Lightning More Conservative on Zone Entries to Start Season – The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

Advanced analytics and statistics in hockey have rapidly evolved over the past decade. Websites like EvolvingHockey have introduced player evaluation models such as WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Other sites like HockeyViz have developed colorful, detailed Shot Maps to analyze how a team generates shots. Despite all this work, hockey remains behind other sports like baseball in analytics. It’s difficult to isolate a player’s impact in hockey, as teammates and opponents have too much influence on results.

Related: Tampa Bay Lightning 2024-25 Team Hall of Fame Nominees

However, hockey analytics cannot differentiate the ways that players find success. Do they dump the puck in and win a battle on the forecheck? Do they use their speed to the outside for shots off the rush? Those questions get answered through microstats, which evaluate performance based on tracking detailed aspects of the game. As a writer for the Tampa Bay Lightning, I keep track of microstats to provide the most thorough analysis possible. We will review how the Lightning have done on zone entries this season.

Microstats Tracking Project Background

For some quick background, I plan to hand-track microstats for the Lightning throughout the 2024-25 season. This dataset will include data points such as passes, zone entries, and additional stats the NHL doesn’t cover. I will continue to share my findings throughout the season, so stay tuned for updates.

One of the main game aspects I want to emphasize this season while covering the Lightning is zone entries. As we know, teams that can quickly and efficiently transition up and down the ice are much more effective in the modern NHL, where we see loads of goals being scored off the rush with passing plays. I’ve covered four full games at five-on-five for the Lightning this season (Oct. 11, Oct. 15, Oct. 19, Oct. 22). With that said, who’s been most effective on the rush for the Lightning in 2024-25?

Zone Entries Analysis: Overall Team

The Lightning forward core has a variety of play styles, which makes the offense look dynamic at times. The top six forwards tend to carry in the puck more frequently, while the bottom six forwards prefer to dump the puck. The forwards have attempted to enter the zone 192 times in my four-game sample, with 82 carry-ins, 86 dump-ins, and 24 failed entries. The holy grail of transition is controlled zone entries. Carry-ins off the rush lead to increased odds of scoring goals and entries with passes get the goaltender out of position. Tampa Bay’s forwards have controlled 42.71% of their zone entries this season, compared to a 50.12 controlled entry percentage in the 2023-24 dataset.

On the back end, the defensemen have also been more cautious than last season. After all, the Lightning swapped opportunistic defenders like Mikhail Sergachev for conservative ones like Ryan McDonagh in the offseason. The defensemen have attempted to enter the zone 48 times in my four-game sample, with ten carry-ins, 32 dump-ins, and six failed entries. The blue line has controlled 20.83% of their zone entries, compared to 32.5% last season. Ultimately, the Lightning have played safer this season, but the sample size is still relatively small.

Zone Entries Analysis: Individual Spotlight

As I mentioned earlier, players generate offense in unique styles. No two players in the NHL will find success identically. Players rely on carry-ins, dump-ins, or a combination to generate scoring chances. Let’s break down some of Tampa Bay’s different styles of chance generation.

Carry-In Machines

These players don’t enjoy dumping pucks in the zone and hunting opposing defenders on the forecheck. They want to use their wheels and set up a quick shot on goal. New faces have been relied on as the primary puck carriers on the zone entries. Conor Geekie and Jake Guentzel have been excellent in the offensive transition, controlling a large percentage of their zone entries. The rookie is tied for second on the team in zone entry carry-ins, only behind the perennial zone entry wizard, Brayden Point. Geekie has controlled 84.62% of his entries, which ranks first on the team. Behind him, Point has controlled 62.50% of his entries, and Guentzel sits at 58.82%.

Dump Trucks

On the other hand, “dump trucks” find success by dumping the puck in the corner and winning a battle to gain possession in the offensive zone. That title belongs to players like Brandon Hagel, Nick Paul, and Zemgus Girgensons. These three lead the Lightning in dump-ins on zone entries. Typically, these players will also lead the team in retrievals, which refers to players gaining possession of the puck off a forecheck in the offensive zone. In the 2023-24 dataset, Paul led the Lightning with 39 dump-ins, while Hagel ranked close to the top with 24. In other words, there’s a pattern across multiple seasons of how players generate their offense.

Conclusion: There’s Still More Data to be Tracked

While all this information is critical, it’s important to note that the sample size remains small. The final dataset will have roughly five times the games tracked already, and a larger sample size will allow us to make more accurate conclusions about players. Nevertheless, zone entries (mainly controlled ones) have become a staple for offensive production in the NHL and remain under-covered in analysis by many in the public sphere.