NFL Week 7: Dougherty’s NFL betting guide, Part 1

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Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, Oct. 20, 1 p.m., FOX
Spread: Falcons -3
Total: 51.5

After a 3-0 start to the season, the Seahawks dropped three straight games to fall back to .500. This banged-up defense has given up 35.7 points over the last three games, but they’re finally starting to get healthy in the front seven and might get Byron Murphy back this week. 

Murphy’s status is crucial for Seattle considering the Falcons ran for 198 yards against the Carolina Panthers last week. Atlanta’s offense is starting to click with 100 points over the last three games, and this is another defense it can take advantage of. 

Mismatch to exploit: Geno Smith vs. Falcons secondary

Smith is averaging 41.8 pass attempts and 28.8 completions per game in this pass-happy offense, and the Falcons rank dead last in opponent completion percentage and sack rate. Check out Smith’s passing attempts and completions prop overs.

Prediction: Seahawks 29, Falcons 27

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Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday, Oct. 20, 1 p.m., CBS
Spread: Bengals -6
Total: 41.5

Welcome back, Nick Chubb! Chubb is expected to return to the field this week for the first time since he suffered a gruesome knee injury in Week 2 of last season. We don’t expect him to immediately fix an anemic Browns offense that just lost Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills, but this is a solid matchup against Cincinnati’s 28th-ranked rushing defense.

The Bengals continue to create explosive plays on offense, and the defense finally showed some signs of life last week by holding the New York Giants to only seven points. Cincy’s defensive line should feast against a Browns offense that’s given up an NFL-high 31 sacks through six games.

Mismatch to exploit: Bengals defensive line vs. Browns offensive line

As we just mentioned, the Browns have been unable to protect Deshaun Watson all year. Take a look at Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson to go over their sack props.

Prediction: Bengals 22, Browns 18

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Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills 

Sunday, Oct. 20, 1 p.m., CBS
Spread: Bills -9
Total: 41

The Bills traded for Cooper this week because Josh Allen is averaging his fewest passing yards per game since 2019. Now that Allen has a true WR1 at his disposal, this offense could explode. That might not begin this week against a Titans defense that ranks No. 1 in passing yards allowed per game.

The defense hasn’t been the issue for Tennessee. It’s been Will Levis, who has a 27.3 QBR, leads the league with seven interceptions and managed only 95 passing yards against a dreadful Indianapolis Colts secondary last week. Levis’ time as the starter is ticking. 

Mismatch to exploit: Will Levis vs. Brian Callahan

Callahan has just about had enough of Levis under center. Betting all of Levis’ prop unders could be the play this week considering he could be benched at any point in this game.

Prediction: Bills 24, Titans 13

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Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Sunday, Oct. 20, 1 p.m., FOX
Spread: Eagles -3
Total: 43

It’s hard to lay three points on the road with the Eagles right now considering the man calling the shots from the sideline. Nick Sirianni has struggled with in-game decisions all season, and he was seen jawing back and forth with Philly fans after last week’s sloppy win against the Browns. The talent on this roster can only overcome so much of his antics. 

Malik Nabers should be back on the field this week after missing the last two games, and he should be in for a big game against an Eagles defense that struggles to defend the pass and could be without Darius Slay. 

Mismatch to exploit: Malik Nabers vs. Eagles secondary

The Eagles have given up a touchdown to their opponent’s WR1 in four of their five games this season, and the one time they didn’t was against Watson and the Browns. Look for Nabers to find the end zone in this matchup.

Prediction: Giants 23, Eagles 21

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Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday, Oct. 20, 1 p.m., CBS
Spread: Packers -2.5
Total: 47.5

This should be a fun one. The Texans didn’t seem to miss Nico Collins last week when they put up 41 points and 5.9 yards per play against the Patriots. Joe Mixon returned to the field and picked up right where he left off with 102 rushing yards and a score. This balanced offense can keep up with the Packers even without one of the best wideouts in football.

The Packers are starting to find a real groove offensively, as they’ve put up 80 points in their last nine quarters played. Jordan Love has thrown nine touchdown passes in that span, but this isn’t an easy matchup against a Texans defense that leads the NFL in opponent completion percentage and ranks fourth in sack rate.

Mismatch to exploit: Packers rush defense vs. Joe Mixon

Mixon’s rushing yards prop is likely going to be inflated this week after a big performance against the Pats, but the Packers have been elite at stopping the run all year. Check out Mixon to go under his yards.

Prediction: Packers 26, Texans 23