Flyers’ Rebuild Progression Depends on Aleksei Kolosov – The Hockey Writers Flyers Goaltending Latest News, Analysis & More

The Philadelphia Flyers are in a liminal space of sorts. They may have the best goaltending prospect in the world along with a couple of other young options who have NHL starter potential. However, no club is worse between the pipes than they are in the present. Last season, their .884 team save percentage was the worst in the league. With a .866 save percentage in 2024-25 (the worst of any team during the analytics era; since 2007-08), they’re back in the basement.

There’s an awkward timeline here, as the Flyers’ prospects (Egor Zavragin and Carson Bjarnason) won’t be NHL-ready for a bit. It could take several seasons for them to not just have an impact, but enter the league to begin with. In the meantime, the Orange and Black could be depending on one netminder in particular: Aleksei Kolosov.

The Flyers’ Current Predicament

Philadelphia’s current starter is Samuel Ersson, a 25-year-old who has 80 appearances in his career. Unfortunately, he has seen his play crumble since he transitioned from a backup to the team’s starter. Since that change (Jan. 21, 2024), he has the worst save percentage among the 59 netminders with at least 20 games played at .874. This is despite the Flyers being above league average in their rate of shot attempts, shots, expected goals, high-danger chances, and high-danger shots allowed.

Ivan Fedotov is the second of three goaltenders with time spent in Philadelphia this season, but things have gone just as poorly. If we lower the games played requirement of that previous stat to 10 since Jan. 21, the 28-year-old’s .866 save percentage is the second-worst of the 72 qualified goalies.

It’s hard to envision either of these two being a true starting goaltender until 19-year-old Zavragin, in particular, is ready. His contract in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) doesn’t expire until the end of 2026-27. Bjarnason will likely spend another year in juniors and then harness his game in the American Hockey League (AHL), so there won’t be much help here, either. He seems to be a tier or two below the former, but he didn’t make Canada’s 2025 World Junior Championship roster by accident.

The front office wasn’t explicitly calling it that at the time, but the Flyers have arguably been rebuilding for four seasons now, starting in 2021-22. With rookie Matvei Michkov putting up 27 points in his first 33 games, it likely won’t be long before he explodes into superstardom. If and when that happens, that will be the Flyers’ cue to ice a more competitive product around their young star. The Orange and Black have hovered right around the playoff bubble over the past two seasons, so that extra boost—more forward talent, specifically—could shoot them into contention sooner than later.

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However, the goaltending they’re getting will hold them back no matter what they do. Other than blind faith, there’s no reason to believe Ersson and Fedotov are an NHL-caliber duo. At the same time, would it make sense to spend big assets on a quality starter to have a sense of direction while they wait for Zavragin and Bjarnason to grow? Philadelphia can’t spend three more seasons with nothing more than wildcard aspirations, especially considering Michkov’s not-so-distant prime. Moving the needle is kind of a must, but getting a goalie may not be a worthwhile use of assets in the long term.

Kolosov Is the Only Solution

This is where Kolosov comes in. The 22-year-old is a highly athletic goaltender who could be a starter someday. His numbers weren’t exactly dominant in the KHL (as opposed to Zavragin) and his .878 save percentage with the Flyers may lead the team but it still isn’t great. However, he is the last hope barring an aggressive trade.

With his youth and upside, Kolosov could be the solution to the Flyers’ netminding conundrum. Consistency is what separates the elite from the average—it’s something the youngster has struggled with, but this is kind of a freebie season for him anyway. Kolosov has had terrific moments and some rookie mistakes. It’s to be expected.

There’s a world where Kolosov becomes the full-time starter as soon as this season—Ersson is dead-last in goals saved above expected (minus-11.8). The 22-year-old could use more experience with a semi-relaxed workload, but getting to take that jump might be a great opportunity for him. After all, he played quite a lot in the KHL.

It’s unclear what Kolosov will be at the NHL level. There’s hope he can be that starter the Flyers need in their transitional period. Perhaps he can even be the guy when all is said and done. Regardless, it seems likely that they will be leaning on him over the next few seasons. Unless Ersson or Fedotov magically flip a switch, it’ll be the youngster who will be carrying the bulk of responsibility between the pipes for a bit.

The Flyers have some uncertainty in a vital position. However, Kolosov isn’t a bad player to bank on. He has elite upside, it’s just a question of whether he can reach it. As he gets more NHL experience, Philadelphia will come closer to finding out if they can depend on him while Zavragin and Bjarnason develop.

Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (unless specified otherwise)