NBA power rankings: Thunder rule, Bucks crumble

X-Factor: Chet Holmgren

Holmgren came into the season even fiercer than before, and while his three-pointer hasn’t fallen, his strength has shown in other ways. Through the first handful of games, he’s shooting an outrageous 67 percent on twos, drawing far more free throws than last year, and leading the league in blocks (while fouling less and averaging more than a steal per game, to boot).

He’s also upped his rebounding from eight boards to nearly 10 per game, a dramatic increase despite the same amount of playing time. Holmgren is a competitive guy, and he clearly heard all the complaints from fans about OKC’s lack of presence on the glass.

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X-Factor: Kenny Atkinson

There are a lot of reasons you could point to for Cleveland’s blistering start, like Darius Garland rediscovering his three-pointer and aggression, Donovan Mitchell’s continued offensive excellence, Jarrett Allen’s deciding never to miss a shot again, and Evan Mobley’s two-way improvement.

But the most significant change has come from the various schematic tweaks new coach Kenny Atkinson has implemented, like re-orienting the team around a drive-and-kick game and picking up the pace of the offense (a much deeper dive can be found here). Sure, the team is shooting unsustainably well, but it’s clear that the underlying attack has actual teeth now. Combine that third-ranked offensive firepower with the perennially elite defense, and the Cavs have quickly become Boston’s biggest threat in the East.

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X-Factor: Payton Pritchard

Pritchard is up to his usual end-of-quarter shotmaking heroics, but the sheer level of scoring (nearly 16 points per game on 44 pèrcent shooting from deep) has made him an early contender for Sixth Man of the Year (and that’s despite a 1-for-9 performance from beyond the arc in the season opener!).

It’s not just the accuracy. Among leaguewide rotation players, Pritchard is behind only Buddy Hield, LaMelo Ball, and Duncan Robinson in three-point attempts per 100 possessions. The level of shot-hunting is breathtaking.

The Celtics certainly don’t lack firepower, but it’s noteworthy that the vaunted Boston Celtics are better with him on the court than off for the second year in a row.

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X-Factor: Ryan Dunn

It’s easy to pick new coach Mike Budenholzer as the X-Factor here, and he’s done a solid job of putting the stars into better positions to succeed by moving off the ball more often (even if they haven’t been able to hit shots yet). However, there will be plenty of time to celebrate Bud if the Suns keep up their winning ways.

I’d rather take a minute to discuss Ryan Dunn, Phoenix’s 6-foot-8, 210-pound rookie. Dunn has been an elite defender his entire life, and he became Phoenix’s best wing-stopper on Day 1. That’s what got him into the league. But his ability to punish defenses with his outside shot – he’s making 39 percent of his threes on prodigious per-minute three-point volume after being a non-shooter in college – will keep him on the court when it matters.

I was skeptical that Phoenix could maintain last year’s shockingly average defensive rating, but they’re sixth through six games. The offense will catch up, so if the defense remains legitimate, the Suns are a bonafide threat in the West.

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X-Factors: Buddy Hield and Andrew Wiggins

Golden State has beaten expectations in the West, as the Warriors have just one loss on the season so far. The most surprising part isn’t the number of wins; it’s how the Warriors have earned them.

Steph Curry is averaging just 18 points and has played in only three contests, and Jonathan Kuminga has vacillated between bench and starting roles. Instead, the team has been led in scoring by Hield (22 points per game with eyeball-popping 52/52/90 percent shooting splits) and Wiggins (nearly 19 points per game).

Hield is outKlaying the departed Thompson (see what I did there?), and Wiggins looks like the best version of himself. If Golden State can be this good with a hobbled Curry, how high can they soar when he returns to full health?

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X-Factor: Anthony Davis

Things get much murkier after the top five, who have combined for just three losses. Los Angeles deserves some shine for going 4-2 over a difficult opening stretch, including wins against the Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves.

I thought about being cute here and picking JJ Redick (it’s amazing how many new coaches are heading squads off to fast starts, isn’t it?) or Austin Reaves, but truthfully, not even the biggest Davis fans saw this start coming.

AD is leading the league in scoring (!!) while averaging nearly four stocks (steals+blocks). He’s drawn a dozen free throws per game, punished people with his post and face-up games, and polished the glass like a white-glove cleaning service. If he keeps this up, the Lakers will be far more dangerous than anyone assumed in the preseason.

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X-Factor: Klay Thompson

So far, the Klay Thompson experience in Dallas has been remarkably unremarkable. Lineups with all of Thompson, Kyrie Irving, and Luka Doncic have been slightly above average on offense and defense. Neither of those fit preseason expectations.

