Mavericks vs. Timberwolves odds, score prediction: 2024 NBA Christmas Day picks, best bets by proven model

The Dallas Mavericks look to win their third game in a row when they take on the Minnesota Timberwolves in a key Western Conference matchup on Christmas Day. Dallas defeated Portland 132-108 on Monday, while Minnesota dropped a 117-104 decision at Atlanta that same night. The Timberwolves (14-14), who are third in the Northwest Division, are 6-8 on the road this season. The Mavericks (19-10), who are third in the Southwest Division, are 10-4 on their home court.

Tipoff from American Airlines Center in Dallas is set for 2:30 p.m. ET. Dallas leads the all-time regular-season series 78-59, including a 120-114 win on Oct. 29. Dallas is a 5-point favorite in the latest Timberwolves vs. Mavericks odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 221.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 10 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 128-92 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen huge returns. 

The model has set its sights on Timberwolves vs. Mavericks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Mavs vs. Wolves:

• Timberwolves vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -5
• Timberwolves vs. Mavericks over/under: 221.5 points   
• Timberwolves vs. Mavericks money line: Timberwolves +178, Mavericks -215
• MIN: Has covered the spread in 23 of its last 36 road games (+8.65 units)
• DAL: Has hit the game total under in 33 of its last 48 home games (+16.50 units)         
• Timberwolves vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Timberwolves vs. Mavericks streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Mavericks can cover

Point guard Luka Doncic continues to dominate. In 21 games, all starts, he is averaging 28.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 8.1 assists and two steals in 36.6 minutes. He has three triple-doubles and six double-doubles on the season. In a 143-133 win at Golden State on Dec. 15, he poured in 45 points, while adding 13 assists, 11 rebounds, three steals and two blocks in 38 minutes. In Monday’s win over Portland, he scored 27 points, while adding seven assists and seven rebounds. Doncic is expected to play through a heel injury on Wednesday. 

Point guard Kyrie Irving has scored 20 or more points in four of the past six games. In the win over the Trail Blazers on Monday, he scored 20 points, while adding three rebounds and two assists. He had 21 points and eight assists in the win at Golden State on Dec. 15. In 26 games, all starts, he is averaging 23.4 points, 5.2 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.2 steals in 35.2 minutes. See which team to pick here.

Why the Timberwolves can cover

Shooting guard Anthony Edwards is one of five Minnesota players averaging 10 points or more. In 28 games, all starts, he is averaging 25.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, four assists and 1.4 steals in 35.8 minutes. He is connecting on 44.4% of his field goals, including 41.4% from 3-point range, and 80.7% of his free throws. In Monday’s loss at Atlanta, he scored 16 points, grabbed six rebounds, dished out four assists and added two steals.  

Power forward Julius Randle has also started all 28 games for the Timberwolves. In 33 minutes per game, he is averaging 20 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists. He is coming off a double-double in the loss at Atlanta, scoring 19 points and adding 13 rebounds with seven assists. He scored 24 points and added five rebounds and three assists in a 133-107 loss to the New York Knicks last Thursday. See which team to pick here.

How to make Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks

The model has simulated Timberwolves vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavs vs. Wolves, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Wolves vs. Mavs spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 128-92 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.