Oilers’ Bouchard & Islanders’ Dobson: The Parallel Struggles of 2 Borderline Superstars – The Hockey Writers Edmonton Oilers Latest News, Analysis & More

At the 2018 NHL Draft, the New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers held consecutive picks, both targeting a right-handed defenseman. The Oilers selected London Knights captain Evan Bouchard at No. 10, while the Islanders followed by choosing Acadie-Bathurst Titan captain Noah Dobson at No. 12, right after picking Oliver Wahlstrom at No. 11. More than six years later, the connection between Bouchard and Dobson goes beyond the usual rivalry between first-round picks, as they now face similar challenges entering crucial 2024-25 seasons.

Bouchard & Dobson’s 2023-24 Breakouts

Ahead of the 2023-24 NHL season, Bouchard and Dobson were considered borderline top-four defensemen. In Edmonton, Bouchard had played in all but one of the Oilers’ games over the previous two seasons, yet averaged under 20 minutes of ice time per game. Despite consecutive 40+ point seasons, he had yet to prove himself as a complete defenseman. On Long Island, Dobson had a bit more trust from the coaching staff, averaging nearly 21 minutes per game over the last two seasons while scoring exactly 100 points in 158 games. However, he was still not fully established as the Islanders’ top-pair defenseman, placing behind Ryan Pulock. The 2023-24 season, however, was a turning point, establishing both players as stars.

Related: New York Islanders Should Wait to Extend Noah Dobson

Playing alongside Mattias Ekholm, Bouchard delivered an impressive 82 points in 81 games, including 18 goals and 64 assists, while averaging 23 minutes per game. Before the season, many claimed he relied on Connor McDavid and the power play to generate offense, but he proved the doubters wrong, as just 42.7% of his points came on the man advantage. For comparison, Cale Makar had 43.3%, Adam Fox 45.2%, and Quinn Hughes 41.3%.

While the then-23-year-old still had his fair share of struggles, Bouchard took his game to the next level on both ends of the ice. He held a 68.4 goals percentage (G%) and 67.1 expected goals percentage (xG%), the highest in each category in the entire NHL. Alongside Ekholm, he conceded just 2.22 expected goals per 60 minutes, the 13th lowest of all defensive pairs in the NHL (min. 500 minutes) and lower than the pairings of Jacob Slavin and Brent Burns (2.26), Devon Toews and Makar (2.31), and Hughes and Filip Hronek (2.51). There is no doubt about it, Bouchard was among the best defensemen in the NHL, yet many fans refused to give him his flowers.

For the Islanders, Dobson’s breakout was to a lesser extent, but still poignant. He finished this season with 10 goals and 70 points in 78 games while averaging 24:30 minutes of ice time per game. He did this while splitting time between defense pairings and picking up double shifts on the penalty kill due to a pile-up of injuries. He finished the season with 1,936 minutes played, the 13th most in the NHL, a 57.6 G% and 51.1 xG%. He was among the best two-way defensemen in the NHL, and if not for a late-season injury due to being overworked, his numbers would be even better.

Bouchard & Dobson Have Struggled

After their standout performances in the 2023-24 season, expectations for Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson soared—and rightfully so. Both are elite talents with the potential to dominate in the NHL. However, they are still relatively young, and as the 2024-25 season got underway, both encountered difficulties, leading to frustration among their respective fan bases.

For Bouchard, his offensive production has slightly dropped off, but his advanced metrics have remained consistent, including his defensive analytics. However, a few costly mistakes have amplified the fanbase’s frustrations. These mistakes include a careless defensive zone turnover to Matthew Knies of the Toronto Maple Leafs on Nov. 16, which resulted in the game-tying goal, and a sluggish backcheck later in the same game that allowed Bobby McCann to score the go-ahead goal for Toronto on a breakaway late in the third period.

For Dobson, the story is the same as last season, as injuries to Alexander Romanov, Adam Pelech, and Mike Reilly have forced him to pick up additional shifts and learn to play alongside NHL rookie, Isaiah George, who had just four games of professional experience prior to his NHL debut on Nov. 5. While George has looked good, Dobson’s defensive partner is far from ideal, yet Islanders’ fans have decided to overlook the circumstances and expect perfect results by highlighting his lack of physicality in board battles and occasional turnovers.

Bouchard & Dobson In Contract Years

With Bouchard and Dobson following similar paths to the NHL, their contract situations have mirrored each other. After their entry-level contracts expired, both signed bridge deals set to end in the 2025 offseason. Now in contract years, the two pending restricted free agents are aiming for lucrative, long-term extensions, but their early struggles this season could impact those plans.

For Bouchard, his potential remains higher than Dobson’s. As Edmonton’s top defenseman, he was likely eyeing a long-term deal worth over $11 million annually, but his early-season struggles may prompt management to delay discussions. Still, as the team’s best defenseman, a contract in the $10 million per year range is likely within reach.

Dobson’s ceiling has always been comparable to Bouchard’s, but he needed to elevate his game during the 2024-25 season to warrant a similar deal. His early setbacks may impact not only the Islanders’ view of his annual salary but also the length of the contract. Before the season, an eight-year deal valued at $64 million ($8 million per year) seemed reasonable, but now, committing to that term appears riskier. However, it seems Dobson and Islanders’ management have agreed to pause negotiations until the end of the season, leaving room for a strong finish to restore the organization’s confidence.

Social media reaction to Bouchard and Dobson’s struggles has been fierce. The two teams have each underwhelmed to begin the season, and fans are not happy about it, resulting in blame getting thrown around. While it is true that the two defensemen have slightly regressed, they are each still in their mid-20s and remain two of the best defensemen in the NHL. It is fine to criticize them — I would even encourage it — but it is important to keep in mind they are still among the best defensemen in the NHL.