F1 2025: Are Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, George Russell all in title hunt?

“It should be one of the greatest seasons in Formula 1 history.”

The tantalising expectation expressed by Martin Brundle during a recent Sky Sports News interview in an early preview of a 2025 season that already sparkles with promise and anticipation even before a single wheel has been turned by one of the grid’s 10 new soon-to-be-launched cars.

The countdown to pre-season testing in Bahrain at the end of February, and then the first race in Australia on March 16, finally truly starts to ramp up over the next week, with Williams taking the wraps of their latest car – albeit in a one-off livery – on Friday before next Tuesday’s first-of-its-kind all-team and driver event at London’s O2 proves the centrepiece of a launch season with a difference.

Max Verstappen will start the year aiming to become just the second driver after Michael Schumacher to win the drivers’ title five years in succession but Red Bull’s reigning champion may face his toughest quest for the crown since winning his first in 2021…

What the second half of the 2024 season told us

So what offers the prospect of a wide-open, true multi-driver championship fight this time given the same driver has won the last four world titles, two with absolute dominance and the last with the comfort of two races still to spare.

Well, for exhibit A, we give you the drivers’ points standings from the second half of last season.

While the impressive Verstappen ultimately finished a comfortable 63 points clear of second-placed Lando Norris in the standings despite resurgent McLaren ending Red Bull’s reign as constructors’ champions, much of the leg work towards the Dutchman’s fourth consecutive title had been done in the campaign’s first half.

Verstappen won seven of the first 10 races and was already a dominant 84 points ahead of Norris, and more than 100 clear of everyone else, by the time the 24-race season reached its halfway point after July’s British Grand Prix where the Dutchman finished second to Lewis Hamilton.

The next 12 races, however, to the end of the campaign in Abu Dhabi in December painted a very different picture.

Top points scorers in final 12 races of 2024 season (Hungary-Abu Dhabi)

• 1. Charles Leclerc – 206 points – 2 wins
• 2. Lando Norris – 203 points – 3 wins
• 3. Max Verstappen – 182 points – 2 wins
• 4. Oscar Piastri – 168 points – 2 wins
• 5. Carlos Sainz – 144 points – 1 win
• 6. George Russell – 134 points – 1 win
• 7. Lewis Hamilton – 113 points – 1 win

Having been almost unbeatable for much of the previous two years in his Red Bull, Verstappen won just twice more and was only the third highest-scoring driver from the Hungarian GP onwards

Instead it was Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc who top scored over the final dozen rounds, with Norris a close second.

Leclerc scored 206 points, just three more than Norris but 24 more than Verstappen. In all, the final 12 race wins were shared between the top seven drivers with no one claiming more than Norris’ three.

Furthermore, had the points been reset from that summer Budapest race onwards, then four drivers – Leclerc, Norris, Verstappen and Oscar Piastri in the second McLaren – would have gone into the Abu Dhabi finale with a shot at the title.

Of course, a season’s points tallies don’t ever reset halfway through a season, so it is a purely illustrative example of F1’s increasing competitiveness – but a tantalising one nevertheless. The narrative heading into the new campaign, of course, has been further fuelled by mass changes to the grid’s 10 line-ups, with Hamilton’s move to join Leclerc at Ferrari the headline match-up.

Teenage rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli joins Russell at a new-look Mercedes, with Liam Lawson promoted to the seat next to Verstappen after the struggling Sergio Perez finally lost his Red Bull drive.

“We’ll see if Red Bull have recovered their car. That’s the key thing,” suggested Brundle on one of the key early questions to come in pre-season testing.

“If Red Bull have recovered their car and Verstappen’s on form, he’ll still be the man to beat for the title because Piastri could take points off Norris and Hamilton and Leclerc could take points off each other.”

The consequence of static regulations and the law of diminishing returns

The coming season marks the fourth – and final – campaign of the current regulation era.

Next year F1’s technical rulebook is turned upside down for 2026 in a way arguably never quite seen before owing to simultaneous changes to both the chassis and engine regulations.

Before then, though, and history has tended to show that the deeper into a static regulation era F1 goes the closer the racing gets and the more competitive the battle for wins becomes.

“The regulations are very mature so we’re not expecting one team to suddenly jump ahead,” said Brundle of 2025’s likely competitive picture.

“They are reaching the peak in this last season of how these cars can perform.”

With little long-term value in teams pursuing season-long car development this time owing to the lack of carry-over parts into 2026, the flip should mean that if 2025 starts as close as is hoped, then it is likely to stay that way all the way through the 24-race campaign.

‘Mega’, ‘epic’ – what the leading teams are predicting

Speaking to Sky Sports at various pre-season events in recent weeks, team bosses at some of the leading outfits have been singing from a very similar hymnsheet with regards to what to expect in the new season.

Zak Brown, McLaren: “[Lando’s] definitely one of the favourites. I’d put Oscar in there, Max in there. Charles in there, Lewis in there, George in there.

“I think Kimi [Antonelli] is probably going to win a race or two, though obviously, as a rookie, it will be tough to put together 24 races without having a few rookie days. Liam [Lawson] I’m sure will be strong, and don’t rule out Fernando [Alonso]… so I think it’s going to be an epic season.”

Christian Horner, Red Bull: “I think it’s going to be a mega year. I think that McLaren had a strong year last year, but we still won more individual races than any other driver, almost double.

“Max will be tough to beat, but we don’t underestimate the opposition.”

Toto Wolff, Mercedes: “I think this year could be the same again that three, four, five teams are really close to each other fighting – which is good news for the sport – and at the same time balancing development for next year. It’s going to be quite interesting how the priorities are set.”

When will we find out more about where teams stand?

It is the three days of testing in Bahrain on February 26-28 that will, as ever, start to provide the first clues and the hints at an early-season pecking order.

However, this year even then that will just be the evidence of car performance on a track which does not stage the first Grand Prix given that for the first time since 2020, the first race of the season is not also in Bahrain.

Australia’s Albert Park – a very different track to Sakhir – hosts the March 16 opener with Bahrain’s Grand Prix not taking place until the fourth round in April.

“It should be so close and whoever wins it will win a great championship,” said Brundle.

“But until we see the cars on track, and probably not until the Saturday of Melbourne, the first race, where they are low fuel, flat out, fresh tyres, giving it everything will we truly know the pace of who’s just aced it. Then it’s about who’s still fast 30, 50, 60 laps into a grand prix.

“I think it’s very brave to write anybody off or write anybody into a championship-winning position.”

Watch all 24 race weekends from the 2025 Formula 1 season live on Sky Sports F1, starting with the Australian GP on March 14-16. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – No contract, cancel anytime