Likeliest 4 Nations Face-Off Final Matchups 4 Games In – The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

The first, Canadian leg of the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament is over, shifting matters to the Boston. Fittingly the USA leads the field and, with two regulation victories in their first two games, they’ve already guaranteed themselves a spot in the final on Feb. 20.

The focus is on the final two round-robin games on Feb. 17. The U.S. takes on Sweden, who have suffered two 4-3 overtime losses for a total of two points, while Canada faces off against Finland, each having won in overtime against Sweden and lost in regulation to the now-host country.

Related: Guide to the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off

Each of those three countries is still alive, but to varying degrees. With that in mind, here are the three possible final opponents for the USA, ranked in order of likelihood:

3) Sweden

It isn’t just that Sweden is facing off against the USA, a proven behemoth on the ice in their final game. Yes, this match-up effectively pits the top team of the tournament against the weakest so far. However, the deck is stacked against the Swedes in more than one way.

Sweden can beat the USA and still miss out on a berth in the championship game, by virtue of the fact that the first tie-breaker is how they fared in head-to-head action against the other team. After all, they’ve lost to both Canada and Finland so far. As a result, things need to shake out one specific way for them to book a rematch against the States after their Feb. 17 game: Win… in regulation and hope the Finland-Canada game goes to overtime, which would give Sweden three additional points on top of their current two for a total of five.

Meanwhile, both Canada and Finland, who each of two points after their initial overtime wins over Sweden, would be limited to a maximum of four. It’s possible, of course. However, the fact Sweden’s fate is no longer in their hands logically puts them at No. 3 here.

2) Finland

It’s more likely whoever wins out between Finland and Canada will get to face the USA again. After all, as long as the match-up, which takes place at 1 pm on Monday, ends in regulation, the USA-Sweden game, which takes place at 8 pm that evening, will technically be unnecessary.

So, it could more realistically come down to which team is better between the two former countries. And, while anything can happen in a one-off match-up, objectively, Canada, which can ice a top line of Sidney Crosby between Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon, which connected seconds into the first game of the tournament on the power play in spectacular fashion, is the superior team.

Stopping short of comparing and contrasting the two rosters player by player, it’s relatively clear Canada has the edge on offense as alluded to immediately above. That’s fairly accurate with regard to their defenses too, even taking into account the tournament-ending injury to Shea Theodore and Cale Makar’s sickness, which prompted Thomas Harley’s emergency call-up.

Simply put, the injuries aren’t really a deciding factor with Finland having sustained several themselves with Urho Vaakanainen, Henri Jokiharju, and Nikolas Matinpalo having been named to the team as replacements for Miro Heiskanen, Jani Hakanpaa and Rasmus Ristolainen, respectively. No disrespect to Esa Lindell and Olli Maatta, but if they’re theoretically your top defensemen against a team icing a line-up that features a one-time Norris Memorial Trophy-winning defenseman in Drew Doughty on the third pairing, you’re in tough, especially if Makar can make a sudden return to action.

1) Canada

Ultimately, the only real advantage Finland has is in net, but that was truer in theory when Juuse Saros was starting. Replaced with backup Kevin Lankinen after the former surrendered six goals against the U.S., Saros is unlikely to see the net again, because how do you move back to him after Lankinen won against Sweden? That line of thinking puts Finland in a bind, because Saros is simply put a better candidate to steal a game.

Now, Canadian starter Jordan Binnington is something of a wild card. He has allowed soft goals, but he’s also produced big saves and wasn’t exactly the reason Canada lost to the States. Ultimately, the U.S. is so incredibly strong on paper, especially in net with the reigning Vezina Trophy winner in Connor Hellebuyck manning the crease that it shouldn’t be a surprise Canada was limited to a single goal against them despite all their star power. Giving up two to the States, like Binnington did, shouldn’t be a disqualifying factor against Finland.

“[It was] two teams that obviously have a lot of respect for each other offensively,” said McDavid after the 3-1 loss to the States. “It comes down to a shot. I think that’s the way we expected it to go. It just didn’t go our way.”

Nor should Binnington’s performance be a disqualifying factor be in the hypothetical rematch against the States. As previously mentioned, anything can happen. Granted, that is true regarding any of the three possible final match-ups listed here. However, there is something to be said for a Canada-USA final having been largely predicted heading into the tournament to start.

If their round-robin game is any indication, it’s also the game most are anticipating with bated breath. That game started off with a bang. This tournament should end with one too.