Klay has been exactly who he’s always been, nailing triples on big volume while forcing up some iffy shots (although he has drastically decreased his two-point attempts, for both better and worse). The defense is still a question mark, and the team is still learning how to utilize him on offense best, so for now, consider Thompson’s grade an “Incomplete.”

Still, this is a very good team that should improve as chemistry further develops.

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X-Factor: Josh Hart

When Hart is on the court, the Knicks outscore opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions. When he’s off, they get outscored by 11.8 points per 100.

Sure, teams will guard him with their centers, but that’s okay. That hasn’t stopped him from vacuuming up 2.4 offensive rebounds per game en route to double-digit boards. Hart pushes the pace, makes timely cuts and passes, and generally does the little things that contribute to winning without showing up on the box score. There are times when the lack of consistent shooting will hurt, but there are so many more times when everything else Hart brings to the table makes up for it.

Frankly, this feels a bit high for the Knicks (we all saw what happened against Boston on Opening Night), but the league is awash in parity, and not much separates teams six through 15 at this point.

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X-Factor: The Bench

Sigh. Yet again, Jokic and the starters are dominating for long stretches before watching despondently as everything goes fruit-shaped in their scant minutes of rest.

The Nuggets starters have a +18.9 net rating. When Jokic is off the floor, that falls to -28.8, a number so scary children aren’t allowed to look at it. Russell Westbrook is shooting 23 percent from the field, and he hasn’t even been the worst backup – reserve center Dario Saric, whose fit I liked before the season, has been worse than useless on both sides and recently received a DNP-CD on a night 13 Nuggets saw action.

Coach Michael Malone has to find some alchemy that can salvage a handful of minutes here and there, or we might see a repeat of last year.

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X-Factor: Julius Randle

After a tough start against a big Lakers team that physically corralled him, Randle has performed well. He has yet to shoot worse than 50 percent from the field, and his three-point marksmanship has been better than expected. He still has bouts of frustrating defense, the spacing is iffy with Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards (there’s a reason Ant is jacking up triples like a nouveau Steph Curry), and coach Chris Finch is figuring out how to deploy him best, but Randle has given reason for cautious optimism – even if fans will be cursing him out on a semi-regular basis.

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X-Factor: Tyler Herro

Wondering how the Heat have a winning record despite down starts to the year for Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo? Look no further than the reinvigorated Boy Wonder. Despite dropping from 65 to 55 touches per game, Herro has equaled last year’s 20.8 scoring mark on far better efficiency: his 60 percent effective field goal percentage would be the best mark of his career by nearly seven points.

This version of Herro is a deadly perimeter weapon who can easily fit around more ball-dominant stars. If Butler and Bam find their level, and Herro stays at this one, we might see the Heat making a play for home-court advantage.

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X-Factors: Jay Huff and Scotty Pippen Jr.

The Grizzlies’ super-subs have been one of the happiest storylines of the year so far. Huff is posting elite shot-blocking numbers and canning more than half of his triples, showing legitimate unicorn skills in small doses. Pippen Jr, meanwhile, is an on-ball defensive menace and sports a top-ten assist mark despite playing just 25 minutes per game!

Both players will likely take slight steps back as the Grizzlies’ starters begin playing more minutes, but they’ve been huge parts of keeping Memphis afloat during a brutal opening start to the season. They deserve recognition.

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X-Factor: Field goal percentage

Maybe calling “buckets” an X-Factor is silly, but I simply had to find a way to shoehorn in this statistical oddity. Houston’s Top 4 scorers are all shooting under 41 percent from the field. Jalen Green is at 40.2 percent, Alperen Sengun just 38.6 percent, Jabari Smith Jr. 40.9 percent, and Fred VanVleet an anemic 28.2 percent.

Astonishingly, Houston still sports the 12th-best offensive rating despite being 27th in effective field goal percentage as a team. At some point, at least a couple of those players will find their shots, and Houston will rocket up these rankings.

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X-Factor: Keegan Murray

Look, on/off stats are misleading at best and meaningless at worst. But it has to say something that Murray has the second-best on/off point differential in the league (behind only Denver’s Christian Braun, if you’re wondering). The team is 43.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on than when he’s off.

That’s despite the fact Murray hasn’t found his footing from deep yet (just 31 percent from beyond the arc!). As the season marches on, we’ll learn if this says more about Murray or the Kings’ bench.

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X-Factor: Jeremy Sochan

Is Sochan making a leap before our eyes, or is it fool’s gold?

Despite being a non-factor from range, Sochan has turned up the defense on some of the league’s best players, guarding everyone from Kyrie Irving and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Alperen Sengun. Even more importantly, Sochan has found ways to be an effective scorer despite the cramped spacing in San Antonio, as he barely trails Victor Wembanyama for the team lead with 17.3 points per game.

