NFL 2024 playoff race: What to watch in Week 18 as Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings battle for No 1 seed

The final week of the 2024 NFL regular season is here, with division titles to be won and playoff seedings to be decided on the final stretch towards Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. Here’s what to watch in Week 18…

NFC No 1 seed

While the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs have wrapped up the No 1 seed in the AFC, the NFC race will continue into the final day of the regular season.

The Minnesota Vikings kept their hopes of a first-round bye alive on Sunday as they held off a late fightback from the Green Bay Packers to clinch a 27-25 victory and move to 14-2, remaining in the hunt alongside the Detroit Lions and continuing their staggering season behind comeback quarterback Sam Darnold and Coach of the Year candidate Kevin O’Connell.

It leaves Week 18 perfectly poised as the Vikings and Lions go head to head once more knowing the winner will secure the No 1 seed while the other heads into a Wild Card match-up against either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Atlanta Falcons.

Detroit prevailed in a thriller between the NFC North rivals earlier this season as Jared Goff threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns alongside two rushing scores from Jahmyr Gibbs to neutralise Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense on the way to a 31-29 win.

Goff’s career resurgence is old news by now as he pilots the league’s most prolific and innovative offense as part of a Detroit team among the Super Bowl favourites after years of hurt. He has thrown for 4,095 yards and 33 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions while surrounded by a stable of explosive young talent in 1,000-yard men Gibbs and Amon-Ra St Brown and a supporting cast of Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta.

Darnold meanwhile refuses to fade as one of the stories of the season, riding a Geno Smith-esque resurrection while throwing for 4,153 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 picks to lead Minnesota to the playoffs having secured a starting spot by way of JJ McCarthy’s offseason injury. The Vikings reaching the postseason had felt like a stretch upon Kirk Cousins departing; to secure the No 1 seed would have been unthinkable.

Rodgers and Wentz to have final say?

Some familiar faces could still have a part to play in making or breaking the season for three teams as the Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals contend the final wild card spot in the AFC.

The Denver Broncos remain in pole position to secure a playoff berth at 9-7 and as current occupants of the seventh seed, knowing they will advance if they beat the Chiefs. Kansas City, with nothing to play for, are expected to rest their starters in view of January, which could mean a certain Carson Wentz having a final say in playoff proceedings as Patrick Mahomes’ backup quarterback.

Miami are 8-8 and will advance if they can beat Aaron Rodgers’ New York Jets and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs, while the Bengals, also 8-8, will progress with a victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday evening and defeats for both the Broncos and Dolphins. If all three teams lose, it will be Denver that secure the final spot.

Somehow, even amid a torrid season with the Jets, Rodgers still has a role to play in how the NFL playoff picture shapes up as he resumes his pursuit of a 500th career touchdown pass. And it is a funny time in the world when the Dolphins and Bengals are reliant on former Philadelphia Eagles man Wentz.

Who will win the NFC South?

Only three division titles are still up for grabs heading into the final weekend of the regular season: the Vikings and Lions are set to battle it out for the NFC North, the Baltimore Ravens and Steelers are tussling for the AFC North, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons are fighting for NFC South honours.

Strangely enough in the AFC North, the Ravens might not mind settling for runner-up given it would leave them in position to face an unconvincing Houston Texans team that they just steamrolled on Christmas Day. Meanwhile, awaiting the loser of the Vikings and Lions’ final-day clash will be the NFC South champions.

Tampa Bay currently sit top at 9-7 after cruising to a 48-14 win over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday before seeing the Falcons slip up in a 30-24 overtime defeat to the Washington Commanders that leaves Raheem Morris’ side 8-8. The Falcons conclude their campaign at home to Bryce Young’s Panthers, while the Bucs welcome Darren Rizzi’s New Orleans Saints, on a three-game skid, to Raymond James Stadium.

The Bucs will be division champions if they beat the Saints, but defeat for Tampa and a win for Atlanta would see the Falcons snatch the title having beaten Todd Bowles’ side twice this season to control the individual head-to-head.

Who wins NFL MVP?

