NFL Week 6: Dougherty’s betting guide 

Week 6 of the NFL season is almost here. It won’t be easy to match the drama we witnessed in Week 5, but you never know in this league. Let’s break down every matchup on the Week 6 slate and find a way to attack them from a betting perspective. 

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San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Thursday, Oct. 10, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Spread: 49ers -3.5
Total: 48.5

The 49ers are coming off another inexplicable loss against the Arizona Cardinals in which they didn’t score a point in the second half. The good news is Brandon Aiyuk finally came alive with 147 yards on eight catches, but the struggling defense may not improve on a short week with six starters on the injury report.

The Seahawks are also coming off a bad loss against the New York Giants, and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb took some of the blame for not feeding Ken Walker enough. Expect a more balanced offensive attack this week.

Mismatch to exploit: Jordan Mason vs. Seahawks run defense

Seattle’s banged-up front seven gave up 129 rushing yards to Tyrone Tracy last week. Take a look at Mason’s rushing yards over.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Seahawks 26

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, Oct. 13, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
Spread: Bears -1.5
Total: 44.5

The Jaguars head to London this week for back-to-back games across the pond. Jacksonville finally got a win on the board last week against the Indianapolis Colts, and Tank Bigsby may have replaced Travis Etienne as the starting running back with 101 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the game. 

The Bears are coming off their best performance of the season in a 36-10 win against the Carolina Panthers. Caleb Williams continues to improve with each passing week, and now he gets to face a Jags secondary that just let Joe Flacco torch them for 359 yards and three scores. 

Mismatch to exploit: Caleb Williams vs. Jaguars secondary

Williams has gone over 300 yards in two of his last three games, and Jacksonville ranks dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game.

Prediction: Bears 24, Jaguars 20

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Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday, Oct. 13, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Packers -5.5
Total: 47.5

Good luck trying to figure out the Cardinals from week to week. Arizona hung tough with the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions, dominated the Los Angeles Rams, upset the 49ers and got demolished by the Washington Commanders. Kyler Murray is the Jekyll and Hyde of the NFL.

Jordan Love has made some costly mistakes since returning from his knee injury, but don’t be surprised if he sneaks back into the MVP conversation with a few wins and monster performances in a row. This is a good week to start.

Mismatch to exploit: Jordan Love vs. Cardinals secondary

The Cardinals rank 30th in opponent completion percentage and yards per pass. Love should be able to produce explosive pass plays through the air and go over his passing yards prop.

Prediction: Packers 27, Cardinals 21

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Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Sunday, Oct. 13, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Colts -1.5
Total: 43.5

The Colts offense looked the best it has all season with Flacco under center last week, but Anthony Richardson seems to be on track to return on Sunday. If he plays, we’ll get the treat of being able to watch two of the most volatile, turnover-prone quarterbacks in Richardson and Will Levis go toe-to-toe. If only there was a way to be the over on hilarious pick sixes, strip sacks and overthrows.

Mismatch to exploit: Titans secondary vs. Anthony Richardson

The Titans are giving up the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL, and Richardson may be without Michael Pittman on Sunday. With a chance of reinjury or benching also in play, Richardson’s passing yards under should be a play.

Prediction: Titans 19, Colts 17