NFL underdog report: AFC divisional playoffs

Henry rushed for 199 yards as the Ravens beat the Bills 35-10 in Week 4. Buffalo running back James Cook ran for a season-high 120 yards against the Broncos last week but had only 39 yards against Baltimore’s top-ranked run defense in September.

In other words, Sunday’s game should come down to the quarterbacks. If the Ravens’ 31st-ranked pass defense can’t stop Bills quarterback and MVP front-runner Josh Allen, then Jackson could have to outscore him without leading receiver Zay Flowers, who missed last week’s game with a knee injury.

It won’t be easy but Jackson could steal the game, and possibly the MVP award, with another strong performance against the Bills.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)

When the Texans defense plays like it did against the Chargers last week, they can beat anyone in football, including the defending Super Bowl champions. Houston didn’t just win, they took L.A.’s  soul in a 32-12 upset victory in last week’s wild-card game.

Not only did the Texans register four sacks on Justin Herbert, they intercepted him four times for 108 yards, a career-high for the Chargers quarterback who’d only thrown three picks all year. 

“Our defense, they dominated today,” head coach DeMeco Ryans said. “And that’s who we want to be. They played our brand of football.”

Of course, the Texans offense did its part as well. QB C.J. Stroud threw for 282 yards with a touchdown to wide receiver Nico Collins, who caught seven of eight targets for 122 yards and a score. Stroud also ran for 42 yards, while running back Joe Mixon rushed 106 yards and a score.

But can they do it against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium? Houston lost 27-19 on the road to Kansas City in Week 16 in a game the Texans lost wide receiver Tank Dell to a season-ending knee injury. Needless to say, Houston should have plenty of motivation for Saturday’s game.

While the Chiefs offense ranked six spots ahead of the Texans in 2024, it managed only 7.9 more yards and 0.7 more points per game than the Texans. Meanwhile, only four teams gave up more yards per contest (315.0) than Houston in the regular season.

It won’t be easy, but if the Texans can build on the momentum gained from last week’s win, they could catch Kansas City sleeping and advance to the AFC Championship Game.