varies depending on who you ask. Personally, it has never been easy to look past his blunders that have cost the Oilers in the past, so I would side with him being a liability, but the analytics would disagree with me. Let’s look at both sides of the argument because Bouchard’s critics and fans are split right down the middle.

This season, Bouchard has scored seven goals and added 20 assists for 27 points through 36 games. Throughout his career, he has scored 48 goals and added 150 assists for 198 points through 301 games. He exploded offensively last season scoring 18 goals and adding 64 assists for 82 points through 81 games.

What Does “Strong Defensive Play” Mean?

The first thing that needs to be discussed in this article before moving forward is what it means to be a good defender and what one would chalk up as strong defensive play. One of the most popular articles regarding this topic was from “NHL Sid” at Oilers Nation who broke down his standpoint, explaining that the first thing that comes to mind for most people when discussing a good defender is a tall, physical defenceman who blocks shots and can clear the defensive zone, and they may be evaluated by the vast majority if they were directly at fault for a goal against.

While that’s exactly what comes to mind for me first, he brings up a fantastic point in mentioning that the concept of defending is a lot harder to define than offensive play, considering it’s easy to see goals and assists on a stat sheet. He follows up with his definition of defending, which he claims can be defined as the prevention or suppression of goals from the opposing team. Realistically, it depends on who you ask, but let’s keep that in mind as we continue through this article.

He mentions that the only thing that matters for a player as a defender is if they did their job at preventing goals. Now, this is where I begin to disagree, considering plenty of NHL scouts and staff around the league still heavily value those aspects of the game. However, maybe the defensive style of hockey is changing, maybe the definition should be changed and teams should start to look at the game differently, maybe there is a point in saying that there could be more value in a defender who can suppress goals and can dominate offensively, but at the same time, why would we change the definition because one player is starting to play the position differently?

The truth is, we can’t. It’s impossible to define what good defensive hockey is properly and the answer will change depending on who you ask. However, the article from Oilers Nation paints a fantastic picture as to how strong Bouchard’s analytics are and why he could be worth more than Darnell Nurse’s $9.25 million annual salary. That’s where my issue begins, considering the Oilers will likely be paying two defenders more than $20 million annually as they try to push for their first Stanley Cup since 1990, and it just doesn’t make any sense.

Bouchard’s Analytical Strength

You can’t base Bouchard’s value on analytics alone, considering I have seen several examples of players who have strong analytical numbers but aren’t consistent and can’t maintain a job at the NHL level, one perfect example would be former Oilers forward Jesse Puljujarvi, who was placed on waivers on Monday (Dec. 30), who consistently has fantastic underlying numbers but can’t seem to keep his job in the NHL. Let’s look at how strong Bouchard’s analytics look because they’re rather impressive.

His defensive metrics are fine, and improving. A player like him will always have his positives attributed to someone else (McDavid! Ekholm!) and all negatives focused in on. Overall impact is overshadowed by the occasional Big Mistake.https://t.co/OCFLkuLzLK pic.twitter.com/Z1LPsJurQK

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) December 5, 2024

His even-strength offensive production, his value on the man advantage, his finishing ability, everything all looks quite strong except for his even-strength defending. As we can see on the chart in the bottom right corner of the model, his defensive ability seems to be improving as the seasons go on. My question would be, how is that possible? We have seen several times this season where Bouchard’s lazy style of play in the defensive zone, specifically his lackluster back-check against the Toronto Maple Leafs earlier this season, led directly to a loss, yet his defensive metrics remain strong. It doesn’t make any sense, and it makes me wonder how much of an analytical darling he is.

Let’s take a look at another model from HockeyStatCards, as they have been well respected by the analytics community for several seasons. As you can see below, Bouchard doesn’t crack the top 10 in either offensive rating or defensive rating, but his net rating (both combined) places him higher. With that in mind, it is yet another model that showcases his offensive ability is strong, but his defensive game is not among the most elite in the NHL, which is the point I am trying to make.

Top defenders by Rating: pic.twitter.com/QxtXlaFB4b

— HockeyStatCards (@hockeystatcards) December 31, 2024

I have never questioned Bouchard’s offensive ability. I maintain the opinion he is one of the strongest offensive-minded defenders in the NHL, and analytics would agree with me. Where they would disagree is his defensive play, since they seem to agree with the definition of defending that I mentioned earlier, which is that he suppresses goals and keeps the puck out of the Oilers’ net. However, how is he suppressing goals and helping the team win when he has been the direct cause of goals against and losses this season? If he doesn’t make that mistake against the Maple Leafs and backchecks, the Oilers win, it’s a perfect example I will always resort back to.

