NBA’s eight biggest stretch-run storylines: Are Lakers contenders? Will 76ers tank? Who wins MVP and DPOY?

The post-All-Star portion of the NBA schedule has kicked off, and it’s going to be an entertaining sprint to the finish. Most teams have fewer than 30 games remaining. It’s stretch-run time, baby. Here are eight big storylines to watch over the last two months of the 2024-25 regular season. 

1. Luka and the Lakers

So far, the Lakers are 1-2 with Luka Dončić in the lineup with the two losses to the Jazz and Hornets. Luka is averaging under 15 PPG on on 35% shooting. He’s 5 for 24 from 3. Ouch. This is sure to improve, but it will be a real question whether Luka and LeBron can be great enough to overcome the Lakers’ inability to defend on the perimeter with no real rim protection behind them, either. 

Luka is already being hunted on defense. The trade was more for the future than the present, but that doesn’t mean the Lakers don’t think they can compete for a title this season. They probably can’t, but they’re also just two games in the loss column out of the No. 2 seed. 

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Jasmyn Wimbish

That would potentially keep them from having to play OKC until the conference finals, and maybe they get lucky with the Nuggets, who will bludgeon them with Nikola Jokić, falling to No. 4 so the Lakers can also avoid them through the first two rounds. This could also happen if the Lakers fall to No. 6 and the Nuggets fall to No. 4. 

Those two matchups would almost certainly end L.A.’s season, but they can beat anyone else in the West on the right four nights. Call the Lakers circumstantial contenders in that way. The bracket probably needs to break right. It will be interesting to watch it all take shape. 

2. The Warriors are ready to make a run

The Warriors (28-27) are in the last play-in spot, but just three games back from the No. 6-seed with 27 games to play against the league’s softest remaining schedule. They can make a run here. How big of a run. Well, Draymond Green looked into the camera and guaranteed the world that the Warriors are going to win the championship. 

That’s a long way off, but Jimmy Butler does fill a lot of the holes that were sinking the Warriors. It’s all about easy baskets, which were few and far between until Butler showed up. With a legit second star in the lineup, the Warriors are getting seven more free throws, six more shots in the restricted area, and 10 more points per game off turnovers. 

3. It’s a two-man MVP race

Barring injury, it’s a two-man race for MVP between the current betting favorite, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Nikola Jokic, who is having the best season of his career, which is quite a statement for a three-time MVP. 

Jokić is top five in points, assists, rebounds and steals and is on track for the highest PER in history. The Nuggets fall off by over 24 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, when he sits. Denver is a top-three seed. 

SGA, the best player on arguably the league’s best team, leads the league in scoring at 32.5 PPG on the best true-shooting mark (63.9) of his career. He’s third in steals per game. His 128.7 points per 100 shot attempts ranks first among all starting point guards, per Cleaning the Glass, and he owns the league’s top individual point differential at plus-692; that’s more than 200 points better than Jokić and 300 points better than the next highest Thunder player, Lu Dort. 

Both guys have nearly perfect cases, but only one can win. This race is not decided. It will be fascinating to watch them race down the stretch of these next seven weeks toward what will almost certainly be a photo finish. 

4. Will the 76ers tank?

Will the Sixers just pack it in and try to keep their 2025 first-round pick, which goes to Oklahoma City unless it lands in the top six? They should. After getting waxed by Boston on Thursday, with Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey all in the lineup, they’re one game back of the No. 10 seed and six games back of the No. 9 seed, which means the best they can realistically hope for is to jump Chicago for the last play-in spot. 

From there, Philadelphia would have to win two play-in games just for the right to play probably Cleveland or Boston in the first round. This season has been a mess. The Sixers aren’t anywhere near good or stable enough to just flip the proverbial switch. Let Embiid get the knee surgery he clearly needs sooner than later. Rest George in the hopes that he can play next season without having to get injections in his pinky, and by extension, hopefully at a level at least halfway worthy of the max deal the Sixers gave him. Try to keep the draft pick in a strong class. Start over in 2025-26. The Eagles’ Super Bowl win can hold the fans over until then. 

5. Can Kyrie keep Dallas afloat?

Throw out the loss to Cleveland in the immediate aftermath of the Luka trade, when the Mavericks, still in shock and supremely shorthanded, had to start Dante Exum, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Kylor Kelley, and Dallas has gone 4-2 since losing Luka and is within two last-second shots — a miss by Naji Marshall and a make by DeMar DeRozan — of six straight wins. All of this despite Anthony Davis lasting all of 31 minutes into his first game with the Mavs. 