That said, lineups with Sochan are far below average on offense. Is it possible his successes are coming at the expense of the team’s? It’s far too early to tell, but it’s something to watch as the season progresses.

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X-Factor: Health (again)

New Orleans was the hardest squad to place in these here power rankings. Yet again, they’ve been besieged by injuries. Dejounte Murray only played one game, newly rich Trey Murphy hasn’t played at all, Zion Williamson has hamstring tightness, and CJ McCollum and Herb Jones have both missed time.

Despite all that, the Pelicans are still trading water at 3-4 with games against Portland (whom they lost once to already), Banchero-less Orlando, and Brooklyn coming up. They’re probably a little too high in these rankings today (despite the record, NO has the fifth-worst point differential in the league), but call it a hunch.

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X-Factor: Dyson Daniels

Atlanta made a wager on Daniels’ growth when they traded away Dejounte Murray for the 21-year-old Aussie and the Lakers’ pick. So far, he’s looked like a good bet.

Daniels has increased his three-point volume and percentage while notching nearly three steals per game and looking far more aggressive on offense. He’s the perfect switchy point-of-attack defender to pair with Trae Young, so if his offense can keep him on the court, Atlanta’s young core looks far more promising.

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X-Factor: Zach LaVine

Raise your hand if you expected LaVine to come out nailing 50 percent from the field and 46 percent from deep on huge volume. No, put them down, you liars! That was a test, and you failed.

LaVine, however, has succeeded in jumpstarting Chicago to a surprising 3-3 record, including wins over Milwaukee, Orlando (without Paolo Banchero), and Memphis (without Ja Morant or Marcus Smart’s shot).

The Bulls probably won’t remain a .500 team for long, but if nothing else, LaVine has rebuilt his trade value as quickly as anyone can. Whether the famously clingy Bulls are willing to sell him to the highest bidder or not remains to be seen.

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X-Factor: Tyrese Haliburton

What’s going on with Haliburton?

The 3rd All-NBAer has looked like a shell of himself to start the year, missing shots like the virus that bricked my computer. The Pacers have been using him in an off-ball role more often this season (something they started to do after they traded Buddy Hield and Haliburton injured his hamstring last season), but it’s limited his passing’s impact without paying dividends from a shooting perspective.

Is it purely about the role? Is he still not right physically? Something’s off in Indiana, and they won’t have a chance of sniffing last year’s success unless Haliburton rediscovers his mojo.

(Beating Boston was pretty impressive, though, even if Indiana nearly blew a gargantuan lead.)

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X-Factor: Guerschon Yabusele

The 76ers faithful haven’t had much to smile about this year, between Joel Embiid shoving a reporter and Embiid and Paul George’s continued absence. But Yabusele has been a rare bright spot.

Six years after his last NBA season, Yabusele has been thrust into a 20-minute-per-night role and largely delivered. His, uh, physical brand of defense leads to a lot of steals (and a lot of fouls), and he’s hit 35 percent of his triples on solid volume.

Yabusele is really the only four-sized four on the roster, so his ability to stick in the rotation could be an underrated storyline for Philly’s playoff hopes (which, of course, hinge entirely upon George and Embiid’s health, but that’s no fun to discuss).

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X-Factor: Tre Mann

LaMelo Ball has gotten most of the attention due to his hot start (30 points per game while shooting 40 percent from deep on giggly volume will do that), but Mann might be the frontrunner for Sixth Man of the Year.

Mann is scoring nearly 20 points per night on solid efficiency, thanks to a ridiculous stepback and some tough shotmaking. He’s even dropping 3.5 dimes and playing better-than-usual defense. After Ball, he’s been the biggest part of Charlotte’s 7th-ranked offense.

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X-Factor: Three-point shooting

Paolo Banchero’s injury immediately after his 50-burger hurts the team’s medium-term outlook (and their play after his injury, which has resulted in three straight losses, hasn’t been inspiring), but the team’s long-term prognosis still depends on how much three-point shooting it can cobble together.

To that end, Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner are holding up their end of the bargain. Suggs continues to drop bombs, while Wagner has rediscovered how to shoot from 24 feet after a year in the wilderness. But it would be nice if pricey offseason addition Kentavious Caldwell-Pope found his shot (19 percent won’t cut it).

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X-Factor: Norman Powell

Absolutely nobody is talking about it, but Powell has been one of the league’s best scorers in this early part of the season. He’s averaged 25 points per game on 51/52/85 percent shooting splits, which would be by far the best numbers of his career on both an absolute and a per-minute basis.

