Kai Havertz’s struggles against Man Utd highlight Arsenal’s striker issue but is Mikel Arteta to blame?

Another succession of missed chances, a potentially serious injury to Gabriel Jesus, and a gruelling shootout loss at home to an ailing rival. Sunday’s FA Cup tie against Manchester United could not have gone much worse for Mikel Arteta and Arsenal.

The manner of the defeat, only five days after they were beaten 2-0 by Newcastle in similar circumstances in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg, further highlighted Arsenal’s issues in attack. How did it come to this? Who is to blame? And what needs to happen next?

How bad is the problem?

Kai Havertz was the main offender on Sunday, spooning a glorious chance over the bar in the 88th minute from almost exactly the same spot he put a free header wide with Arsenal’s best opening against Newcastle. He could only bury his face in the turf afterwards.

Havertz is Arsenal’s top scorer with 12 goals in all competitions but, across the last two games, he has had nine shots worth 1.91 expected goals without finding the net.

While his knack for getting into the right positions is an undoubted positive, his wasteful finishing is a familiar problem.

Across the last three seasons, Havertz is one of the Premier League’s biggest underperformers on his expected goals, scoring nearly five fewer than he should have, based on the quality of chances he has had. Jesus, Arsenal’s only other central striker, whose injury leaves them even lighter, has posted similar numbers.

Havertz, like Jesus at Manchester City, had the same problem at his previous club Chelsea. But the 25-year-old is not the only one struggling in front of goal for Arsenal right now.

In total, Arsenal generated chances worth 6.44 expected goals against Newcastle and Manchester United and yet only found the net once, via Gabriel Magalhaes’ deflected effort on Sunday.

Arteta expressed his disbelief at the result afterwards, as he did against Newcastle, saying it was “incredible” that they didn’t win and adding: “We didn’t get what we deserve, clearly.”

He has generally played down Arsenal’s need for more cutting edge in attack. For all their recent struggles, he can also point to respectable numbers for the season overall. As a team, Arsenal have actually overperformed their expected goals this season.

But those statistics do not tell the full story. Arsenal are a formidable outfit from dead-ball situations but they lack difference-makers in open-play.

This was the 14th game out of 31 in all competitions so far in which they have scored a maximum of one goal. Premier League leaders Liverpool, by contrast, have only had four such games out of 29, underlining the gulf in firepower between the two sides.

The loss of Bukayo Saka to injury has accentuated the problem. Arsenal are also without Ethan Nwaneri, while Jesus looks set for a lengthy spell out after being stretchered off on Sunday.

But Arsenal’s attack looked underpowered even before the injuries – the Gunners failed to find the net in eight games in all competitions last season, twice as many as champions Manchester City – and that begs the question as to why the club did not act in the summer.

Summer business under scrutiny

Arsenal’s main recruits in the off-season were of Mikel Merino and Riccardo Calafiori, with Raheem Sterling arriving later on loan. All three have struggled to make a positive impact, with Merino and Calafiori only making 12 starts each, and Sterling just five.

Injuries have not helped. All three have encountered issues, with Calafiori suffering a new setback which ruled him out on Sunday. But there are question marks hanging over them irrespective of injuries. Were they really what Arsenal needed to go to the next level?

Merino, for example, has brought aerial strength and duel-winning ability to Arsenal’s midfield when it was probably in greater need of creativity and goal threat, especially having sold Emile Smith Rowe to Fulham and allowed Fabio Vieira to join Porto on loan.

The club hoped Sterling might bring those qualities in attack when they took the chance to sign him on loan. But it is damning that Arteta has rarely turned to him, even when he has been fit. Halfway into his spell, he has played a paltry 146 Premier League minutes.

He will likely be needed now, with Jesus having joined the injury list. But, like Merino and Calafiori, he has work to do to show he can give Arsenal and Arteta what they need.

Arteta talked up his “love” of his players in the wake of Sunday’s defeat but it is becoming increasingly obvious the only solutions to their attacking issues lie in the transfer market. The problem is that the January window is far tougher to navigate than the summer one.

Is Arteta to blame?

The signings of Merino and Calafiori continued a trend of focusing on defensive recruits under Arteta. The club have only brought in six attacking midfielders or forwards on permanent deals since his appointment compared to 18 defenders, defensive midfielders or goalkeepers.

This is partly down to circumstance. Arteta inherited a defensive unit in need of a total overhaul but had far better tools to work with in attack in the form of Saka and Gabriel Martinelli.

Many supporters, though, feel the imbalance is better explained by the emphasis Arteta places on the defensive side of the game. Arsenal set a club record for goals scored in the Premier League last season but reducing risk at the other end is undoubtedly key to the manager’s philosophy.

Arteta perceived cautiousness has become a bone of contention to many. But he certainly sounded like a man aware of the shortage of firepower up front after the Newcastle game.

“That is what you have when you have the real quality up front,” he said when questioned about the match-winning impact of Alexander Isak. It felt like a pointed comment to the club’s hierarchy about what he is still missing from his squad.

Arsenal’s pursuit of RB Leipzig’s Benjamin Sesko shows that Arsenal did try to strengthen their attack in the summer. The failure to clinch that deal cannot be put on Arteta.

Although influential, he is far from the only one responsible for the club’s recruitment and squad building. Now-departed sporting director Edu, together with the rest of the club’s decision-makers, should be under scrutiny too.

Time to gamble in the market?

Arteta has highlighted the difficulty of finding attainable players who can make Arsenal better. “Bringing in bodies doesn’t help us at all,” he said last week. “It’s about somebody who can immediately impact our performance and bring something we don’t have.”

He has a point, of course. It is no good signing someone for the sake of it. But all signings come with an element of risk. Even the ‘perfect’ player may not produce the desired impact. By the same token, you can be rewarded for gambling on a seemingly imperfect option.

Liverpool’s attack shows why. Diogo Jota, for example, has flourished at Anfield despite having never scored more than nine goals in a Premier League season prior to his move from Wolves.

Darwin Nunez is a long way from justifying his price tag, of course, but Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo, both signed for relatively affordable fees by today’s standards, continue to deliver value for money, the former doing so immediately after his arrival mid-season in 2022.

Then, of course, there is Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian has proved a phenomenal success but, although productive in Italy, he was far from a guarantee when he arrived from Roma having previously failed to make an impact in the Premier League with Chelsea.

There are lessons there for Arsenal.

Already paying the price on the pitch for their failure to strengthen in the summer, they surely cannot allow another window to pass without taking action – even they have to compromise on what they can get.