One argument someone brought up to me was Bouchard’s possession numbers are so dominant that he doesn’t need to defend well. My response was simple, if you don’t want to play your position, switch to playing forward. I have no issue with a defender who plays an offensive style of hockey in a depth role, but it seems insane to say someone who can’t play their position properly should be considered an elite defender just because he does well in the offensive zone, far away from where his position is supposed to be strong. However, this relates again to the definition of defending, which to many people seems to agree with the analytical definition, and therefore may shut down my argument altogether.

Eye Test vs Analytics

The popular “eye test” argument has been something that many fans are split down the middle on around the NHL. In short, the eye test is exactly what it sounds like, it’s what someone sees with their own eyes. The flaw with this would be that unless you’re being paid to track stats and watch every move from a specific player, your opinion might be skewed if you miss just one play. Using Bouchard as an example, if you use just the eye test, it’s hard to find any argument to support Bouchard being a strong defender considering the majority of his time in the defensive zone doesn’t look strong.

For me, I have tried to use both the eye test and analytics to consider both sides of the argument considering I have never fully understood the narrative from the analytical community that he is one of the most consistent defenders in the NHL. I mean, if you ask anyone who doesn’t look at analytics, they would tell you he is a defensive liability with a great shot and some offensive upside. However, even after looking through hours of video on Bouchard in the defensive zone watching his breakouts, his decision-making, and his willingness to battle in the corners, I still don’t understand how the analytics are so favorable for his defensive ability.

What Does Defending Mean to Me?

Let’s shift to my opinion, which is that he is a one-dimensional defender who has a strong offensive side but lacks consistency in the defensive zone. For me, it’s hard to ignore the analytics, but it’s also hard to ignore the meaning of what a defender is, which is if they can break the puck out well, if they have poise in the defensive end, if they can get the puck in deep from the neutral zone, if they don’t panic because of pressure from a forecheck, and if they can play an odd-man rush well.

Let’s be honest, Bouchard doesn’t do much of that very well. He is average at best in terms of breaking the puck out, but he often loses his puck battles to a forechecker, he doesn’t play an odd-man rush well whatsoever, he doesn’t have poise with the puck and often panics under pressure, and he is lazy getting back to the defensive zone.

The basic definition of defending exposes the flaw of analytics, which is what they choose to ignore. You can’t change the definition of defending to help your case that he plays a strong defensive game with analytics when it’s pretty clear he doesn’t. For someone to say that his offensive game is so dominant that his defensive issues don’t matter, is simply ridiculous. Yes, his offensive game is strong and he can put the puck in the back of the net, but we can’t ignore the fact he is a defender, not a forward, so his offensive dominance doesn’t matter if he can’t play his position.

One of the biggest issues for me is where he sits in the NHL in terms of most giveaways, as he sits 8th in the entire league. Someone pointed out to me that giveaways are a flawed stat because of who he goes up against and with him getting more ice time, of course, he is going to make more mistakes. I completely disagree, and I think that excuse is ridiculous. If you’re trusted to play more minutes, you shouldn’t be giving the puck away, it’s simple really. There are plenty of top-pairing defenders and elite forwards who are well below Bouchard, why is it okay for him to give the puck away because he plays more?

Bouchard: Defensive Liability or Mastermind?

So, is Bouchard a defensive liability or a defensive mastermind? Realistically, it will depend on what you value as a fan. For me, he is a liability defensively but is extremely valuable as an offensive weapon. For the analytical fans, he is one of the most dominant two-way defenders the NHL has seen in a long time. For the regular fan, it will depend on what they see as more valuable whether it be his offensive production or his defensive blunders, the answer will be completely different.

The biggest issue I have with Bouchard’s love from most fans is how ridiculously overrated he has become, which could lead to one of the most insane overpays the NHL has ever seen. He is a good player, maybe even a great player who brings value to the Oilers because of his offensive production, but don’t call him an elite defensive player when his defensive blunders have led directly to a loss or at least, a goal against.

When I have argued about Bouchard previously, I have referred to him as one of, if not the worst defender in the NHL. All things considered, I may have exaggerated a bit. However, I maintain the opinion that he is one-dimensional. I mean, the analytics showing his offensive game is so dominant he doesn’t need to play defensive hockey proves my point.

Trying to change the definition of what defending is so that it benefits Bouchard because he dominates possession and offensive production as a defender, is just further proving my point. We shouldn’t be trying to change what a defender is, or what it means to defend, simply because it benefits the argument that analytics are the most valuable tool. They’re valuable, but they don’t take many things into account.

All things considered, this doesn’t make Bouchard a bad player, but it’s important to recognize what he is good at. Luckily, the Oilers have lots of time to discuss a reasonable contract extension to bring back one of the most elite offensive-minded defenders in the NHL, and they can continue to work on his defensive consistency as the season moves along.

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