Not just China, Trump 2.0 could spell trouble for U.S. allies as he doubles down on tariff talk

Donald Trump, who has been doubling down on his tariff-heavy trade policy, appears to have shifted the focus of his protectionist agenda from China to some of the closest U.S. allies.  

Speaking at a campaign event in Savannah, Georgia, on Tuesday, the Republican presidential nominee said he would build upon the tariff policies of his first term in an effort to take manufacturing jobs from foreign countries — both friends and foe. 

“You will see a mass exodus of manufacturing from China to Pennsylvania, from Korea to North Carolina, from Germany to right here in Georgia,” he said in his mostly economic-centered speech. 

“I want German car companies to become American car companies, I want them to build their plants here,” he added. 

In his first term, Trump had imposed billions of dollars worth of duties on Chinese goods as part of efforts to rectify what he saw as an unfair trade balance. Trump has said he would consider new tariffs on imports from the country at rates of 60% or higher.

U.S. allies could become a key target of Trump’s “America First” policy that is increasingly grouping European and Asian partners alongside rival China. The former President has proposed blanket tariffs as high as 20% that would hit imported good from all countries.

“We have been treated so badly, mostly by allies … our allies treat us actually worse than our so-called enemies,” Trump said at a rally in Wisconsin earlier this month. 

“On military, we protect them and then they screw us on trade. We’re not going to let it happen anymore. We’re going to be a tariff nation,” he added. 

The comments echoed statements Trump made about Taiwan earlier this year when he accused it of taking “about 100%” of U.S. chip business. He also said that the democratically governed island should pay the U.S. for its defense. 

Trump has long sought to place economic and diplomatic pressure on U.S. allies, accusing them of “free-riding,” and his recent statements signal he’s doubling down on that approach, said Nick Marro, Lead for Global Trade at Economist Intelligence. 

Experts have said that Japan is also worried about what could be another “transactional” Trump Presidency and his mentions of 100% tariffs on certain car imports. “Will that include Japanese automakers? So there’s a lot of uncertainty here at the moment about what the next five years could look like,” author William Pesek told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” in July.

“One of the riskiest aspects of Trump’s proclivity towards tariffs is that other countries won’t take these actions sitting down. Retaliation by other U.S. trade partners — whether that be via reciprocal, retaliatory tariffs, or other non-tariff measures — is a potential consequence of all of this,” Marro said.

Trump also said on Tuesday that he plans to create his “manufacturing renaissance” through the implementation of corporate tax cuts, the creation of low-tax special economic zones and tax credits for companies moving production to the U.S.

“These policies could potentially attract some manufacturing back to the U.S., particularly for industries sensitive to trade barriers,” said Stephen Weymouth, a professor of international political economy at Georgetown University. 

“However, these plans are unlikely to bring about a broad reshoring of industries, given the complexities of global supply chains and higher labor costs in the U.S.,” he added. 

Economist Stephen Roach also told CNBC that Trump’s tariffs would hurt America’s trade partners while only increasing the costs of goods for American consumers and manufacturers. This is consistent with mainstream economic opinion on tariffs.

“U.S. manufacturers who rely on foreign parts and components would take a double hit — their inputs would be more expensive because of Trump’s tariffs, and their exported products would be more expensive because of retaliatory tariffs,” said William Reinsch, Scholl Chair in International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

Trump, however, has maintained that other countries will foot the bill. “I’m not raising your taxes; I’m raising China’s and all of these countries in Asia and all over the world, including the European Union, which is one of the most egregious,” he said at his Wisconsin rally.

Reinsch said that the tariffs, if implemented, would also represent a clear break between long-standing U.S. trade policy and mainstream economic thinking. 

Particularly when it comes to dealing with China, the current Biden administration has heavily relied on a coordinated approach with like-minded partners like Japan and the Netherlands to enforce trade restrictions. 

While the Biden administration has maintained most of Trump’s China tariffs and even increased levies on specific high-tech industries, Reinsch described the difference between the two’s approaches to trade restrictions as “Trump’s sledgehammer vs. Biden/Harris’ scalpel.”

Still, the extent to which Trump’s tariff proposals are genuine or more of a threat has also been a subject of debate. 

In an interview with CNBC TV18 released on Tuesday, Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co, said some of Trump’s top advisors had told him that the proposed tariff rates were more of a negotiating tactic for favorable trade deals rather than an expected outcome.