NFL betting guide: Dougherty’s Week 3 picks and predictions

Coming off a wild NFL Week 2 in which eight underdogs won outright, we turn our attention to a crucial Week 3 for all the 0-2 teams out there. A few Super Bowl contenders are already close to must-win territory, so how does that affect our handicapping for this week? Let’s find out with our picks and preview for every game on the Week 3 NFL slate. 

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New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Thursday, Sept. 19, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Spread: Jets -6 
Total: 38.5

Week 3 begins with an AFC East battle between the Patriots and Jets, two teams that love to feed their running backs and win with defense. The problem for the Jets is their defense hasn’t lived up to the high expectations entering the year. New York gave up 401 total yards and 32 points to the San Francisco 49ers and let the Tennessee Titans rush for 4.6 yards per carry in Week 2. This isn’t the elite defense we expected to see, and Jermaine Johnson is now out for the season after tearing his Achilles.

The Patriots have been stellar on defense, but they’re so reliant on Rhamondre Stevenson to generate any offense. If the Jets shut down Stevenson, it’s hard to imagine the Pats scoring enough points to win this game. 

Mismatch to exploit: Both defense vs. both offenses
The defenses are by far the two best units in this game. The under has to be the play, especially on a short week. 

Prediction: Jets 16, Patriots 13

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Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, Sept. 22, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Colts -1.5
Total: 43.5
 
The Bears should be 0-2 based on how inept their offense has looked through two weeks. Chicago ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play (3.0) and passing yards per game (99.0). Caleb Williams should have a better performance against a Colts defense that allowed Malik Willis to go 12/14 for 122 yards and a touchdown.

Anthony Richardson had a poor passing performance last week, as he completed only 50 percent of his attempts and threw three picks. That might not improve this week against a strong Bears defense.  

Mismatch to exploit: D’Andre Swift vs. Colts run defense
Swift has had trouble finding running room behind this Bears offensive line, but he’s getting a large majority of the touches. The Colts are giving up the most rushing yards per game in the NFL, so take a look at Swift to go over his rushing yards prop. 

Prediction: Bears 24, Colts 21

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New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday, Sept. 22, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Browns -6.5
Total: 38.5

The Giants are bad. Like, really bad. New York gave up seven field goals in its loss to the Washington Commanders last week, but the good news is Malik Nabers looked like a future star with 10 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown.

The Browns got their mojo back with a strong defensive performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2, and Deshaun Watson played much better in the win.  

Mismatch to exploit: Browns offensive line vs. Giants defensive line
The Giants rank 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per rush (5.3). Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman are solid targets in the prop market this week. 

Prediction: Browns 20, Giants 17