Islanders veteran expected to test free agency?

Brock Nelson’s 12-year tenure on Long Island will likely end by the time next summer rolls around. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic writes Thursday that he believes Nelson “intends to test free agency on July 1,” upping the likelihood of the Islanders dealing the pending unrestricted free agent by the trade deadline if they don’t put themselves back in playoff position by then.

Nelson’s production hasn’t been what we’re used to seeing from him in 2024-25. With 10 goals and 20 points through 35 games, he’s on pace for 47 points over an 82-game schedule. On a per-game basis, that would be his worst offensive showing since the 2017-18 campaign. Given he’s now 33 years old, there’s also legitimate concern whether he can recapture the form that led to three straight 30-goal seasons from 2021-22 to 2023-24.

Part of that decline has been fueled by an 11 percent shooting rate, which would be decent for many players but abnormally low by Nelson’s standards. Throughout his 875-game NHL career, he’s usually hovered around his career average of 14.2 percent without much variation. He’s tracking to shoot at his lowest success rate since his first two seasons in the league. It’s also been fueled by a 12-game goalless skid, during which he has just three assists. He had 10 goals and 17 points through his first 24 outings.

But with the Islanders two games back of .500 and coming off perhaps their worst game of the season right before the holiday break, a 7-1 drubbing at home at the hands of the Sabres, whether they’ll be in playoff position by deadline day is becoming less of a debate. MoneyPuck puts the Isles’ playoff odds at 5.8 percent, Hockey Reference gives them a 10.4 percent shot, while The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn gives them a far more optimistic 34 percent chance, boosted by a weak middle-of-the-pack group in this year’s Metropolitan Division.

That means there’s likely too much runway left in the Islanders’ season for general manager Lou Lamoriello to throw in the towel. If history is any indicator, that’s a necessary prerequisite for the club to seriously consider trading Nelson instead of trying to hammer out a deal up until July 1. On the other hand, Nelson said during training camp that he was open to having in-season talks about an extension. Either those haven’t happened or they haven’t been particularly productive, evidently leading him to focus on his options over the summer.

And if he’s genuinely intent on testing the market, not just finding a new home, that’ll impact his trade value by the deadline. Lamoriello won’t be able to land a huge return for him without a team being reasonably confident they’ll retain him for more than just a few months. Nelson also holds a 16-team no-trade list, so if there’s a buyer he’s not interested in joining, he could veto those deals.

LeBrun and Chris Johnston speculated that the Stars and Wild are potential deadline destinations for Nelson. Both also make sense as free-agent landing spots. Minnesota could likely only acquire Nelson at 50 percent retention ($3M cap hit) without moving out a salary. Still, they have over $13M in cap space opening up this summer, thanks to the reduction of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyout penalties. That figure doesn’t include a projected salary cap increase of at least $4M, making them well-positioned to have productive extension talks with star Kirill Kaprizov. 

Nelson, whose age and declining production likely don’t warrant a raise on his current $6M cap hit on a short-to-mid-term deal, would complement Joel Eriksson Ek and Marco Rossi down the middle quite nicely and would likely have interest in returning to his home state. The Stars, meanwhile, project to have far more financial flexibility at the trade deadline but less so over the summer.