NFL MVP odds: Where does red-hot Lamar Jackson stand now?

A few words of warning to all NFL non-quarterbacks: Your chances of winning the league MVP are near nil, especially this season.

Per FanDuel as of Friday (Nov. 8), the players with the best odds of winning the award this season are all quarterbacks.

Since 2000, only four non-QBs have earned an MVP Award: running backs Marshall Faulk of the Rams (2000), Shaun Alexander of the Seahawks (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson of the Chargers (2006) and Adrian Peterson of the Vikings (2012).

Here’s a look at this season’s MVP favorites:

Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders

His season: Daniels has been by far the most impressive rookie in the NFL this season, and he’s one of the better players overall of any draft class. Washington (7-2) is first in the NFC East and Daniels is the main reason for that. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner from LSU has a QBR that’s second highest in the league at 75.7. Daniels checks out on the advanced numbers, too. His Pro Football Focus grade is 88.6, which is the third highest in the league.

His outlook: The only rookie to win MVP was a guy named Jim Brown, who accomplished that feat for the Browns in 1957. So as good as Daniels has been, history suggests it isn’t his time yet. His MVP odds are +800.

Jared Goff | Detroit Lions

His season: Goff, whose MVP odds are +800, is the pilot of the offense that leads the NFL in scoring average (32.3 points per game). Of course, the quarterback has played a big part in that. He has 14 touchdown passes to just four interceptions, and he leads the league in completion percentage at just under 75%. If Goff’s completion percentage, which is officially 74.9%, holds up, he’ll break the NFL record set by New Orleans’ Drew Brees (74.44) in 2018.

His outlook: Like Daniels, Goff is a long shot. FanDuel has the two with the same odds. The NFL MVP is based solely on the regular season, so even if the Lions (7-1) make a deep playoff run, that won’t be a factor in the voting.

Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs

His season: Mahomes has been one of the NFL’s best players since becoming a starting quarterback in the 2018 season. He has 11 TD passes and nine interceptions, but he’s sixth in the league in QBR (69.2). Mahomes has the fourth-highest grade among QBs, per Pro Football Focus (86.4). Plus, the Chiefs (8-0) are the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten team.

His outlook: Mahomes, already a two-time MVP, will be a candidate as long as he’s a capable starting QB. As of Friday, his FanDuel odds  (+500) are a distant third, but Mahomes gets better as the weather gets colder. He could still make a run.

Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills

His season: Bills fans have come to expect excellence from Allen, and he hasn’t disappointed them this season. He has 17 TD passes, two interceptions and the fourth-ranked QBR (73.2). His rushing numbers are on pace to be down from last season (524 yards and 15 TDs last season to 211 yards and three TDs in 2024), but he’s still been an effective dual threat. Allen’s PFF grade of 78.1 is 12th among QBs. The Bills (7-2) will go as far as he can take them.

His outlook: Allen (+340) has the second-best odds of winning NFL MVP. Unlike Mahomes and the current front-runner, Allen has never won the award. 

Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens

His season: The reigning league MVP could well win the award again in 2024. Jackson, who also won the award in 2019, his first full season as a starter, is lighting it up again. In a come-from-behind win over Cincinnati on “Thursday Night Football,” he threw for 290 yards and four touchdowns.

“He’s carrying us,” Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey said after the game, per Jamison Hensley of ESPN. 

Jackson is second in the league in passing yards (2,669), first in QBR (77.6) and has a league-leading 24 TD passes (along with Joe Burrow) to only two interceptions. His rushing numbers (538 yards, two TDs, 5.9 yards per carry) are also excellent, as always. PFF has Jackson with a grade of 92.5, the best among NFL QBs.

His outlook: Before Thursday’s game, Jackson had the second-best NFL MVP odds behind Allen. He’s now the favorite at +170.