NFL 2024 playoff race: Is Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings the ‘most important NFL regular-season game in history’?

The battle for the NFC North reaches its climax on the final day of the NFL regular season this weekend as the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions go toe-to-toe once again.

Kevin O’Connell and Dan Campbell’s sides enter Sunday 14-2 knowing victory will secure not only the division title but the NFC’s No 1 seed and a crucial first-round bye in the playoffs.

The loser will, meanwhile, settle for the No 5 seed, meaning a wild-card match-up with either the Los Angeles Rams or Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

At the heart of both lies resurgent quarterbacks, Jared Goff having resurrected his career to catapult Detroit into contention after being traded away by the Rams in exchange for Matthew Stafford in 2021, and a written-off Sam Darnold among the stories of the 2024 campaign as a Comeback Player of the Year frontrunner after spearheading a surprise playoff charge following the offseason departure of Kirk Cousins in Minnesota.

“We get research notes sent to us from NFL Network and they are billing it as the most important regular-season game in NFL history,” said Sky Sports NFL’s Neil Reynolds on Inside the Huddle.

“These two quarterbacks in terms of passing yards and passing touchdowns since Week 11 are the most prolific in the NFL. Jared Goff is No 1, Sam Darnold is No 2, so I think we’ll get our points here.

“I’ll lay this out as maybe a difference: Detroit in their last four have given up 31, 48, 17 and 34 points, most recently their 40-34 win over San Francisco, but even that was a positive because they didn’t need that game and still won it.

“I do worry slightly. If I’m going to trust one defense more, I’m going to trust Brian Flores and the Vikings. But I think Detroit find a way, it doesn’t matter to Dan Campbell, Jared Goff and that team, at home, if you score 40 they will score 42.”

The Vikings kept their hopes of securing the No 1 seed alive last weekend with an impressive victory over the Green Bay Packers, marking their ninth straight victory. Among their defining components has been a blitz-heavy Brian Flores defense ranked fourth in scoring, second in rushing and first in EPA/play while being tied-first with 31 takeaways on the year.

Awaiting them is a high-octane Detroit attack ranked second overall, first in scoring, second in passing, sixth in rushing and third in EPA/play.

“The Vikings have just come off this great showing against Green Bay and Matt LaFleur talked about how they weren’t ready for the percentage of man coverage the Vikings were playing, they aren’t known for being a man defense team, but 85 per cent of coverage on third and fourth down versus Jordan Love was man,” said Sky Sports NFL’s Phoebe Schecter.

“Their ability to adjust to the teams they play, their comfort ability with understanding different positions and schemes and how they can show one thing and do another, it’s going to be a tough one.

“You can tempt Jared Goff into some of these throwing situations and because of who he is, he is going to let it rip, you can take advantages of turnovers.”

Darnold enters Sunday having completed 343 of 504 passes (68.1 per cent) for a fourth-most 4,153 yards and 35 touchdowns to 12 interception amid a career year.

He signed a one-year deal with the Vikings in March in view of a quarterback competition with JJ McCarthy following the departure of Cousins, only to secure a free run at the starting job after a season-ending injury to the rookie first-round pick.

Darnold had spent the previous season as back-up to Brock Purdy in San Francisco, following two seasons with the Carolina Panthers on the back of a three-year stint with the New York Jets after being selected as the third overall pick at the 2018 Draft.

“You talk about the leading quarterbacks in the NFL, and among them are Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield – you look at young quarterbacks that haven’t worked out right now, but let’s see where they are in four or five years, it really is fascinating,” added Reynolds.

“Goff is so far removed, he is so entrenched as a successful starter with Detroit, you forget that they took him off the Rams’ hands to get Draft picks, I don’t think Detroit were sold on Jared Goff at the start.

“There are quarterbacks that have been in bad situations, Sam Darnold spent a good few years on the bench and then in he comes in a good situation.

“We had it a couple of years ago with Geno Smith, quarterbacks can be rescued and they can rebuild their careers. They are a product of their environment, but also play a massive part because you have to be careful not to say they aren’t good, it just wasn’t brought out of them.”

Goff guided the Lions to the NFC Championship Game for the first time in 32 years last season after thrusting himself into the MVP conversation amid a drastic career revival. He has maintained that form in 2024 by completing 363 of 506 passes (71.7 per cent) for a second-most 4,398 yards and 36 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, his 113.6 passer rating bettered only by Lamar Jackson.

“You look around the league, what Goff has done is phenomenal, he has truly re-invited himself,” said Schecter. “It goes to show what it can do when you really develop a quarterback, and makes you think there are a lot of quarterbacks not doing much.

“It just needs that one person to see what you can do, just because you might be a coach in the NFL it doesn’t mean you’re the best educator and can connect with somebody enough to understand their needs.

“That’s why the Vikings and Lions are such overall complete teams.”

Detroit emerged victorious when the two sides met in a thriller earlier this year, neutralising the Flores defense to the sight of a 31-29 win as Goff threw for two touchdowns, while Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 116 yards and two scores.

“The anticipation, nobody will be sleeping, everybody will be calling in sick to work on Monday, nobody can miss this game,” said Schecter.

“It is going to be phenomenal, you know these two teams and how they operate, they are explosive, they are so fun to watch.

“With everything on the line, this is where these two teams show up the most, when the lights shine bright the stars show up. It’s essentially your Conference Championship preview.”