Anthony Davis injury update: Mavericks star to miss at least two more weeks with groin strain

Jasmyn Wimbish

Kyrie Irving is keeping this team together, as crazy as that would’ve sounded a few years ago. Since the Luka trade, Irving’s averaging just under 28 points on deadeye 47/40/90 shooting splits. The question is: Can Kyrie keep the Mavericks, currently one game back of the No. 7 seed and three back of No. 6 but also just two games above the lottery line, afloat long enough for Davis, who is slated to be reevaluated in a couple weeks, and/or Dereck Lively II or Daniel Gafford to get back? If he can, this will be a dangerous team in the playoffs. 

6. Brand-new DPOY race

With Victor Wembanyama (deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder) ruled out for the rest of the season on Thursday, the Defensive Player of the Year trophy, thanks to the 65-game minimum requirement, is back up for grabs. 

The new betting favorites, according to Caesars Sportsbook, are Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr. (+100) and Cleveland’s Evan Mobley (+130). Jackson doesn’t rebound, but he’s a monster defender who was, in at least a few ways, actually closer to Wemby’s level of impact than you might think. 

For one, the Grizzlies‘ defenses falls off more when he sits than San Antonio’s does when Wemby sits, as does Cleveland’s when Mobley sits for that matter. The Grizzlies are conceding fewer paint points per 100 possessions with Jackson than the Spurs are with Wemby. Jackson almost doubles Wemby’s steals per game, and scorers’ efficiency drops by 10% relative to expected shooting percentage when defended by Jackson, which is a greater margin than Wemby and double that of Mobley. 

Now, opponents are shooting worse at the rim against Cleveland with Mobley on the floor than they are vs. the Grizzlies with Jackson, but Mobley has Jarrett Allen also impacting a lot of that. They both block about the same amount of shots. Mobley is an awesome defender who makes some truly spectacular plays, but Jackson, for my money, would edge him out if the vote happened today. 

But ballots aren’t due for another seven weeks. There’s time to watch this play out some more, and we also shouldn’t forget about “The Great Barrier Thief” Dyson Daniels, the league’s larceny leader who’s averaging a steal per game more than any other player. Daniels is a total long shot (perimeter players almost never win the award and Atlanta is an extremely average defense). 

NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds: What does Victor Wembanyama’s injury mean to the award race?

Sam Quinn

Amen Thompson might honestly be the best defender in the league not named Wembanyama, and his Rockets are the fourth-best defense in the league. You can get him at +6000 if you want to take a flyer. 

7. Knicks get Mitchell back

We know pretty much everything there is to know about the Knicks because Tom Thibodeau plays his top guys a million minutes a night and they have all been healthy (OG Anunoby has missed 10-plus games but that’s not significant). There is no mystery to what this team will look like in the playoffs. 

Except one thing: center Mitchell Robinson is coming back. 

And this is no small matter. You’re talking about a seven-footer who was an elite rim protector and the best offensive rebounder in the league the last time we saw him. That can be a monster addition for the Knicks, who can now play two-big lineups with Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns at times and also ride Mitchell’s defense in the non-Towns minutes. 

We get the next seven-ish weeks to see how Mitchell looks and how Thibodeau is deploying him. It’s a brand-new reason to pay attention to a team that has otherwise already shown us everything that it is. 

8. Deee-troit basketball!

At this point last season, the Pistons had eight wins. This season they are 29-26 and in control, by a fairly comfortable margin, of the East’s No. 6 playoff seed. That’s by far the league’s biggest year-over-year win jump. If you say you had that on your bingo card, you’re a liar. 

Cade Cunningham is in the running for All-NBA, and J.B. Bickerstaff should be right there with Kenny Atkinson for Coach of the Year, which is interesting because Atkinson is doing the things Bickerstaff couldn’t do in Cleveland in terms of speeding up the offense and empowering Evan Mobley. 

There is no more surprising team than the Pistons right now. They play hard. They defend. Cunningham, who is one of just two players, with the other being Jokić, averaging at least 25 points, nine assists and six rebounds, can be the best player on the floor on any given night. Detroit is two games up in the loss column on the Heat and three up on Orlando for the final playoff spot. If they can hang onto it, what a great story it would complete.