The NFL’s fiercely-contested MVP race will continue into the final weekend of the regular season, with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson seemingly neck-and-neck as the two frontrunners with some potential competition from Joe Burrow and Saquon Barkley.

Allen is unlikely to feature when the Buffalo Bills take on the New England Patriots having already helped Sean McDermott’s side lock in the No 2 seed in the AFC, leaving Mitchell Trubisky primed to start in his place. He recently became the first player in NFL history to record five consecutive 40-touchdown campaigns after accounting for 18 total touchdowns to just one turnover across five games in December.

Jackson can punctuate his final case for a third career MVP award when the Baltimore Ravens face the Cleveland Browns on Saturday evening with hopes of snatching the AFC North division title from Pittsburgh. He arrives into the final week having thrown for 3,955 yards and 39 touchdowns to just four interceptions, as well as rushing for 852 yards and four touchdowns having just snapped Michael Vick’s record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL history.

Burrow has meanwhile thrust himself into the conversation by way of a phenomenal individual season to keep Cincinnati’s slim playoff aspirations alive with a four-game winning streak that has seen them move to 8-8 heading into the final game. The former No 1 overall pick has completed a league-high 423 passes for a league-leading 4,641 yards and 42 touchdowns to eight interceptions, amassing the league’s best quarterback rating in the process. Can he rescue a campaign that had looked dead in the water?

Who clinches the No 1 Draft pick?

The Giants face the prospect of not only watching Barkley break the rushing record against them, but also missing out on the No 1 pick at the Draft. Brian Daboll’s side had occupied the No 1 pick heading into Week 17 before finally deciding to turn up on offense as they shattered the Indianapolis Colts’ playoff hopes in a 45-33 victory, improving to 3-13 but sliding to No 4 as a result.

The New England Patriots currently sit at No 1 and will take on the Bills in Week 18 after dropping to 3-13 with their 40-7 defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers, followed by the Tennessee Titans (3-13) at No 2 as Brian Callahan’s side prepare to face the Houston Texans and the Cleveland Browns at No 3 ahead of their clash with the Ravens.

Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward are projected as the top two quarterbacks at the Draft, while two-way Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter is also expected to be among the first players off the board.

Saquon chases history… or not

It had looked like Saquon Barkley would have a shot at history on the final day after leaving himself within reach of Eric Dickerson’s all-time NFL single-season rushing yards record. Barkley rushed for 167 yards to help the Philadelphia Eagles clinch the NFC East title with victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17, making him the ninth player in NFL history to pass 2,000 yards in a season.

In doing so he left himself needing just 101 against the New York Giants in the final game to overtake Dickerson’s record of 2,105, which he has held since 1984. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni, however, admitted this week Barkley is likely to be among the starters that are rested in view of the playoffs.

“It’s a very special record that’s been standing for a very long time by a great player,” said Sirianni. “It’s a team record that everybody is involved in, so you weigh in all those things.

“But at the end of the day, you just try to do what’s best for the team. Again, when the bye was, how guys are feeling, the bumps and bruises we can take care of. We’ve put ourselves in a position to be able to be in this situation. And our goals are to have success and to play good the next game we play. Not only New York, but whoever we play after that. We think this plays into that.

“It’s not easy. It wasn’t the easiest decision to go through, but we have great people in this building and had a lot of input from a lot of different people, players included.”

When do the playoffs begin?

Wildcard weekend will take place from Saturday January 11 to Monday January 13 before the playoffs enter the Divisional Round on Saturday January 18 and Sunday January 19, at which point the respective No 1 seeds will join the action following their bye.

It is then onto the AFC and NFC Championship Games on Sunday January 26, before Super Bowl LIX takes place at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on February 9.

Who would meet in playoffs if season ended today?

Wild Card Weekend:

AFC
Denver Broncos (No 7 seed) @ Buffalo Bills (No 2)
Los Angeles Chargers (No 6) @ Baltimore Ravens (No 3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (No 5) @ Houston Texans (No 4)

NFC
Green Bay Packers (No 7 seed) @ Philadelphia Eagles (No 2)
Washington Commanders (No 6) @ Los Angeles Rams (No 3)
Minnesota Vikings (No 5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No 4)