How the St. Louis Blues Will Be Affected by the NHL’s Salary Cap Increase – The Hockey Writers St Louis Blues Latest News, Analysis & More

On Jan. 31, the NHL announced the projected increase to the salary cap in the next three seasons, which will significantly affect how the St. Louis Blues shape their roster going forward. In the 2024 offseason, the Blues used the last cap increase to their advantage by extending offer sheets to Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway and acquiring depth players Mathieu and Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Radek Faksa, Alexandre Texier, and Ryan Suter.

Of course, this also came with some patient moves to clear the cap before and after the 2024 Trade Deadline, trading away Robert Bortuzzo to the New York Islanders and Kevin Hayes to the Pittsburgh Penguins, letting Marco Scandella walk in free agency, and placing Jakub Vrana through waivers after a poor performance. However, the Blues are still adjusting the roster. Here’s a look at how the cap will affect the shape of that roster in the next three seasons.

Restricted Free Agents Worth Giving Good Contracts

The Blues have seven roster players who will be restricted free agents (RFA) in the next three seasons when the cap increases. Five are eligible for arbitration, and only two are without arbitration rights. Holloway, Texier, Broberg, Matthew Kessel, and Joel Hofer qualify for arbitration, while Zachary Bolduc and Jake Neighbours don’t.

Of those five players, Holloway, Broberg, and Hofer will look for long-term deals with more money. Holloway and Broberg are having career seasons after struggling to reach more than nine points in all their seasons with the Edmonton Oilers. Holloway is now second on the Blues in points with 38 through 53 games, while Broberg has 15 points through 40 games.

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On the other hand, Hofer will also need a big extension this offseason and his performance will dictate how big it will be. Last season was Hofer’s first full campaign as the team’s backup, and he finished with a record of 15-12-1 with a 2.65 goals against average (GAA), .914 save percentage (SV%), and one shutout through 30 games. This season, he’s on pace for similar results with a record of 10-6-1, a 2.87 GAA, a .903 SV%, and one shutout through 19 games.

All of this leads back to the Blues’ cap situation. In 2025-26, the cap will rise to $95.5 million, with a floor of $70.6 million, meaning the Blues will have plenty to work with on Hofer’s new deal. Remember, they also have unrestricted agents (UFA) to consider, with Faksa, Suter, and Tyler Tucker’s contracts expiring this offseason. Realistically, I would see the Blues letting Tucker and Suter walk because they already have enough depth without them and it would save them $3.8 million in cap space. Tucker hasn’t played more than 20 games this season, and Suter is 40 years old and thus getting very to close to the end of his career.

In 2026-27, Holloway, Texier, and Broberg will enter their arbitration year when the cap is projected to increase to $104 million with a floor of $76.9 million. Thee Blues will have to anticipate what their contracts will look like. Holloway and Broberg could get an increase of about $2-3 million on their current deals if they go to arbitration; Broberg would probably get a little less since he was out for 12 games in November.

At the same time, Texier’s nine points in 27 games this season will make it hard for him to argue for a more significant contract. However, the Blues should be able to afford him, as Cam Fowler and Nick Leddy will be UFAs that year and letting them walk or moving out their salaries would clear $8 million worth of cap space.

Blues Have Long-Term Deals on the Books to Deal With

In addition to Leddy and Fowler, in 2027-28, Torey Krug and Justin Faulk will be UFAs in their mid-30s. The NHL announced the cap for that season will go up to $113.5 million with a floor of $83.9 million. Faulk and Krug take up $13 million worth of cap space combined. If they could find a way to divest o them soon, it would cut a massive chunk out of the Blues’ salary and leave some room for their coming defensemen, such as Theo Lindstein and Adam Jiricek, and to sign someone a little younger to fill in the top roles while Lindstein and Jiricek settle into the development process at the NHL level.

Long-time starting goaltender Jordan Binnington’s contract is expiring in 2027-28 and I don’t see any reason why the Blues would re-sign him. He will be 33 while Hofer will be 27 and most likely in great shape to take over the starting role. Binnington has played below-average this season with a record of 14-19-4, a 2.83 GAA, .899 SV%, and three shutouts. Binnington can be a great shutdown goalie, but by the time his contract is up, the Blues should see no further use for him as a starter.

However, the Blues could trade Binnington in the next two seasons when his modified no-trade clause kicks in. In that case, the team could get something for him and clear out his $6 million cap hit.

The Blues Must Pace Themselves for the Future

The Blues have been very patient with how they use up their cap space, and overall, the following few increases will mitigate the mess that general manager and future president of hockey operations Doug Armstrong caused when he signed Leddy, Faulk, and Krug.

Luckily, the Blues waited long enough for the NHL to make a massive cap increase and can now slowly cut them from the payroll and prepare for their younger talent like Bolduc and Neighbours to join the roster. The Blues also don’t have anyone buried, retained, or bought out, so the future will be bright if management makes good decisions on spending their cap space.