Netanyahu in poll rebound after Hezbollah attacks

Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity, which was battered after the Hamas attacks on 7 October, has been boosted by his country’s military successes against Hezbollah, a new opinion poll suggests.

A picture has been widely shared of the Israeli PM in New York giving the order for the biggest of these – the assassination of the Lebanese armed group’s long-time chief, Hassan Nasrallah.

A poll for Israel’s Channel 12, released on Sunday night, indicates the Israeli PM’s Likud party would win more seats than any other if a general election was held.

However, it did not project a win for him overall, instead suggesting the current opposition parties would have more MPs, enabling them to form a coalition.

Fortunately for Netanyahu, his former political rival, Gideon Saar, also joined his fractious coalition government on Sunday, a step that should strengthen the prime minister.

“We will work together, shoulder to shoulder, and I intend to seek his assistance in the forums that influence the conduct of the war,” Netanyahu said.

Saar will serve as a minister without portfolio with a seat in the Security Cabinet, the body overseeing the management of the war against Israel’s regional enemies.

By joining the government with his four-seat party, Netanyahu has a much more solid majority of 68 in the 120-seat parliament.

Rumours had swirled in recent weeks that the position of defence minister currently held by the popular, seasoned, former military general Yoav Gallant would go to the relatively less experienced Saar.

However, that move seemed to be abandoned as Israel began its series of major strikes against Hezbollah.

For Netanyahu, the new composition of the government weakens the power of his National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir. The far-right winger has repeatedly threatened to topple the coalition if it goes ahead with a “reckless” deal to end the war in Gaza and bring home hostages or agrees to a permanent ceasefire with Hezbollah.

The coalition could now survive without Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power party’s six seats, giving Netanyahu more room for manoeuvre.

Once seen as a rising star of Likud, Saar left the party and became one of the most vocal critics of the prime minister arguing that Netanyahu should not continue to serve while battling corruption charges. He has framed his decision to join the government as an act of patriotism, fostering unity.

However, he has been sharply criticised by some Israeli commentators who describe him as acting cynically in his own self-interest.

“Saar’s decision to join the government is certainly a painful blow to a large number of Israelis who think that Netanyahu needs to go, and not just because he is being tried on criminal charges, and not just because he is the most corrupt, hedonistic and lying prime minister Israel has ever had,” said Yedioth Ahronoth columnist, Sima Kadmon.

She sees that his action “will stabilise and boost the worst government ever to have served in Israel, so much so that the original date of the next elections, October 2026, now appears to be a realistic date”.

Certainly, the extra seats could also help solve another challenge facing Israel’s most far-right ever government.

At this sensitive time of war, when the military has a pressing need to expand its ranks, divisions have opened over the passage of a new military conscription law.

The Israeli Supreme Court ruled in June that the state must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students into the army. They have historically been exempted, and such a move is vehemently opposed by two ultra-Orthodox parties upon which the coalition depends.

Deepening his personal rift with the prime minister, in July, Yoav Gallant approved a plan to begin sending out draft notices to 1,000 18-26-year-olds from the ultra-Orthodox community.

A slick political strategist, Netanyahu – Israel’s longest serving leader – did see a big drop in the support for his party in polls at the end of last year.

His personal image as “Mr Security” was badly damaged after the 7 October attacks – the deadliest day in Israeli history, when Hamas surprised one of the world’s best intelligence services and the best resourced military in the region took hours to respond.

However, by August, opinion polls suggested the prime minister had begun to bounce back.

That was despite the invasion of Gaza turning into Israel’s longest ever war with no sign of its objectives being met: the complete destruction of Hamas and bringing home Israel’s remaining hostages.

The latest poll gives Likud as many as 25 seats. Altogether coalition parties would be expected to take 49 seats, while opposition parties would win 66.

According to the research for Channel 12, Netanyahu also remains the favourite candidate for prime minister over the centrist opposition leader, Yair Lapid – with 38% favouring him over his rival who has 27% support.

Much in Israeli politics depends on what happens next as Israel’s multi-front war reaches a critical moment.

As Israel hints at a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, tens of thousands of Israeli citizens in the north of the country still do not know when they will return to their homes – an official goal for Israel.

If Hezbollah’s main ally Iran decides to attack, the consequences are unpredictable.

On the international stage, Israel looks increasingly isolated. International courts are considering whether to put Israel on trial for genocide and have requested an arrest warrant for the prime minister and his defence minister on allegations of crimes against humanity.

The ultimate test of Netanyahu’s resilience could be yet to come.