NFL Week 7: Dougherty’s NFL betting guide, Part 2

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Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders

Sunday, Oct. 20, 4:05 p.m., CBS
Spread: Commanders -8
Total: 50.5

The Commanders held their own in a competitive loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week. They’re averaging 34.3 points over the last four games, and here comes a Carolina defense that ranks dead last in points allowed per game. 

The Panthers gave up 198 rushing yards in a blowout loss to the Atlanta Falcons last week. Andy Dalton will be able to move the ball through the air against this Washington secondary, but can the defense hold up? Spoiler alert: Probably not. 

Mismatch to exploit: Commanders offense vs. Panthers defense

We can’t decide on a specific matchup in this one, but the Commanders should be able to score and move the ball at will against this defense. Check out Washington’s team total over.

Prediction: Commanders 34, Panthers 21

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Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, Oct. 20, 4:25 p.m., FOX
Spread: 49ers -1.5
Total: 47

If Vikings-Lions isn’t the game of the year, this Super Bowl rematch might be. The Chiefs have beaten the 49ers four straight times, including twice in the Super Bowl. Kansas City has the advantage again in this matchup coming off its bye week.

Brock Purdy has been fantastic for the 49ers, but they’ve had trouble making stops and holding leads in the second half. San Fran will need to play a complete game to hold off Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs. 

Mismatch to exploit: Brandon Aiyuk vs. Trent McDuffie

McDuffie and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo are extremely effective at taking out the opponent’s No. 1 option. Check out Aiyuk to go under his receiving yards.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, 49ers 22

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New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, Oct. 20, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Spread: Jets -2
Total: 38.5

The Jets haven’t been good enough on offense this year, so they made a move to reunite Adams with Aaron Rodgers this week. Rodgers should have some fun with Adams, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall at his disposal, but the offensive line still has a lot of work to do. 

As for the Steelers, they’re benching Justin Fields after his 4-2 start for Russell Wilson. Wilson should be able to push the ball downfield to Georgie Pickens, but he doesn’t have the escapability Fields does. That could be a problem against New York’s ferocious defensive line led by Quinnen Williams. 

Mismatch to exploit: Russell Wilson vs. Jets defense

This is a tough spot for Wilson in his first start with the Steelers. The Jets generate a ton of pressure up the middle and will be able to feast on this offensive line, so take a look at Wilson to throw an interception or go under his passing yards.

Prediction: Jets 20, Steelers 13

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Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Monday, Oct. 21, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Spread: Ravens -4
Total: 49.5

The Ravens have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL since their 0-2 start. Derrick Henry has rushed for 574 yards and six touchdowns over the last four weeks, which is opening up running lanes for Lamar Jackson on the outside. This offense looks unstoppable right now.

Speaking of unstoppable offenses, the Buccaneers are coming off a 51-point explosion against the Saints. Baker Mayfield leads the NFL with 15 touchdown passes, and he’ll continue to air it out against a Ravens defense that ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game.

Mismatch to exploit: Baker Mayfield vs. Ravens secondary

As we just mentioned, the Ravens give up explosive plays down the field, but they’ve shut down the run this year. Check out Mayfield’s passing yards and passing touchdowns props.

Prediction: Ravens 29, Buccaneers 27

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Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals

Monday, Oct. 21, 9 p.m., ESPN+
Spread: Chargers -2
Total: 44

Jim Harbaugh is bringing Michigan’s football identity to Los Angeles. The Chargers rank first in points allowed per game, third in rush play percentage and dead last in seconds per play. L.A. loves to grind the clock and limit possessions, which is bad news for Arizona’s erratic offense.

Good luck figuring out which version of the Cardinals is going to show up from week to week. Coming off an upset win on the road against the 49ers, Arizona got blown out by the Green Bay Packers in Week 6. The defense ranks dead last in opponent third-down conversion percentage, 28th in opponent yards per play and 27th in points allowed per game.

Mismatch to exploit: Chargers defense vs. Kyler Murray

The Chargers defense keeps everything in front of them and limits explosive plays. With Marvin Harrison Jr. questionable to play, take a look at Murray’s under passing yards.

Prediction: Chargers 20, Cardinals 19