Juan Soto’s bat is elite, but is he worth $500M?

For context, Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan has ranked among the league’s defensive leaders since his debut, while Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran was worth +12 defensive runs in 2024. Both bring game-changing value in the field that Soto does not.

Speed is another issue. Soto’s below-average sprint speed puts him in the same category as the Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton, a slugger whose defensive and base-running struggles have become glaring liabilities. This matters because Soto’s value hinges entirely on his bat. 

As players age, power declines. A Baseball Prospectus study found that a hitter’s slugging typically peaks at age 28.6, with overall power slightly behind. 

Without his power, Soto projects as a hitter more like Duran or Kwan —solid contact hitters but not franchise-defining forces. Meanwhile, Kwan and Duran offer additional value through their elite fielding and speed, areas where Soto lags significantly.

So why the Ohtani-level hype? Soto’s age is a big factor. He’ll play the 2025 season as a 26-year-old, a rarity for superstar free agents. 

The last comparable case was Alex Rodriguez, who signed a $252M deal in free agency with the Texas Rangers in 2000 at just 25. But A-Rod was an elite shortstop at the time with a 6.6 career dWAR and superior base-running ability. Soto, by comparison, is far less versatile.

Versatility is the keyword here. Baseball is increasingly about players who can impact the game in multiple ways, and Soto’s limitations are hard to ignore. 

His power and plate discipline are phenomenal, but his defensive and base-running shortcomings make him one-dimensional. That’s a stark contrast to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Ohtani, whose unprecedented two-way impact justifies his historic deal. 

Meanwhile, players such as the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts, 32, who excel in multiple facets of the game, demonstrate the value of adaptability as they age. Soto risks becoming a liability sooner than teams might expect without similar versatility.

It’s not that Soto isn’t worth a big contract — he is. But teams considering a record-setting deal must weigh the long-term risks. 

Baseball has been burned by massive contracts before. Just look at Miguel Cabrera, a perennial MVP candidate in his prime who became a financial anchor with the Detroit Tigers in his later years. It’s a cautionary tale for any team considering committing $500M over 10 seasons or more to a player whose value is heavily tied to his bat.

In an era that celebrates analytics, it’s surprising how little attention is being paid to Soto’s defensive and base-running metrics. The numbers are clear: He’s not the versatile superstar that teams have been paying top dollar for in recent years. 

The next team to sign Soto is betting big on four years of peak production. But what happens after that? Can a franchise afford to ignore what the data is already telling us?