At 31 years old, Powell obviously won’t make half of his threes all season, but he has more than proven why he deserves a green light. It’s hard to imagine where the Clippers’ scoring would come from if he gets traded, but if the Kawhi Leonard absence lingers too long, it might be worth asking around to see what Powell would return.

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X-Factor: RJ Barrett

This is a self-proclaimed developmental year for Toronto, and nobody looks to have made bigger offseason strides than Barrett. Although he’s missed a few games due to injury, the former Knick is putting up astonishing numbers. 29 points per game? More than seven assists? 46 percent from downtown?

I don’t honestly believe Barrett is an All-NBA player, like his initial stats would suggest, but he also played well for Toronto after the Knicks traded him last year. If Barrett is a fringe All-Star-caliber wing with real shooting chops, the Scottie Barnes/Barrett duo becomes far more intriguing.

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X-Factor: Possessions

Despite another ho-hum otherworldly performance from Giannis Antetokounmpo and a strong offensive start from Damian Lillard, the Milwaukee Bucks are just 1-5. A major culprit: opponents are dominating the possession game.

The Bucks are the league’s worst offensive-rebounding team and second-worst at creating turnovers. In total, foes average 90.8 shots per game compared to Milwaukee’s 26th-ranked 85.7. It’s hard to make up a differential that big, even with stars of this caliber.

Frankly, a lot is happening in Milwaukee, and little is good. Their ranking when we return in two weeks might be the most important story of the early season, because if they’re still bottom-feeding like Mississippi River catfish, the Giannis trade rumors will become deafening.

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X-Factor: Dennis Schroeder

Schroeder isn’t just the Nets’ X-Factor; he’s arguably been their best player this season (with apologies to Cam Thomas, who makes the difficult look easy). He’s putting in oodles of efficient buckets, bagging assists left and right, and generally looking like an above-average starting point guard.

In fact, he might be playing too well. The Nets are 3-4 and have looked far too competent for a front office that’s all in on ping-pong this year. It’s cool that he’s boosting his trade value (although how much he’s worth on an expiring contract remains to be seen), but Brooklyn can’t afford to rack up too many wins.

Truthfully, the Nets have played better than the 25th-best team, but this is a bet that management won’t allow them to maintain those levels for long.

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X-Factor: Jalen Duren

The positives: Duren is an underrated passer with great timing, he gobbles up rebounds like Detroit’s black squirrels hoard acorns, and he’s only missed three shots all season. That’s insane!

The negative: Duren is one of the worst defensive centers in basketball, consistently out of place and out of touch. He never misses shots, but he never takes them, either (which is somewhat the fault of his guards, to be fair) – just four field goal attempts per game. He commits egregious fouls.

It’s year three for Duren. He’s not even old enough to drink yet, but he’s playing for a new coach and a new front office and has shown few signs of progress since his rookie year. If he wants a big-money extension this summer (or any extension at all), he’ll need to show drastic improvement on both sides over the coming months.

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X-Factor: Bilal Coulibaly

Second-year players should not be eligible for the Most Improved Player award, but Coulibaly deserves at least a look.

The young Frenchman has upped his scoring from 8.4 to 19.4 points per game and his eFG% from 50.9 percent to a blinding 69.6 percent. He’s Washington’s best defender, to boot. Even those of us who were high on Coulibaly’s potential before this season (and I was, very, very high) never saw this coming in our wildest dreams.

Yes, he’ll miss some shots eventually, but the fact that he’s even capable of extended stretches like this is very encouraging for a Washington team just beginning its rebuild in earnest.

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X-Factor: Deni Avdija

After the Blazers traded some picks to Washington for Deni Avdija’s services, I said that the winner of that trade would depend entirely upon Avdija’s three-point percentage. If he could be a league-average shooter from deep, it would let the rest of his game flourish: the pell-mell pace, the competitive, physical defense, the nifty playmaking.

Right now, unfortunately, Avdija can’t buy a bucket. He’s shooting just 34 percent overall and 19 percent from deep. Avdija is famously hard on himself, but he needs to get out of his head and return to playing the way he did last year.

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X-Factor: Keyonte George

The Jazz are the only team without a win, and their -17.7 net rating is the worst in the league by a huge margin.

Keyonte George has been a major reason for Utah’s problems. They’re determined to forge the second-year point guard in fire, so he’s being thrust into the flames over and over again. It’s hard to have a functioning offense when your leading shot-taker has an effective field goal percentage of 37.1 percent. All those clanks also kickstart the opposing teams’ transition games, forcing Utah’s already terrible defense on their heels.

The Jazz might be better off letting George carry a smaller burden for a while as he develops.